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On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that due to the strong reaction of some US trading partners to the new tariffs and the widespread uncertainty, European economic sentiment in the second quarter may be worse than we previously expected. We lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in the euro area and the UK in the second quarter by 0.1 percentage point to 0.1% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively. This will lower our annual forecast for the euro area economy in 2025 to 0.9%, and our economic forecast for the UK in 2025 and 2026 to 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively.April 6, Germanys Berenberg Bank said that tariff uncertainty has not yet reached its peak. Trumps tariff shock has laid the foundation for negotiations. As long as the results of Trumps negotiations with various countries are unknown, companies around the world may hesitate to invest in the United States or its most affected trading partners. The failure of these negotiations may lead to rounds of tit-for-tat retaliation. Trump may also add new tariffs on specific industries, including medicines, which have so far been exempt from his reciprocal tariffs. We assume that in response to rising US inflation, economic turmoil and threats of retaliation, the United States will negotiate to cancel about half of its new tariffs on Europe by the end of the second quarter. Otherwise, the bank said it would have to further lower its forecasts for US and eurozone growth.The strong earthquake in Myanmar has killed 3,564 people, injured 5,012 people, and left 210 people missing.On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that downward pressure on US economic growth has intensified. Based on the reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday, the sharp decline in US stocks (US households exposure to the stock market has reached a record high), and the continued rise in uncertainty that has hindered corporate investment and employment plans, we have lowered our forecast for US real GDP growth in 2025 from 2.3% to 1.7%, and GDP in 2026 from 2.0% to 1.6%. Due to the increase in tariffs and the recent rise in inflation expectations, we expect US inflation (measured by core PCE) to reach 3.0% in 2025, compared with the previous forecast of 2.7%.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Starmer in London on April 24.

Crypto winter may temper fintech earnings

Jimmy Khan

Aug 04, 2022 14:41

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Wall Street has lowered earnings expectations for once high-flying fintechs Coinbase and Block, as a chill in the cryptocurrency market adds more pain to the companies already grappling with surging costs and rapidly rising rates.


Crypto exchange Coinbase is expected to report an adjusted loss in the second quarter, while Jack Dorsey-led payments company Block is likely to post a 70% drop in adjusted profit.


Coinbase, which has the biggest exposure to crypto volatility, has lost more than three quarters of its market capitalization this year.


“For Coinbase, this is going to be a very difficult 12 to 18 months,” said Dan Dolev, senior analyst, fintech equity research at Mizuho Securities USA.


Block, which changed its name from Square last year to better reflect its focus on blockchain, has lost over half of its market value amid the stock market rout this year.

The context

The cryptocurrency selloff has dragged down multiple companies in the sector, with some even seeking bankruptcy protection. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has nearly halved in value in the first seven months of the year.


“There could be potential for double digit headcount reduction (at Coinbase) at some point because the cost is too high,” Dolev said.


Estimate cuts and competitive pressures are also contributing to the weakness in fintech stocks, according to Credit Suisse analysts.


The cryptocurrency sector may be slowly emerging from a bruising selloff, but they still have to contend with regulatory hurdles in the United States, the biggest market for such assets.


Online trading app Robinhood Markets Inc reported a 44% plunge in second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, a day earlier than expected, and said it would also cut 23% of its workforce.