EUR/USD 1.04923
0.306%
Gold 2941.82
0.245%
Oil 70.121
-0.041%
USD/JPY 149.409
0.187%
GBP/USD 1.26442
0.111%
GBP/JPY 188.916
0.298%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On February 24, it was reported that the shares sold to retail investors in the Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO) of Mixue Group had recorded HK$839.3 billion in margin loans from brokerage firms alone.After the German election, Germanys 10-year government bond yield rose 2 basis points to 2.48%.On February 24, Han Wenxiu, director of the Central Rural Work Office, said at a press conference that keeping the bottom line of not returning to poverty on a large scale is not just an annual task this year, but must be kept for a long time and permanently after the transition period. Here I can tell you clearly that after the transition period, the assistance policy will not be "brake", but it will be improved by classification, and a sound institutional mechanism for normalized assistance will be established. The Party Central Committee has clear general requirements and directions for continuing to assist low-income rural populations and underdeveloped areas. This time, the Central Document No. 1 proposed to coordinate the establishment of a mechanism to prevent rural re-poverty and a stratified and classified assistance system for low-income populations and underdeveloped areas. At present, we are organizing an overall assessment of the five-year transition period for consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation and effectively connecting rural revitalization. On the basis of the assessment, we will optimize and improve the various assistance policies by classification.On February 24, HSBC Research published a report stating that Lenovo Group (00992.HK) benefited from a one-time income tax credit of US$282 million, and its earnings per share in the third quarter ended December last year was 5.75 US cents, which was 59% and 98% higher than the banks and market expectations. The gross profit margin of 15.7% in the last quarter was lower than the banks expectations, but in line with market expectations. The operating profit margin of 3.7% was also lower than the banks expectations, but in line with market expectations. The report said that Lenovos market positioning is good, with AI PC market share reaching 30% in the current fiscal quarter. Since AI PCs have a 20% premium over traditional notebook computers, they are expected to continue to support Lenovos profit margin improvement in fiscal years 2025 to 2026. In addition, the bank expects Lenovos AI servers to have considerable profits in the next fiscal year. The ISG business (server) benefited from strong demand in the last fiscal quarter, and its operating profit turned from loss to profit, beating market expectations. The bank raised its valuation basis for Lenovo from a forecast price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times in fiscal 2026 to 13.5 times, and expects the average annual compound growth rate of earnings to reach 16% from fiscal 2025 to 2027. It maintained a buy rating and raised its target price from HK$12.2 to HK$15.1.On February 24, Goldman Sachs published a report stating that Xpeng Motors (09868.HK) delivered 92,000 new energy passenger vehicles in the last quarter of last year, up 52% year-on-year and 97% quarter-on-quarter. The banks market share of new energy passenger vehicles in the mainland increased from 1.5% in the previous quarter to 2.4%, mainly driven by MONAM03 and P7+. The bank expects Xpengs revenue in the last quarter of last year to be 16 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year and 59% quarter-on-quarter. The bank expects economies of scale to offset the impact of the lower pricing of MONAM03; and expects gross profit in the last quarter to reach 2.2 billion yuan, up 169% year-on-year and 41% quarter-on-quarter. Gross profit margin is expected to reach 13.5%, up 7.3% year-on-year and down 1.7% quarter-on-quarter. The bank expects Xpeng to have an EBIT loss of 2 billion yuan in the last quarter and a non-GAAP net loss of 1.4 billion yuan. The bank lowered its non-GAAP net profit forecast for Xpeng by 2% to 6% in 2024 and 2025 to reflect the lower gross profit margin due to the increase in Mona sales, but raised its non-GAAP net profit forecast by 2% to reflect the positive operating leverage. The bank extended the valuation basis by one year, and the target price was raised from HK$50 to HK$57, with a neutral rating.

EUR/USD Recovers from 50-Day SMA as US NFP Report Is Released

Drake Hampton

Apr 01, 2022 10:17

Discussion Points Regarding the EUR/USD Rate

The EUR/USD is struggling to hold its gains from earlier this week after testing the 50-Day SMA (1.1173), and new data prints from the US may weigh on the currency, as the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show more improvement in the job market.

 

With the US NFP report on the horizon, the EUR/USD is reversing from its 50-day moving average.

 

EUR/USD falls from a new weekly high (1.1185) as European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane calms speculation about a monetary policy shift, stating that "the degree of monetary policy stimulus put in place to address the pre-pandemic challenge of persistent below-target inflation can be gradually normalised towards a more neutral setting."

 

Lane continues, "the calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect our evolving assessment of the outlook," implying that the Governing Council is not in a hurry to normalize monetary policy, as the board member insists that "any adjustments to our interest rates will be gradual."

 

As a result, diverging monetary policy paths may continue to produce headwinds for EUR/USD as the Federal Reserve plans to implement a series of rate hikes over the coming months, and the NFP report may push the central bank to normalize monetary policy at a faster pace as the economy is expected to add 490K jobs in March.

 

image.png 

 

At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent during the same period, the lowest reading since February 2020, and this development may force the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust its exit strategy at the next interest rate decision on May 4, as the central bank "expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting."

 

Until then, the EUR/USD may struggle to maintain its gain from the yearly low (1.0806) as the FOMC normalizes policy ahead of its European counterpart, while the retail mood tilt appears certain to continue, as traders have been net-long the pair since the middle of February.

 

image.png 

 

The number of traders net-long is 9.25 percent greater than yesterday and 10.55 percent lower than the previous week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.67 percent lower than yesterday and 1.78 percent lower than the previous week. The decrease in net-long interest has reduced crowding behavior, as 63.95 percent of traders were net-long EUR/USD earlier this week, while the decrease in net-short position comes as the currency manages to test the 50-Day SMA (1.1173).

 

Having said that, the EUR/USD may continue to pull back from the moving average as the US NFP report is expected to show further improvement in the labor market, and the advance from the yearly low (1.0806) may turn out to be a correction in the broader trend given the ECB and FOMC's diverging paths.

Suggestion