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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Copper exhibits a five-day downward trend as economic worries supplant China's production decline

Daniel Rogers

Sep 01, 2022 15:26

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Copper price is on the bears' radar as it falls for the fifth straight day and remains under pressure near the one-month low heading into the European session on Thursday. The latest weakening in the red metal may be attributable to negative data from the world's leading producers as well as coronavirus in the world's largest metal consumer, China. In doing so, the quotation disregards a decline in output at one of the commodity's primary producers, Chile.

 

Copper futures on the COMEX declined more than 1.0% to $3.4790 at the time of publication, while depicting the movements. Reuters reported that as of 02:13 GMT, a three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was down 0.8% to $7,742.50 a tonne, extending losses from the previous session. The metal contract for October on the Shanghai Futures Exchange falls about 1.6%.

 

However, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI had the lowest readings in three months, indicating a contraction in activity, with a figure of 49.5, compared to 50.2 expected and 50.4 previously. In doing so, the private manufacturing indicator mirrors the official NBS PMI and reveals the bleak conditions at the largest industrial actor on the planet. On the same line, the US ADP Employment Change increased by 132K, compared to 288K anticipated and 270K previously.

 

Recent market sentiment appears to be weighed down by rumors of another ship obstructing the Suez Canal prior to the recent refloat, pessimism over China's covid conditions, and disputes with the United States over Taiwan. Recently, Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-Wen, stated Taiwan's desire to strengthen its chip sector partnership with the United States.

 

Elsewhere, hawkish Fed wagers add to the industrial metal's load. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September rate hike of 75 basis points has increased to 74.0% from 73.0% yesterday.

 

Alternately, forthcoming details of China's stimulus and an 8.6% YoY decline in the output of the world's largest copper producer, Chile, during the month of July appear to challenge copper bears.

 

While market anxieties and expectations of a decline in demand and a stronger US dollar are bearish for metal prices, headlines around the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which is predicted to be 52.8 versus 52.0 before, could delight traders ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report (NFP).