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On February 9th, GivTrade strategist Hassan Fawaz noted in a report that given recent signs of a cooling US job market, any significant deviation from expectations in the January non-farm payroll data could trigger sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange and bond markets. He stated, "If the data is weaker than expected, it could reignite market concerns about labor market momentum, strengthen expectations of monetary policy easing later this year, and thus put downward pressure on the dollar." He also pointed out that strong data could challenge these expectations, supporting the dollar and pushing up yields.On February 9th, Ray Farris, Chief Economist at Eastspring Investments, noted in a report that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis election victory is seen as positive for the Japanese stock market. He anticipates Takaichi will adopt a more expansionary fiscal stance, including abolishing the consumption tax and increasing defense spending. Farris added that any new fiscal stimulus measures could boost the economy and extend the growth cycle. He expects corporate earnings forecasts for 2027 to be revised upwards, and the proposed consumption tax cut could take effect in April 2027. However, additional stimulus measures will push up Japanese government bond yields, with the 10-year yield expected to rise above 2.4% in the coming quarters. This will support underlying inflation and could potentially slow or reverse the recent decline in public debt.Citigroup raised its price target for Phillips 66 (PSX.N) from $146 to $159.Citigroup raised its price target for Valero Energy (VLO.N) from $190 to $212.February 9th - Pansen Macroeconomics analyst Anchita Amayuri noted in a report that Eurozone investors believe the economic recovery has finally begun. The Sentix investor confidence index surged to 4.2 in February from -1.8 in January, far exceeding market expectations and reaching its highest level since July 2025. This growth was driven by a simultaneous rise in both the current conditions index and the expectations index. Amayuri stated that investors "extreme confidence" in the German economy also boosted overall sentiment. "We continue to expect German GDP growth to accelerate further this quarter as expansionary fiscal policies aimed at increasing defense and infrastructure spending begin to take effect," she said.

XAG/USD approaches $24.00 as USD Index declines ahead of US PCE Price Index | Silver Price Analysis

Daniel Rogers

Mar 31, 2023 11:47

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During the early Asian session, the silver price (XAG / USD) is advancing rapidly towards the $24.00 round-level resistance. The precious metal has recorded a three-day winning stretch and is anticipated to maintain its upward trajectory due to the US Dollar Index's weakness. (DXY).

 

Despite decreasing concerns about a possible U.S. banking crisis, the price of silver is on an upward trend. Previously, investors supported bullion as a secure refuge to avoid volatility caused by the failure of three mid-tier US banks.

 

Despite the likelihood of additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the USD index struggles to gain ground. (Fed). As US banking fears subside, one school of thought holds that Fed chair Jerome Powell may decide to raise interest rates further. In addition, Fed Chairman Powell anticipates one more rate hike in 2023. And that a rate raise at the Fed's May meeting would allow it to maintain higher rates for an extended period of time.

 

In the meantime, S&P500 futures have added to their gains in the Asian session following a positive close on Thursday, indicating an increase in market participants' risk tolerance.

 

The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, will remain in the spotlight moving forward. Analysts at Credit Suisse anticipate that the monthly reading will be rounded down to 0.3%, leaving year-over-year core inflation at 4.7%. Monthly headline inflation should be comparable to core inflation, but the year-over-year measure should fall to 5.1% due to the ease base effect.