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EIA Natural Gas Report: As of the week ending October 10, total U.S. natural gas inventories were 372.1 billion cubic feet, an increase of 80 billion cubic feet from the previous week and 26 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. At the same time, it was 154 billion cubic feet higher than the five-year average, an increase of 4.3%.The EIA natural gas inventory in the United States for the week ending October 10 was 80 billion cubic feet, which was in line with expectations of 81 billion cubic feet and the previous value of 80 billion cubic feet.New York silver futures hit $53 an ounce, up 3.16% on the day.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+ cooperation will help balance global supply and demand.On October 16, ECB board member Wunsch said that the ECB has done almost perfect in dealing with this "once-in-a-century" inflation shock. Wunsch pointed out that although he had hoped that the ECB would start the tightening cycle earlier after the inflation surge in 2022, overall he was satisfied with the subsequent decision. "I was one of those who thought we should act earlier, but then we did catch up. I would say that we have done almost perfect since then." He reiterated his previous view that there are no obvious upside or downside risks to inflation at present. "If you have to choose between upside or downside risks, I would say that the risk is slightly biased to the downside, which is mainly affected by the appreciation of the euro and the economic trend. But overall, we are in a good position."

Warmer Weather Forecasts Lowered Natural Gas Prices 7%

Skylar Williams

Jan 11, 2023 10:54

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New forecasts for a mild winter sent natural gas prices back to the mid-$3 area.


The February gas contract on the Henry Hub of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $3.639 per mmBtu on Tuesday, down 27 cents, or 7%.


The drop follows Monday's 11% and 5.4% gas hikes. The benchmark gas contract is down 2% week-to-date and 52% in the past three weeks.


Gelber & Associates, a Houston-based energy markets consultancy, claimed market bears are selling NYMEX front-month natural gas contracts. "Sellers have regained control, driving prices to the low $3.30s/mmBtu as market players predict unseasonably high temperatures in the U.S.


Natural gas contracts fell precipitously in December after rising rapidly for much of 2022 due to weather extremes and a supply bottleneck caused by political and other barriers to Russian gas output after the Ukraine incursion. Unexpectedly mild winter temperatures have left European and American heating markets well-stocked.


According to the Gelber research, extremely mild temperatures through mid-January could lead to further gas price drops.


According to the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European (ECMWF) models, the near-term temperature picture is bleak for mid-January, with daily gas storage withdrawals likely to be below the five-year average for two weeks.


The stoppage of the Freeport liquefaction facility in Texas has also reduced LNG exports by 2 bcf per day.


"For gas market bulls, colder weather in Europe would be beneficial," Gelber said. Similar to the U.S., European temperatures have been unusually warm since December.


Compared to $80-$100 per mmBtu last summer, European gas prices at the TTF point in the Netherlands are $21-$24.


"It's not out of the question that NYMEX gas futures may return to $5 [per mmBtu] or higher in the near future," Gelber wrote, "but it will require enormous amounts of Arctic air to dominate the nation for several weeks." Any weather forecast model regressions toward a lengthier period of warmth would send NYMEX gas futures to new lows.

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