EUR/USD
1.17802
-0.297%
Gold
5356.98
1.779%
Oil
71.837
6.940%
USD/JPY
156.333
0.104%
GBP/USD
1.34295
-0.352%
GBP/JPY
209.952
-0.248%
Real-time News
Goldman Sachs estimates that if the supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasts for six weeks, there is a time risk premium of $18 per barrel for crude oil prices; if only 50% of the supply is disrupted for one month, the premium will decrease to $4.According to a U.S. official, the United States and Israel have launched attacks on more than 2,000 targets inside Iran to date.1. Monday: ① Data: UK February Nationwide House Price Index (MoM); Switzerland January Retail Sales (YoY); France, Germany, Eurozone, and UK February Manufacturing PMI (Final); UK January Bank of England Mortgage Approvals; US February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final); US February ISM Manufacturing PMI. ② Holiday: Seoul Stock Exchange closed. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: Japan January Unemployment Rate; Eurozone February CPI (YoY, Preliminary); Eurozone February CPI (MoM, Preliminary). ② Events: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a fintech seminar; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks. ③ Holiday: National Stock Exchange of India closed. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending February 27; Australias Q4 GDP annual rate; Chinas official manufacturing PMI, RatingDog manufacturing PMI, and RatingDog services PMI for February; Switzerlands CPI month-on-month rate for February; final readings of services PMI for February in France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK; Eurozones PPI month-on-month rate and unemployment rate for January; US ADP employment change for February; final reading of the S&P Global Services PMI for February; and US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for February. ② Events: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) convenes in Beijing; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member, delivers a speech; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem participates in a fireside chat. 4. Thursday: ① Data: French January industrial production month-on-month; Swiss February seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; Eurozone January retail sales month-on-month; US February Challenger job cuts; US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28; US January import price index month-on-month; US February global supply chain stress index; US EIA natural gas storage for the week ending February 27. ② Events: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Peoples Congress convenes in Beijing; Saudi Aramco announces its official crude oil prices around the 5th of each month; the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book on economic conditions. ③ Earnings reports: JD.com, Bilibili. 5. Friday: ① Data: UK February Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-on-month; Eurozone Q4 GDP annual rate revised; Eurozone Q4 seasonally adjusted employment quarter-on-quarter final; US February unemployment rate; US February seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls; US January retail sales month-on-month; US February average hourly earnings year-on-year; US February average hourly earnings month-on-month; US December business inventories month-on-month. 6. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of US oil rigs for the week ending March 6; Chinas foreign exchange reserves in February. ② Event: Speech by Cleveland Fed President Hamak, a 2026 FOMC voting member, on the safe-haven status of the US dollar.Casualties: 1. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in an attack. 2. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was killed in an attack. 3. Iranian Presidential Palace: Pezechzig is safe. 4. Trump: 48 members of the Iranian leadership were killed. 5. Trump revealed that three American soldiers were killed in the fighting against Iran. 6. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: Seven Iranian military commanders were killed in the attack on Iran. 7. Iran claims the attack resulted in 560 US military casualties. US Statements: 1. Trump: Military action against Iran could last four weeks. 2. The US military claims to have destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 3. The US claims the military action against Iran did not involve nuclear facilities. 4. Trump: Nine Iranian warships have been destroyed and sunk; the US has essentially destroyed the Iranian naval headquarters. 5. Trump: If Iran launches a fierce attack, the US will retaliate with unprecedented force. 6. Trump: Still willing to engage in more dialogue with Iran, prepared to deliver a speech on the attack. 7. US military denies Iranian missile attack on USS Abraham Lincoln. 8. US used Anthropic AI tool during airstrikes against Iran. 9. US Central Command: More than 1,000 Iranian targets have been struck in ongoing operations. 10. US Central Command: Last night, a US B-2 stealth bomber carrying 2,000 pounds of bombs attacked a hardened Iranian ballistic missile facility. No country should doubt Americas resolve. Iranian statements: 1. Iran reportedly used Fateh-2 missiles for the first time to attack a US military base. 2. Iranian military claims to have launched its ninth round of "True Commitment 4" strikes against US and Israeli targets. 3. Iran claims that if energy facilities are attacked, all oil and gas facilities in the region will be destroyed. 4. Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier was attacked by four Iranian ballistic missiles. 5. Iranian Foreign Minister responds to US Presidents "no retaliation" remarks: Iran has the right to defend itself. 6. Secretary of Irans Supreme National Security Council: Iran has no intention of violating the sovereignty of its neighbors. 7. Ahmed Vahidi will serve as Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 8. Iran announces Alireza Allafi as the jurist elected by the Guardian Council; the council composed of elected jurists will temporarily assume the duties of the Supreme Leader. Israels statements: 1. Israel Defense Forces: Following the elimination of the Supreme Leader of the Iranian terrorist regime, we announce the elimination of all senior leaders of the Iranian terrorist axis. 2. Israeli Prime Minister: The intensity of strikes against Iran will be further increased in the coming days. 3. Israeli military: Most of Irans air defense systems in western and central Iran have been destroyed. 4. Israeli military claims first strikes against targets in the heart of the Iranian capital. European statements: 1. The UK states that Irans launch of two missiles towards Cyprus marks Irans first missile attack on Europe. 2. British Prime Minister Starmer: Has accepted the US request to use British military bases for defensive strikes against Iranian missile depots or launch sites. 3. Joint statement from the leaders of France, Britain, and Germany: Measures (against Iran) may include necessary and moderate defensive actions to destroy Irans ability to launch missiles and drones, preventing it from launching attacks at their source. 4. According to French BFM TV: The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its carrier battle group will end their deployment in the Baltic Sea ahead of schedule and redeploy to the Eastern Mediterranean. 5. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Karas: The EU Navys Operation Aspides will deploy more ships to strengthen maritime security in the Red Sea, the Gulf, and the Indian Ocean. Spillover effects: 1. Major Middle Eastern stock indices fell 4%-5% intraday on Sunday. 2. Iranian stock market trading suspended until this week. 3. The UAEs two major financial markets will suspend trading on Monday and Tuesday. 4. Maersk will reroute its Middle East routes around Africa. 5. A large number of oil tankers are backed up outside the Strait of Hormuz. 6. Japanese shipping companies have suspended operations in the Persian Gulf. 7. According to Fox News, Putin said he was not worried about anything when discussing the Strait of Hormuz and oil. 8. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs closed its embassy in Tehran and withdrew its ambassador to Iran.According to the UAEs national news agency, the UAE president and US president Trump discussed the Iranian strikes.
