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On May 18, US President Trump stated in an interview that he still believes Iran is willing to reach an agreement and expects Iran to submit an updated proposal in the coming days. Trump reportedly declined to reveal a deadline for the negotiations but indicated that the US would take stronger military action if Iran did not meet US demands regarding its nuclear program.① Iran 1. Iranian military: If the US launches another military operation, it will face an offensive response. 2. Iranian Foreign Ministry: The US and Israel are using "maintaining energy stability" as a pretext to justify the war against Iran. 3. Iranian Vice President: Iran will no longer allow enemy military equipment to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Iran: Iran says it is prepared to respond to a potential escalation of the situation by the US. 5. Iran: The US has presented Iran with five key conditions, including that the US will not pay any war reparations and that Iran will only be allowed to maintain one operational nuclear facility. ② US 1. US Energy Secretary: The Strait of Hormuz will reopen no later than this summer. 2. Two US officials revealed that Trump is expected to meet with his national security team in the Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss military options. 3. Sources: Trump met with senior members of his national security team on Saturday to discuss the next steps in the war with Iran. 4. Trump stated on social media on Sunday that if Iran does not act swiftly, it will have nothing. ③ Israel 1. Following the "extension of the ceasefire," Israel launched a large-scale airstrike on southern Lebanon. 2. Sources: Israel has secretly established at least two military outposts in Iraq. 3. Israeli media: Netanyahu and Trump spoke by phone to discuss the possibility of resuming hostilities in Iraq. If military operations against Iraq resume, it is expected that Israel and the United States will launch joint airstrikes. 6. Other situations: 1. The Israeli military claims to have killed a commander at the Hamas operations headquarters. 2. Lebanon claims the Israeli attack caused approximately $2 billion in economic damage. 3. NATO intelligence agencies believe Iran still retains most of its missile stockpile and facilities. 4. A generator outside the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE was attacked by a drone and caught fire. 5. The International Atomic Energy Agency: The UAE stated that radiation levels at the Barakah nuclear power plant are normal and that no casualties were reported after the drone attack. 6. The International Criminal Court denies issuing new arrest warrants for several Israeli officials. On May 18, Kyrgyz President Sadil Japarov called on world leaders to vote for Kyrgyzstan as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council on June 3. Japarov emphasized, "Choosing Kyrgyzstan will reflect the world communitys political will to restore historical justice and ensure that all countries are elected equally to the highest organs of the United Nations."The UAEs nuclear regulator stated that no radioactive leaks occurred following the Barakah nuclear power plant incident, and there is no risk to the public.On May 18, shipping giants CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd announced on Sunday that they had suspended all bookings to and from Cuba until further notice. Both companies cited a May 1 U.S. executive order, the latest blow to Cubas crisis-ridden economy. Two sources said the temporary suspension of new orders by the worlds two largest shipping companies could jeopardize up to 60% of Cubas freight volume. This comes after the U.S. oil blockade severely restricted Cubas fuel supply. The executive order signed by Trump on May 1 expanded existing U.S. sanctions on Cuban trade to include "any foreign person doing business in the energy, defense and related materials, metals and mining, financial services or security sectors of the Cuban economy, or any other sector of the Cuban economy."

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.