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On October 18, AFP reported that a source in the Ukrainian delegation revealed to the media that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a map of potential targets in Russia to US President Donald Trump during their meeting in Washington, D.C., on Friday (October 17). The report quoted the source as saying, "The map shows pressure points in Russias defense and military economy that could be targeted to force Russia to end the war." As of press time, neither the White House nor Russia has responded to this report.1. All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.52%, the S&P 500 up 0.53%, and the Nasdaq up 0.52%. American Express rose over 7%, and Apple rose nearly 2%, leading the Dow higher. The Wind US Tech Seven Index rose 0.86%, with Tesla up over 2% and Nvidia up 0.79%. Most Chinese concept stocks rose, with Futu Holdings up over 4% and Pony.ai down over 5%. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.56%, the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.14%. 2. All three major European stock indices closed lower, with the German DAX down 1.61%, the French CAC 40 down 0.18%, and the UKs FTSE 100 down 0.86%. For the week, the German DAX fell 1.49%, the French CAC 40 rose 3.24%, and the UKs FTSE 100 fell 0.77%. 3. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year up 4.77 basis points, the 3-year up 4.96 basis points, the 5-year up 5.19 basis points, the 10-year up 4 basis points, and the 30-year up 2.66 basis points. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $4,267.90 per ounce, a weekly gain of 6.69%; COMEX silver futures fell 5.01% to $50.63 per ounce, a weekly gain of 7.15%. 5. The main U.S. crude oil contract closed up 0.46% at $57.25 per barrel, a weekly loss of 2.80%; the main Brent crude oil contract rose 0.46% to $61.34 per barrel, a weekly loss of 2.22%. 6. Most of the base metals in London fell, with LME tin futures down 2.07% to $35,030/ton, down 3.16% for the week; LME nickel futures fell 1.03% to $15,110/ton, down 1.11% for the week; LME zinc futures fell 1.03% to $2,942.50/ton, down 1.97% for the week; LME copper futures fell 0.38% to $10,607/ton, up 0.85% for the week; LME aluminum futures fell 0.36% to $2,778.50/ton, up 1.11% for the week; LME lead futures rose 0.31% to $1,971.50/ton, down 2.43% for the week.1. Hamas and Egypt discussed post-war security in the Gaza Strip. 2. Israels Defense Minister stated that those crossing the "yellow line" in Gaza would be met with retaliatory fire. 3. The UN Deputy Secretary-General entered Gaza and called for the opening of all crossings. 4. Guterres refuted Houthi accusations, posing a serious threat to the safety of UN personnel. 5. Market News: Pakistan "conducted precision airstrikes" in the Afghan border area. 6. Irans Foreign Minister stated that UN Security Council Resolution 2231 expires on the 18th, ending previous restrictions on Iran. 7. Sources: Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to extend the 48-hour ceasefire until delegation-level talks can be held in Doha. 8. The Israeli Prime Ministers Office stated (in response to remarks by a senior Hamas official) that Hamas must disarm, "no ifs, no buts." 9. A senior Hamas official stated that it is impossible to definitively answer whether Hamas will give up its weapons. Hamas hopes for a three- to five-year ceasefire to rebuild Gaza, but stressed that it is not intended to pave the way for a new war.On October 18, local time, on October 17, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a new 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks and parts starting November 1. Trump said that a 10% tariff would also be imposed on imported passenger cars.According to Axios on October 18th, Nvidia (NVDA.O) and TSMC (TSM.N) will announce on Friday the completion of their first wafer in the United States, which will be made into Blackwell chips for artificial intelligence. This milestone represents one of the first achievements of the Trump administrations push to build AI technology in the United States and marks a key step in the USs competition to control the future of artificial intelligence. Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang announced the development on Friday during a visit to TSMCs semiconductor manufacturing facility in Phoenix. Nvidia stated, "Nvidia and TSMC are working together to build the infrastructure that will support global AI factories in the United States." In a joint statement, Nvidia and TSMC stated, "TSMCs Arizona factory is expected to create thousands of high-tech jobs and attract a broad ecosystem of suppliers." However, while this wafer is an important first step in reshoring critical chip production to the United States, there is still a long way to go before the US can completely break free from its reliance on overseas companies and factories for chip demand.

What make oil prices down? Should I buy at the bottom right now?

Eden

Oct 25, 2021 14:08

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National Broadcasting Corporation Financial Channel (CNBC) well-known Jim Cramer (Jim Cramer) Cramer predicts that without this agreement, oil prices could rise to $100. "The drop in crude oil prices is actually good news for the overall market...it means that costs for everyone will be reduced," Kramer said.


Influencing factors: COVID cases up

Data show that last Saturday, the number of newly diagnosed cases in the UK in a single day exceeded 50,000, a new high since January. The CDC also severely warned people not to travel to the UK on Monday, and raised the UK's warning level to the highest level: level four-very high.


On the eve of the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics on July 23, the number of cases in the Olympic Village in Japan has continued to increase, and Tokyo has newly confirmed more than 1,000 new crown cases for several days.


Some countries and regions have begun to re-introduce blockade measures. Thailand announced the expansion of areas for epidemic control, and Hanoi, Vietnam implemented a stay-at-home order.


At the same time, although the United Kingdom completely lifted its anti-epidemic restrictions on Monday, the surge in the number of new cases has raised concerns that the United Kingdom may restart the blockade. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday that there is no guarantee that the unblocking plan will not be reversed.


Influencing factors: supply up

OPEC+ resolved the deadlock in increasing production last week and eliminated some uncertainties in the market. The organization will gradually increase production by 400,000 barrels per month from August. However, some analysts believe that the increase in OPEC+ production is not enough to fill the market gap. Ed Morse, Head of Commodity Research at Citigroup, said, “Adding 400,000 barrels of crude oil to the market every day will prove to be insignificant. In short, the market is very tight.”


The rebound is not over

Oanda analyst Edward Moya predicts, "The commodity rebound is not over yet, but there may be a major breakthrough here. WTI crude oil fundamentals still support a sharp rise again, and it will only take another month or so to get rid of the ever-increasing hedging. mood."


The market's response to OPEC+'s increase in production may be too pessimistic, because if OPEC+ does not reach an agreement, the alternative results will only be worse. For example, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are opposed to each other over production quotas. OPEC cannot unite, leading to the breakdown of the production quota agreement and more supply flowing into the market.


Research firm Sankey Research analyst Paul Sankey wrote, “The agreement will eliminate tail risks in the market, especially oil stocks, because if UAE splits from OPEC/Saudi Arabia, it will launch a battle for market share.”


According to the current agreement, supply will remain relatively limited, and OPEC will maintain control. Saudi Arabia has stated that it hopes that prices will remain high, and will act as soon as possible to ensure that this goal is achieved, as long as OPEC can unite.


For oil producers, the current situation is still profitable. Excluding Monday, North American oil and gas producers' stocks have fallen 12% this month. Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott pointed out that although it is still up 50% so far this year, it is still 25% behind the price of commodities themselves since the beginning of 2020.


He believes that "there is room for further catching up because the valuation is still 65% lower than the broader market, and the historical average is 30%." For 10 years, manufacturers' drilling activities have been unprofitable, and corporate strategies can only ignore profits. However, everything has changed this year. In the first quarter, the group generated the highest free cash flow in more than 10 years.


Bank of America analyst Chase Mulvehill wrote that OPEC+'s decision to continue to reduce production in the next few months shows that Saudi Arabia is willing to give up some markets to US producers in exchange for higher prices.


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