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Futures News on February 24: Last Friday, the international commodity market generally fell, and the performance of crude oil can be described as diving, with a drop of more than 3%. 1. Obviously, even though crude oil has risen for several days before, it is still not a variety suitable for strong thinking. The latest data shows that the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States has increased by 7, indicating that Trump will implement his previous promise to reduce energy prices by increasing production, thereby easing inflation. At the same time, senior officials from the United States and Russia have recently had a series of positive contacts. In addition to the war issue, the repair of bilateral relations between the two countries is also discussed as a core issue. This will obviously make the market believe that the relationship between the two countries will warm up, and Russias previous crude oil export sanctions will be gradually lifted. Once the support from the supply side fades, oil prices will easily fall. After all, in the context of the transformation of the global energy industry, the market and major institutions are not very optimistic about the demand prospects for crude oil. The recent rumor that OPEC+ will postpone the production increase plan again is actually a good confirmation. 2. Then, for the 04 contract of WTI crude oil, we need to focus on whether $70 can be held. For the 04 contract of Brent crude oil, $74 is a very important price barrier. Once it cannot be held and is broken downward, it is a pattern signal in technical analysis that the decline may continue.On February 24, the article stated that innovation is endless and policy support also needs to be continuously optimized. There is still room for improvement in the intensity and efficiency of fiscal and taxation forces to support scientific and technological innovation. In terms of intensity, we will coordinate financial resources, increase investment in science and technology, further focus on basic research and national strategic scientific and technological tasks, and fully support the key core technology research. In terms of efficiency, we will deepen the reform of the mechanism for the allocation and use of fiscal science and technology funds, improve the performance of fund use, and give full play to the leverage effect of fiscal funds. Research and improve the structural tax reduction and fee reduction policies that focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and the development of the manufacturing industry, study the tax system that is compatible with the new business format, promote policies that are more in line with the demands of the market and enterprises, improve the accuracy of policies, promote the direct and quick enjoyment of policy dividends, and help enterprises innovate and develop.According to German news today: Lindner, chairman of the German Free Democratic Party, announced his withdrawal from politics.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated the CDU/CSU and Merz on their victory in the German Bundestag election.On February 24, the leaders of the 27 EU countries will hold an emergency summit on March 6 to discuss the Ukraine issue and the next steps regarding European security. European Council President Costa announced on Sunday that he would hold the summit in Brussels. Costa posted on social media: "We are at a decisive moment for Ukraine and European security." European Commission President von der Leyen and other members of the EU executive will visit Kiev on Monday to express support for Ukraine on the third anniversary of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

As Fed Chair Powell endorses higher rate hikes, EUR / USD falls toward 1.0530

Daniel Rogers

Mar 08, 2023 14:00

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During the Asian session, the EUR / USD pair broke below the consolidation around 1.0550 to the downside. It appears that the major currency pair has resumed its decline, and further losses are anticipated due to pessimistic market sentiment. The currency pair is expected to find support near 1.0530.

 

Futures on the S&P 500 have lost their dead cat bounce as the motif of risk aversion gains strength. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has already reached a three-month high above 105.60, and gains are anticipated due to a general improvement in the appeal of safe-haven assets. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has surpassed 3.97 percent. Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, believes that increasing interest rates is "appropriate and suitable" for controlling the nation's rising inflation. He has asserted that the current monetary policy is inadequately restrictive to bring inflation down to the desired levels.

 

The extraordinary increase in payrolls reported in January has prompted contemplation of a higher termination rate than previously anticipated. Prior to this, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that February's economic data was a one-time anomaly and that price pressures would resume their downward trend beginning the following month. Consequently, investors will gain greater insight following the release of the US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change (Feb) data, which is anticipated to be higher at 200K compared to the previous release of 106K.

 

On the Eurozone front, investors are concentrating on German January Retail Sales data. Compared to the previously reported contraction of 5.3%, it is anticipated that the monthly data will indicate an expansion of 2.0%. As a consequence, inflationary pressures may intensify as a rebound in retail demand may boost the German Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

Klaas Knot, a policymaker at the European Central Bank (ECB), stated on Tuesday that the ECB is likely to continue raising interest rates for "quite some time" following March. According to him, the current rate of interest rate hikes could continue through May if underlying inflation does not decrease significantly.