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On April 30th, a research report from CICC stated that the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, in line with market expectations. However, four officials voted against the inclusion of dovish language, three of whom opposed it, indicating a more cautious monetary policy stance. The high oil prices triggered by the US-Iran conflict, combined with the effects of previous tariffs, have complicated the inflationary environment. Supply shocks have shifted from occasional events to the new normal, meaning that the scope for policy easing is compressed, and the threshold for interest rate cuts will rise. This meeting was also Powells last at the helm of the Fed. Although his successor, Warsh, signaled a move towards "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts," the committees collective decision-making mechanism makes it difficult to push for rate cuts in the short term. We believe the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this year is low, but the path to rate cuts will be longer, with the next rate cut potentially postponed until the fourth quarter.Samsung Electronics: Investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure is expected to expand in the second quarter.Japans retail sales in March totaled 14.306 trillion yen, compared with 12.155 trillion yen in the previous month.April 30th - According to a document from the U.S. Court of International Trade, the first batch of refunds for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on imported goods will be issued around May 11th. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20th that the IEPA did not authorize the president to impose large-scale tariffs. On March 4th, a judge from the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) could not impose tariffs under the IEPA during tariff settlements. This means that tariffs previously imposed under the IEPA must be refunded.Japans inventory levels fell 1.5% month-on-month in March, compared with 0.3% in the previous month.

As BoJ Udea Mentions the Appropriateness of Current Monetary Policy, EUR/JPY Exhibits a V-Shaped Movement

Daniel Rogers

Feb 24, 2023 14:30

 EUR:JPY.png

 

When Kazuo Ueda, the nominee for Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), addresses the Japanese parliament, the EUR/JPY currency pair exhibits a V-shaped movement. The commentary of Haruhiko Kuroda's successor as Governor of the Bank of Japan has increased the volatility of the Japanese Yen.

 

As he describes the current monetary policy as appropriate and necessary to sustain 2% inflation, BoJ Ueda's speech appears more diplomatic. Moreover, he stated that rising import prices are the cause of Japan's rising inflation. Domestic demand is still insufficient, but the central bank is attempting to achieve pre-pandemic growth rates. The neighborhood has descended into lunacy as a result of his speech's absence of Yield conversion control (YCC) discussions.

 

Despite current discussions about the expansion of the YCC, the economic outlook for the Japanese Yen is positive, as the Bank of Japan is working to increase labor costs, which will confidently support a revival in overall demand.

 

Nordea economists continue to be optimistic about the Japanese Yen: "We remain fairly sanguine on JPY due to our expectations of a change in Bank of Japan monetary policy later this year." According to a note from Nordea, the time is ripe for a normalization of the Bank of Japan's stimulative monetary policy, "with inflation reaching its highest level in decades and a prognosis for higher wage growth."

 

Despite the easing of inflationary pressures, investors are concerned that the normalization of the Eurozone economy will take a significant amount of time. In order to maintain a ceiling on the price index, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to continue raising interest rates.