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June 4th - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 30th were 225,000, higher than the expected 213,000 and the revised previous weeks 212,000, marking the highest level since the first week of February. The four-week moving average was 214,750, higher than last weeks 208,250. Continuing jobless claims were 1,777,000, slightly lower than the expected 1,780,000. The rise in initial jobless claims indicates a weakening employment situation, but it remains relatively low and stable. Continuing jobless claims declined slightly. It should be noted that continuing jobless claims data has a one-week lag, so next weeks data will correspond to this weeks initial jobless claims data. U.S. stocks traded mixed in pre-market trading, with Dow Jones futures up 1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures down more than 1%. U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.039%, down 4.5 basis points; the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.455%, down 3.8 basis points; and the 30-year Treasury yield at 4.960%, down 3.0 basis points.The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 30 was 225,000, the highest since the week ending February 7, 2026.The number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits for the week ending May 23 was 1.777 million, compared with an expected 1.78 million and a revised 1.785 million for the previous week (originally reported as 1.786 million).According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents, Silvercorp Metals Inc. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.S&P Global has launched a credit memo generation tool powered by intelligent agent-based artificial intelligence.

WTI crude oil climbs above $80.00 as NFP and recession fears contend with an OPEC+ surprise

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:36

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As energy markets celebrate the Good Friday holiday, WTI crude oil prices remain stable around $80.50, poised for a three-week uptrend. In doing so, black gold defends the week-beginning gains provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, headed by Russia, known as OPEC+, who announced a surprise output cut. However, concerns of a recession and a cautious disposition ahead of the March US employment report have recently posed a challenge to the energy benchmark.

 

The OPEC+ group startled the market with a voluntary output decline of nearly 1.66 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, in response to the OPEC+ announcements, that the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output risks aggravating a stressed market by driving up oil prices in response to inflationary pressures.

 

On the other hand, the US Dollar's weakness, bolstered by disappointing US data, supported the recovery of the black gold.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a four-day losing streak and is currently trading around 102.000.

 

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 increased to 228K from 200K expected and an upwardly revised 246K the previous week. Notable is that the Challenger Job Cuts for the given month increased from 77,77K to 89,703K. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K also disappointed markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 compared to 54.5 anticipated and 55.1 previously.

 

China's optimism for economic development and optimistic activity data from the dragon nation could also support the oil price. Pan Gongsheng, the director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated on Friday that Beijing "will defend itself against external financial market shocks and risks."

 

It should be noted, however, that recent calls for a recession pose a challenge to WTI crude oil purchasers, and more signs of economic decline should be monitored for direction, particularly when commodity prices trade near the key short-term resistance line.

 

In addition to the news about the recession, the March US employment report will be crucial to monitor for direction. Analysts anticipate a decline in headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K previously, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. However, the contradictory forecasts for Average Hourly Wages make the outcome even more intriguing.


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