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Real-time News
According to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), a Qatari delegation has arrived in Tehran to mediate the situation between the United States and Iran.June 10th - U.S. core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month in May, below market expectations of 0.3%, causing U.S. Treasuries to strengthen slightly as bond traders maintained their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year. The data was seen as easing some pressure on the Fed ahead of Kevin Warshs first meeting as Fed chair next week. Following the CPI release, most U.S. Treasury yields fell less than one basis point. The two-year Treasury yield, more sensitive to short-term monetary policy changes, was at 4.11%, down from around 4.13% earlier in the session. Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, said, "This gives the Fed a little breathing room."June 10th - The US unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4% in February and 4.2% in May, taking only three months to surge from 2.4% to 4.2%.June 10 - Goldman Sachs Asset Management strategist Tim Urbanowicz stated that while the recent surge in overall and core inflation is significant and poses headwinds to the economy and cyclical sectors, the driving force from the AI investment cycle, the potential benefits of the Beauty Act, and the lagged effects of the Federal Reserves rate cuts continue to provide strong support.June 10th - US May CPI data showed inflation surging to a three-year high, but a moderate rise in core prices eased Wall Streets concerns about interest rate hikes. Todays CPI data and tomorrows PPI index are expected to influence the Federal Reserves policy stance, which will be announced at the Fed meeting chaired by Warsh for the first time in a week. According to CME FedWatch, prior to the release of the CPI inflation data, the market had already priced in a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of 2026. However, the market believes that a rate hike at next weeks meeting is highly unlikely, with only a 13% probability of a rate hike at the July meeting. The short-term focus is on whether the Fed will clearly shift from an easing stance to a neutral or tightening stance at the upcoming meeting. This weeks CPI and PPI inflation data, as well as the progress of US-Iran negotiations, may influence the balance between neutral and tightening.
