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Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowmans speech will be released in ten minutes.French President Emmanuel Macron stated: "We will continue to firmly support Ukraine. Ukraines future cannot be forged without the participation of the Ukrainian people. Europe must also be involved in developing a solution. We will continue to coordinate closely with Zelenskyy and our European partners."SpaceX: The Dragon spacecraft has been confirmed to have splashed down.On August 9th, European powers and Ukraine responded to Russian President Vladimir Putins ceasefire plan on Saturday with a counter-proposal, which they said must serve as a framework for progress in upcoming talks between Trump and Russian leaders, according to two European officials familiar with the negotiations. Europe rejected Russias proposal that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the remaining areas of Donetsk in exchange for a ceasefire. The European proposal included a requirement for a ceasefire before any other steps could be taken. It also stated that territorial exchanges could only be made on a "reciprocal" basis, meaning that if Ukraine withdraws from certain areas, Russia must withdraw from others. "You cant start a (peace) process by ceding territory in the middle of a battle," said a European negotiator. Crucially, the European plan presented to U.S. Vice President Cyril Vance and others also stipulated that any territorial concessions from Kyiv must be backed by absolutely reliable security guarantees—including the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO.The European proposal includes a ceasefire before any other steps can be taken. It also says territorial swaps can only be done on a "reciprocal" basis, meaning that if Ukraine withdraws from some areas, Russia must withdraw from others.

WTI crude oil climbs above $80.00 as NFP and recession fears contend with an OPEC+ surprise

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:36

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As energy markets celebrate the Good Friday holiday, WTI crude oil prices remain stable around $80.50, poised for a three-week uptrend. In doing so, black gold defends the week-beginning gains provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, headed by Russia, known as OPEC+, who announced a surprise output cut. However, concerns of a recession and a cautious disposition ahead of the March US employment report have recently posed a challenge to the energy benchmark.

 

The OPEC+ group startled the market with a voluntary output decline of nearly 1.66 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, in response to the OPEC+ announcements, that the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output risks aggravating a stressed market by driving up oil prices in response to inflationary pressures.

 

On the other hand, the US Dollar's weakness, bolstered by disappointing US data, supported the recovery of the black gold.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a four-day losing streak and is currently trading around 102.000.

 

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 increased to 228K from 200K expected and an upwardly revised 246K the previous week. Notable is that the Challenger Job Cuts for the given month increased from 77,77K to 89,703K. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K also disappointed markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 compared to 54.5 anticipated and 55.1 previously.

 

China's optimism for economic development and optimistic activity data from the dragon nation could also support the oil price. Pan Gongsheng, the director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated on Friday that Beijing "will defend itself against external financial market shocks and risks."

 

It should be noted, however, that recent calls for a recession pose a challenge to WTI crude oil purchasers, and more signs of economic decline should be monitored for direction, particularly when commodity prices trade near the key short-term resistance line.

 

In addition to the news about the recession, the March US employment report will be crucial to monitor for direction. Analysts anticipate a decline in headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K previously, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. However, the contradictory forecasts for Average Hourly Wages make the outcome even more intriguing.


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