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August 17th - According to the Financial Times, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) CEO Jamie Dimon spoke with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Healy by phone last week, warning him against raising taxes on the banking sector. The UK government is currently considering imposing new taxes on banks ahead of the October budget. Dimon stated that an uncompetitive tax system could weaken Londons status as a financial center, potentially leading to an outflow of capital and financial jobs from the UK.According to Al Jazeera, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament stated that we must reach a level of deterrence to avoid falling into a cycle of war, peace, and then more war.Market news: Stripe is about to acquire artificial intelligence company OpenRouter for more than $7 billion.August 17th - According to Politico, U.S. Attorney General Todd Branch said on Sunday that he is willing to disagree with the president on legal issues. He emphasized that Trump wants cabinet members to disagree with him when necessary. When asked if he could reject the presidents preferred course of action if his legal opinion differed from the presidents, Branch said, "I think he would expect me to tell him no." However, he did not commit to the Justice Department always acting independently of the White House. "No, I would not make that commitment," he said, "and no attorney general should make that commitment."Iranian media outlet Fars News reported that the Deputy Political Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that while their operations have so far been defensive, they may shift to an offensive posture in the future. The armed forces will adopt transformative strategies and take any action necessary to defend the country.

Warmer Weather Forecasts Lowered Natural Gas Prices 7%

Skylar Williams

Jan 11, 2023 10:54

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New forecasts for a mild winter sent natural gas prices back to the mid-$3 area.


The February gas contract on the Henry Hub of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $3.639 per mmBtu on Tuesday, down 27 cents, or 7%.


The drop follows Monday's 11% and 5.4% gas hikes. The benchmark gas contract is down 2% week-to-date and 52% in the past three weeks.


Gelber & Associates, a Houston-based energy markets consultancy, claimed market bears are selling NYMEX front-month natural gas contracts. "Sellers have regained control, driving prices to the low $3.30s/mmBtu as market players predict unseasonably high temperatures in the U.S.


Natural gas contracts fell precipitously in December after rising rapidly for much of 2022 due to weather extremes and a supply bottleneck caused by political and other barriers to Russian gas output after the Ukraine incursion. Unexpectedly mild winter temperatures have left European and American heating markets well-stocked.


According to the Gelber research, extremely mild temperatures through mid-January could lead to further gas price drops.


According to the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European (ECMWF) models, the near-term temperature picture is bleak for mid-January, with daily gas storage withdrawals likely to be below the five-year average for two weeks.


The stoppage of the Freeport liquefaction facility in Texas has also reduced LNG exports by 2 bcf per day.


"For gas market bulls, colder weather in Europe would be beneficial," Gelber said. Similar to the U.S., European temperatures have been unusually warm since December.


Compared to $80-$100 per mmBtu last summer, European gas prices at the TTF point in the Netherlands are $21-$24.


"It's not out of the question that NYMEX gas futures may return to $5 [per mmBtu] or higher in the near future," Gelber wrote, "but it will require enormous amounts of Arctic air to dominate the nation for several weeks." Any weather forecast model regressions toward a lengthier period of warmth would send NYMEX gas futures to new lows.

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