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With the US NFP approaching, bears of the US Dollar Index halt below the monthly low of 105.80

Alina Haynes

Aug 01, 2022 11:56

 截屏2022-08-01 上午9.52.16.png

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which had been falling for three days, came to an end during the Asian session on Monday, maintaining lower ground at 105.80. The dollar index recovers recent losses in the process, despite the market's mildly pessimistic attitude and cautious outlook ahead of July's critical US employment data and ISM PMIs.

 

Demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar was boosted by recent worries in China, hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and better readings on the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

 

Despite the fact that Taiwan is not listed on Nancy Pelosi's agenda, she has already begun her journey to Asia. Threats from Beijing might be the root of the problem. Six people with knowledge of the Chinese warnings told the Financial Times that they were significantly more severe than previous threats Beijing has made when it is displeased with American behavior or policy toward Taiwan (FT).

 

The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, rose to 4.8 percent YoY in June from 4.7 percent in May. Niel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, responded by stating to the New York Times (NYT) that the Fed is still far from putting an end to rate increases. "A half-point rate rise at the forthcoming Fed meetings sounds feasible to me," the official stated.

 

It should be mentioned that the DXY suffered during the last week as a result of Jerome Powell, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), stressing data dependence and neutral rates in his speeches.

 

Wall Street benchmarks echoed the mood by praising the Fed's declining hawkishness, but US Treasury rates remained under pressure as investors flocked to safe haven assets owing to concerns about the impending recession. However, as of the time of publication, the S&P 500 Futures are indicating marginal losses at about 4,120, which indicates the unfavorable sentiment that has lately benefited the US dollar.

 

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July, which is predicted to be 52 vs 53 before, might have an immediate impact on DXY fluctuations prior to the US ISM Services PMI for July. News articles and Fedspeak on China will be quite important. However, with demands for neutral rates and an economic downturn, Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will garner substantial attention. 

Technical Assessment 

The US Dollar Index bears are directed toward an ascending support line from early February, which is now resistance at 104.75 at the time of writing, by a clear negative break of a two-month-old ascending trend line, which is now resistance at 106.85.


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