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Philippine central bank: Still dovish, but the intensity has weakened compared with before.Germanys DAX30 index opened up 102.99 points, or 0.43%, to 24,156.50 points on August 28 (Thursday); the UKs FTSE 100 index opened up 10.75 points, or 0.12%, to 9,266.25 points on August 28 (Thursday); Frances CAC40 index opened up 29.49 points, or 0.38%, to 7,773.42 points on August 28 (Thursday); the Euro Stoxx 50 index opened up 18.93 points, or 0.35%, to 5,412.00 points on August 28 (Thursday); Spains IBEX35 index opened up 34.30 points, or 0.23%, to 15,059.50 points on August 28 (Thursday); Italys FTSE MIB index opened up 82.59 points, or 0.20%, to 42,432.00 points on August 28 (Thursday).Switzerlands GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.2% in the second quarter, in line with expectations of 1.4% and the previous reading of 2.00%.Switzerlands GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter was 0.1%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.50%.On August 28th, Panson Macro analysts said in a report that they expect the Bank of England to slow the pace of quantitative tightening to £70 billion over the 12 months starting in October, from the current £100 billion. The Bank of England noted the impact of quantitative tightening on the UK gilt market at its August policy meeting. The economists said: "This suggests that the UK government is increasingly concerned about the surge in yields." They said that due to concerns about the impact of quantitative tightening on the UK gilt market, the Bank of England may reduce the program.

Warmer Weather Forecasts Lowered Natural Gas Prices 7%

Skylar Williams

Jan 11, 2023 10:54

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New forecasts for a mild winter sent natural gas prices back to the mid-$3 area.


The February gas contract on the Henry Hub of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $3.639 per mmBtu on Tuesday, down 27 cents, or 7%.


The drop follows Monday's 11% and 5.4% gas hikes. The benchmark gas contract is down 2% week-to-date and 52% in the past three weeks.


Gelber & Associates, a Houston-based energy markets consultancy, claimed market bears are selling NYMEX front-month natural gas contracts. "Sellers have regained control, driving prices to the low $3.30s/mmBtu as market players predict unseasonably high temperatures in the U.S.


Natural gas contracts fell precipitously in December after rising rapidly for much of 2022 due to weather extremes and a supply bottleneck caused by political and other barriers to Russian gas output after the Ukraine incursion. Unexpectedly mild winter temperatures have left European and American heating markets well-stocked.


According to the Gelber research, extremely mild temperatures through mid-January could lead to further gas price drops.


According to the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European (ECMWF) models, the near-term temperature picture is bleak for mid-January, with daily gas storage withdrawals likely to be below the five-year average for two weeks.


The stoppage of the Freeport liquefaction facility in Texas has also reduced LNG exports by 2 bcf per day.


"For gas market bulls, colder weather in Europe would be beneficial," Gelber said. Similar to the U.S., European temperatures have been unusually warm since December.


Compared to $80-$100 per mmBtu last summer, European gas prices at the TTF point in the Netherlands are $21-$24.


"It's not out of the question that NYMEX gas futures may return to $5 [per mmBtu] or higher in the near future," Gelber wrote, "but it will require enormous amounts of Arctic air to dominate the nation for several weeks." Any weather forecast model regressions toward a lengthier period of warmth would send NYMEX gas futures to new lows.

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