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April 19th - The US-Iran conflict caused a temporary setback in gold prices, but looking at the long term, golds luster remains undiminished. At the "2026 Market Outlook Forum" recently hosted by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), economist Hong Hao stated that the recent decline in gold prices was not due to deteriorating fundamentals, but rather because it has "completed its historical mission for a certain period." Hong Hao analyzed that the lower the credit rating and the higher the yield of US Treasury bonds, the higher the gold price will be one year later. Holding 10-year US Treasury bonds for one year could result in a loss of nearly 10%, which is a very unfavorable trade; in contrast, fundamental logic, narrative logic, and data models all point to a higher gold price, with a doubling in the future being a certainty. Despite the significant short-term correction in gold prices, he remains optimistic about its long-term prospects.Bangladeshs Ministry of Energy announced Saturday evening that it has raised retail fuel prices by 10% to 15% due to soaring global crude oil prices and supply shortages caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The official notice indicates that under the new prices, gasoline will increase from 116 taka per liter to 135 taka (approximately US$1.10), diesel will remain at 115 taka per liter, and kerosene will cost 130 taka per liter. Bangladesh heavily relies on imported fuel, and the rising fuel costs are putting pressure on the South Asian nations already strained foreign exchange reserves.April 19th - According to analysis firm Kpler, since the outbreak of the war with Iran in late February, the global market has lost more than 500 million barrels of crude oil and condensate, making it the largest energy supply disruption in modern history. During the conflict, the average price of crude oil was around $100 per barrel. Analysts and Reuters calculations indicate that the lost production is worth over $50 billion, and this loss could last for months or even years.Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: We exchanged information with the United States, but the United States insisted on making excessive demands.Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: As part of the negotiations, new instructions will be issued regarding the Strait of Hormuz issue.

As BoJ Udea Mentions the Appropriateness of Current Monetary Policy, EUR/JPY Exhibits a V-Shaped Movement

Daniel Rogers

Feb 24, 2023 14:30

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When Kazuo Ueda, the nominee for Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), addresses the Japanese parliament, the EUR/JPY currency pair exhibits a V-shaped movement. The commentary of Haruhiko Kuroda's successor as Governor of the Bank of Japan has increased the volatility of the Japanese Yen.

 

As he describes the current monetary policy as appropriate and necessary to sustain 2% inflation, BoJ Ueda's speech appears more diplomatic. Moreover, he stated that rising import prices are the cause of Japan's rising inflation. Domestic demand is still insufficient, but the central bank is attempting to achieve pre-pandemic growth rates. The neighborhood has descended into lunacy as a result of his speech's absence of Yield conversion control (YCC) discussions.

 

Despite current discussions about the expansion of the YCC, the economic outlook for the Japanese Yen is positive, as the Bank of Japan is working to increase labor costs, which will confidently support a revival in overall demand.

 

Nordea economists continue to be optimistic about the Japanese Yen: "We remain fairly sanguine on JPY due to our expectations of a change in Bank of Japan monetary policy later this year." According to a note from Nordea, the time is ripe for a normalization of the Bank of Japan's stimulative monetary policy, "with inflation reaching its highest level in decades and a prognosis for higher wage growth."

 

Despite the easing of inflationary pressures, investors are concerned that the normalization of the Eurozone economy will take a significant amount of time. In order to maintain a ceiling on the price index, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to continue raising interest rates.