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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Dow Jones, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, EU CPI, BOJ, and US GDP for the Week Ahead

Drake Hampton

Apr 25, 2022 10:49

For the fourth consecutive week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell nearly 2% as risk sentiment deteriorated rapidly into the weekend. The catalyst appeared to be a discernible increase in the Fed's rhetoric about significantly tightening policy in response to soaring inflation that threatens to undermine the economic recovery. Rate traders responded by increasing their bets on 50 basis point rate hikes via overnight index swaps, which currently price in complete 50 basis point raises for the next three FOMC meetings. The preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for the United States is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, which will indicate how much the economy increased in March.

 

This resulted in a rebound rout in Treasuries, which spread to the rest of the world's financial markets. Government bond yields increased across the board, from UK Gilts to German Bunds. The French election this weekend may result in some European bond repricing, but the impact is likely to be minor in the event of a Macron victory. A Le Pen triumph, on the other hand, would almost certainly have a rattling effect, although polls indicate that is an improbable prospect. Eurozone inflation data for the first quarter may spark some volatility trading in EUR/USD. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists anticipate Q1 core inflation to be 3.1 percent year on year.

 

The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars fell against the Greenback in the Asia-Pacific region. Australia is expected to release its first-quarter inflation figures, with analysts anticipating an increase to 4.6 percent from 3.6 percent year over year. A stronger-than-expected reading could spark a recovery in the battered AUD/USD pair. A broad decline in metal prices weighed on sentiment around the Australian Dollar, which remains under pressure due to continued Chinese lockdowns.

 

USD/JPY could witness a turnaround following Thursday's Bank of Japan policy meeting outcome. The central bank has been assertive in recent months in attempting to contain bond yields, and no adjustment in the benchmark rate is expected this week. However, a change to the central bank's inflation targets may result in some currency repricing. Last week, options traders began to unwind bearish bets on the Yen, as demonstrated by a decline in one-week risk reversals. Another significant focus is the Bank of England's rate hike bets, following a bad batch of statistics that put doubt on the United Kingdom's economic recovery, with retail sales and PMIs falling short of expectations.

Weekly Performance of the US Dollar Against Currencies and Gold

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