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On April 26, UBS said that the current market thinking is consistent with the banks basic forecast, that is, tariffs will be reduced from the current announced level for the rest of the year, and the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates this year. However, as uncertainty in trade, economy and Federal Reserve policy remains high, expected volatility also remains high. However, UBS believes that the US stock market is attractive, and the S&P 500 index target continues to be 5,800 points by the end of the year. UBSs current basic forecast is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points this year, but in the short term, the Feds policy flexibility seems more limited because it must balance concerns about economic growth with the risk of inflation recovery.According to AFP: Senior officials said that Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump may meet in Rome.Spokesman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Rome to attend the Popes funeral.According to the Ukrainian National News Agency: Russian troops launched 414 attacks in the Zaporizhia region at night.Market news: Ukrainian President Zelensky and his wife arrived in Rome.

AUD/USD continues to swing near 0.6860 despite positive Australian employment data

Alina Haynes

Dec 15, 2022 11:35

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The AUD/USD currency pair continues to be affected by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision (Fed). The Australian dollar has continued to bounce at 0.6860 despite the Australian Bureau of Statistics' announcement of a significant improvement in Employment Change data. The Australian economy has created 64K new jobs, as opposed to the 19K expected and the 32.2K seen earlier. The unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 3.4%.

 

Previously, 12-month inflation forecasts for Australian consumers declined to 5.2% from 5.7% and 6.0% in the prior edition. Reserve Bank of Australia will be delighted by a considerable decline in inflationary pressures (RBA). Philip Lowe, the RBA's governor, has been tightening monetary policy to reduce the CPI (CPI).

 

Notably, a drop in one-year inflation expectations will not compel the RBA to abandon further interest rate hikes, given that the route to achieving a 2% inflation rate is not yet complete. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could boost the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps).

 

A change in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) current monetary policy plan caused volatility in the US Dollar. After the Fed announced a lesser rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) and abandoned the 75 basis point rate hike cycle, the US Dollar Index (DXY) plummeted to a six-month low of 103.49. As the fight against inflation will take some time, the Federal Reserve has raised the peak interest rate to 5.1% by the end of CY2023.


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