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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Does the price of gold have a bottom, or is it just a brief easing of selling pressure

Alina Haynes

Jul 08, 2022 11:58

 截屏2022-07-08 上午11.24.58.png

 

But there was no significant upward movement, no greater high than the day before, and no unmistakable sign that the current selling pressure had subsided. Instead, it appears that market investors are waiting to see what the upcoming two important data on inflation and employment will reveal.

 

The U.S. Labor Department will release the nonfarm payroll jobs data for June tomorrow, which will be the first significant report. The most recent inflationary figures will be released the next week when the BEA releases the CPI (Consumer Price Index) for the previous month. The confidence that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates again this month is being anticipated by market players.

 

The current discussion, however, centers on whether the Fed would maintain its strong approach by simply hiking rates by 50 basis points, as opposed to implementing another 75-basis point rate hike, as it did in June. The Federal Reserve will continue to batten down the hatches as they have since March, regardless of what the employment and inflation reports show.

 

There is no disagreement, according to the FedWatch tool from the CME. This is due to the FedWatch tool's forecast that there is a 93.9 percent likelihood that the Fed would maintain its strong approach to combating inflation by implementing back-to-back rate rises of 34 percent.

 

The dual goals of achieving maximum employment and keeping inflation within a target range of 2 percent are no longer the Federal Reserve's primary concerns. Recent Federal Reserve FOMC remarks and minutes amply demonstrate the central bank's laser-like concentration on containing inflation, with full awareness that the escalating rate rises will cause an economic slowdown and a decline in the labor force.

 

Analysts and market players have been worried about this approach because they believe it would cause economic instability and a recession. According to the most recent consensus, employment growth is still strong but shrinking. This data is expected to show that there were about 272,000 new jobs added last month and that the unemployment rate remained constant at 3.6 percent.

 

The BEA will present the most recent inflation figures on Wednesday, July 13. We may anticipate that inflationary pressures will continue to run high with a potential spike when compared to the preceding month, if the most recent inflationary figures from Europe are any indicator of what the CPI report will show next week.

 

According to the most current economic data, the US economy has gotten worse, and consumer confidence has plummeted. However, it is also obvious that the Federal Reserve will continue to hike rates this month and in September in order to pursue its goal of bringing inflation down from its present high levels and 40-year highs.

 

It is most definitely a reasonable assumption that the current selling pressure in gold has not subsided given the extremely high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will implement a second straight rate rise of 75 basis points at the end of this month.