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Futures News, August 6th: 1. Strong winds and rain are expected in the Philippine Islands. Influenced by the long-distance moisture transport from Typhoon Whale (No. 14) and Typhoon Dolphin (No. 13), along with the southwest monsoon, the central and northern Philippines will experience continuous heavy rainfall. This precipitation event is characterized by its long duration and large cumulative rainfall. Over the next three days, moderate to heavy rain is expected in the central and northern Philippines, with heavy to torrential rain in most parts of Luzon and Mindoro, and locally extremely heavy rain in northwestern Luzon. The cumulative rainfall in these areas is expected to be 80-150 mm, with some areas receiving 180-250 mm, and locally exceeding 300 mm in northwestern Luzon. Gale-force winds of level 6-8, with gusts of level 9-10, are expected in the central and northern Philippines and surrounding waters. In addition, over the next three days, moderate to heavy rain is expected in the central and northern parts of the Indochina Peninsula, northern and southwestern coastal areas of India, and Bangladesh, with localized torrential rain or heavy downpours, accompanied by short-duration heavy precipitation, thunderstorms, and strong winds. 2. High temperatures will persist across many parts of Asia, Europe, and North America. Over the next three days, influenced by a high-pressure ridge, parts of South Korea, southern Japan, southern Mongolia, central and western Southern Europe, eastern Central Europe, southern Eastern Europe, the Midwestern United States, and northern Mexico will experience temperatures above 35°C, with some areas exceeding 40°C. High temperatures in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Afghanistan, central and southern Pakistan, southern Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia will reach 40-42°C, with some areas exceeding 45°C.US Vice President Vance: There is no disagreement with President Trump on the Iran issue, and we are working to implement his decisions.US Vice President Vance: Energy prices will fall, Iran will not have nuclear weapons, and we will be in a more advantageous position.U.S. Vice President Vance: The Iranians are tough to deal with, but their regime is fractured, and our mission is to achieve the best possible outcome for the American people.Artificial Intelligence: 1. Jeff Dean, a key figure in Googles AI efforts, leaves to found an AI startup. 2. Microsofts latest disclosure shows that its AI revenue primarily comes from OpenAI. 3. Meta launches its first programmable intelligent agent, Muse Code, which can work in conjunction with Muse Spark 1.2. 4. Cloudflare announces the launch of open-source "CloudflareOS": an open platform for AI agents and enterprise work. 5. Metas MUSE SPARK 1.1 model hacked into a companys system and made changes to its internal systems. Integrated Circuits (Chips): 1. Yu Chengdong: High memory prices may lead to large-scale price increases for mobile phones. 2. Reports indicate that Changxin rejected Apples price pressure, insisting on prices no lower than Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. 3. US media: Anthropic confirms it is building an internal chip team for Claude. 4. After distributing bonuses to employees, Samsung and SK Hynix pledged to increase shareholder returns. 5. SanDisk expects revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, compared to market expectations of $10.8 billion. Other: 1. Alibabas 2026 Yunqi Conference is scheduled to be held in Hangzhou from September 22nd to 24th. 2. Nikita Bier announced her resignation as head of the X product line, but will remain with the company as an advisor.

As oil prices fall and investors become risk-averse before the BOC meeting, USD/CAD rises to 1.3200

Daniel Rogers

Sep 07, 2022 16:50

截屏2022-09-07 上午11.31.45.png 

 

The USD/CAD has risen for three consecutive trading days, and it is currently trading near 1.3190, which is the weekly high. To appease buyers near the highest levels in two months prior to the Bank of Canada (BOC) Monetary Policy Meeting, the Loonie pair has recently been applauding rising rates and a risk-aversion wave.

 

Declining prices of WTI crude oil, Canada's principal export, further strengthen the USD/CAD exchange rate as speculators anticipate the fifth BOC rate hike in 2022.

 

WTI crude oil prices have dropped to their lowest level since late January, down 1.70 percent to $85.40 as of press time on the back of recession worries and a stronger US dollar. Market perceptions of the latest production cut by OPEC and its partners, including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, could add to the downward pressure on commodity prices.

 

In addition to the covid-related pessimism in China and the European energy crisis, improved US data strengthened the hawkish Fedbets and boosted the US dollar.

 

In the United States, the ISM Services PMI rose to 56.7 from 55.1 and above market expectations. In contrast to initial expectations of 45.0 and 44.1, the S&P Global Composite PMI and Services PMI both fell to 44.6 and 43.7, respectively. Still, following the news, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a new 20-year high. There is now a 72.0% possibility of a 50 bps rate hike by the Fed in September, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 57.0% the day before.

 

The three-day surge in rates for 10-year US Treasuries to 3.25 percent is the highest it has been since June 15. The S&P 500 futures have also dropped to a new seven-week low, falling 0.55 percent intraday to 3,890.

 

The stronger U.S. dollar, declining oil prices, and reduced risk appetite should keep USD/CAD bulls optimistic despite the BOC's expected base rate increase of 75 basis points to 3.25 percent. Consolidating recent gains may be possible for the Canadian currency, however, thanks to hawkish comments from the BOC Rate Statement and softer Fedspeak.