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On July 14th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the import and export situation of goods trade in the first half of 2026. Wang Jun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, discussed the reasons for the rapid growth in imports in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, my countrys imports reached 10.74 trillion yuan, exceeding 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period in history, representing a growth of 22.1%, 8.7 percentage points higher than the export growth rate. Chinas contribution to foreign trade growth was also greater than that of exports, promoting balanced trade development. As the worlds largest manufacturing country and the worlds second largest consumer market, my country has a vast market with enormous potential. my country has been the worlds second largest import market for 17 consecutive years, with an average annual growth of 5.1%, and its share of global imports has increased from 7.9% to about 10%. Proactively expanding imports is a necessary condition. my country has orderly expanded its independent and unilateral opening-up, implemented zero-tariff policies for 63 countries, and successfully held international exhibitions such as the China International Import Expo, the China International Consumer Goods Expo, and the China Chain Store & Franchise Expo, providing a "window" for global goods to enter the Chinese market. In the first half of the year, my countrys imports from more than 150 countries and regions achieved growth.July 14th - From July 9th to 10th, the 2026 Summer National Coal Trade Fair, hosted by the China Coal Industry Association and the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, was held in Urumqi, Xinjiang. The theme was "Strengthening the Role of Coal as a Safety Net and Improving the Level of Coal Safety Guarantee." Liu Hongbo, Director of the Coal Division of the Economic Operation Regulation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the quality of long-term contract signing and performance has continued to improve, the overall supply of thermal coal has been effectively guaranteed, and the basic supply base has been continuously strengthened. Coal remains my countrys greatest source of confidence in coping with the complex energy situation. "In the first half of the year, coal enterprises released production capacity in accordance with laws and regulations, strictly fulfilled long-term contract performance, and national coal production was at a historically high level for the same period," said Shi Ying, Vice Chairman of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association. Industry insiders revealed that in the first half of this year, the average daily output of raw coal remained stable at over 12 million tons, and the coal reserves of power plants under national unified dispatch exceeded 200 million tons, with an average usable period of over 30 days. Chen Pei, Deputy Director of the Logistics Center of China State Railway Group, introduced that in the first half of the year, the national railway coal transport volume reached 1.05 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, of which 700 million tons were thermal coal.On July 14th, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Lu Daliang, spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis, stated that amidst the global heatwave, exports of cooling appliances such as air conditioners, fans, and refrigerators totaled 107.91 billion yuan in the first half of the year. "In recent years, the public has paid more attention to the new three items, namely electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products. However, we also have the old three items, namely mobile phones, computers, and home appliances, which continue to play an important role in stabilizing foreign trade," Lu Daliang emphasized. Lu Daliang pointed out that intelligent technology is continuously empowering and driving the iterative innovation of my countrys home appliance industry. Not only is the quality of my countrys exported home appliances improving, but the brands are also upgrading; domestic brands now account for one-quarter of exported home appliances.On July 14th, Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decline by 0.2% month-over-month in June, marking the first decline since the pandemic began, driven entirely by a 15% drop in gasoline prices from mid-May to the end of June. The annualized inflation rate is expected to slow to 3.8% from 4.2% in May. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month, with the annualized core inflation rate expected to only slightly decrease to 2.8% from 2.9% in May. Service inflation (covering rent, auto repairs, leisure and entertainment, and dining out) is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 3.4%, higher than Januarys 2.9% and significantly higher than the 2.6% average between 2010 and 2019. This means that even with improved nominal overall inflation data, the Federal Reserve has little basis for easing policy. This situation presents a dilemma for Warsh, who is making his first congressional testimony this week: he must demonstrate a determination to curb inflation without appearing too hawkish and thus tightening credit conditions excessively, while the fragile Middle East ceasefire poses a two-way risk to the energy price outlook. This balance largely depends on how the situation in the Middle East and its impact on oil prices evolve.July 14 – The State Council Information Office held a press conference today to introduce the performance of my countrys foreign trade this year. At the press conference, a spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs stated that, according to statistics from China Customs, the total value of Sino-US trade in goods reached 2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 7.9% of my countrys total foreign trade. Trade decreased by 18.7% in the first quarter and increased by 13.7% in the second quarter.

Watching the foreign exchange market on October 11: technical analysis of the euro, the British pound and the Australian dollar

Oct 26, 2021 11:04

Currency: EUR/USD



Resistance 2: 1.1640

Resistance 1: 1.1580

Spot price: 1.1577

Support 1: 1.1500

Support 2: 1.144

The economic data last week was frequent, and the US non-agricultural employment data released last Friday became the peak. The US non-agricultural market is quite disappointed because the US only increased by 194,000 in September, which is far below the expected value of 500,000. The unemployment rate shrank to 4.8%, but the reason was that the employment participation rate shrank to 61.6%. Following this news, the U.S. dollar faced selling pressure, but the euro did not strengthen due to the overall weakness of the U.S. dollar. Because the German economic data disappointed the market even more, most of the German data fell short of market expectations. The monthly rate of factory orders in Germany recorded -7.7% in August, while industrial production fell 4% in August. In addition, Germany's trade account recorded a surplus of 13 billion euros, and exports fell by 1.2%. For this reason, the euro/dollar fell to a new low of 1.1528 in 2021. The weekly chart shows that the euro/dollar has fallen for five consecutive weeks. The EUR/USD is struggling near the 200 SMA and trading below the 100 SMA. At the same time, the 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish tendency and is far above the current price. At the same time, the technical indicators are still in the negative zone, finishing the decline, near the September low. The daily chart shows that the euro/dollar still maintains a bearish tendency. The EUR/USD is far below the bearish moving average, technical indicators are still in the negative zone, and the direction is unknown, indicating a lack of buying interest. If the EUR/USD drops below 1.1528, the year's low, it will test the 1.1460/70 area, which is a long-term resistance and a potential bearish target. If the EUR/USD drops below this level, it will test the 1.1390 area. If the EUR/USD breaks through 1.1640, it may rebound further, but when it approaches the 1.1700 mark, it may again incur selling interest.

Currency: GBP/USD



Resistance 2: 1.3773

Resistance 1: 1.3717

Spot price: 1.3641

Support 1: 1.3574

Support 2: 1.3525

On October 8th, affected by the mixed employment data in the United States, the pound against the dollar once hit a high for more than a week, but now it has almost given up all the gains. The bad non-agricultural data seems to have failed to cool the Fed's expectations of reducing debt purchases. The number of new jobs created in the United States in September was lower than expected for the second consecutive month, indicating a weak recovery in the labor market, complicating the Fed's decision to start reducing monetary support before the end of the year. Nevertheless, as companies raise wages, the reopening of schools and the end of federal unemployment benefits should lead to an increase in hiring in the coming months. Therefore, this month's non-agricultural data has hardly weakened expectations that the Fed will soon begin to reduce bond purchases and may raise interest rates in 2022. This was further reinforced by the subsequent counter-attack of the British pound shorts. In fact, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield continues to stabilize at around 1.59%, which is close to a 4-month high. This, in turn, continued to boost the U.S. dollar and restrained any surge in the pound against the U.S. dollar. On the upside, the resistance levels focus on 1.3655, 1.3717, and 1.3743, and on the downside, the support levels focus on 1.3574, 1.3544, and 1.3500.

Currency: AUD/USD



Resistance level 2: 0.7400

Resistance 1: 0.7330

Spot price: 0.7316

Support 1: 0.7266

Support 2: 0.7200

The AUD/USD opened weak last week and fell to a low of 0.7225, but as market sentiment recovered, the AUD/USD closed above the 0.7300 mark. The Australian data released in recent days are quite encouraging and provide further support for the Australian dollar. The monthly rate of inflation of TD Securities rose by 0.3% in September, while the AIG Construction Industry Performance Index rose to 53.3 in September. The Commonwealth Banking Services Purchasing Managers Index in September recorded 45.5, better than the previous value of 44.9, but still in a contraction range. The AIG Service Industry Performance Index rose to 45.7. AUD/USD consolidates in the 38.2% Fibonacci and 50% Fibonacci 0.7477 and 0.7169 ranges of the recent daily decline. The next Fibonacci resistance of the AUD/USD is at 0.7360, and the AUD/USD needs to break through this level in order to rebound further. The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD maintains a moderately bullish stance, the AUD/USD is above the flat 20 moving average, while the long-term moving average maintains a bearish tendency and is above the current price. At the same time, the technical indicators are in a positive zone and have lost bullish momentum, but they have not shown a peak signal. If the AUD/USD breaks through 0.7360, it will first approach 0.7410 and then rise to the 0.7480 price area. However, the AUD/USD does not seem to show such a strong rebound. If the AUD/USD breaks below 0.7250, the shorts may regain the dominance and will then approach the annual low of 0.7105.

Only personal views, not representative of the views of the organization

Source: Bank of China's official website, Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang, original title: "Foreign Exchange Market Watch October 11, 2021"