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On May 18, US President Trump stated in an interview that he still believes Iran is willing to reach an agreement and expects Iran to submit an updated proposal in the coming days. Trump reportedly declined to reveal a deadline for the negotiations but indicated that the US would take stronger military action if Iran did not meet US demands regarding its nuclear program.① Iran 1. Iranian military: If the US launches another military operation, it will face an offensive response. 2. Iranian Foreign Ministry: The US and Israel are using "maintaining energy stability" as a pretext to justify the war against Iran. 3. Iranian Vice President: Iran will no longer allow enemy military equipment to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Iran: Iran says it is prepared to respond to a potential escalation of the situation by the US. 5. Iran: The US has presented Iran with five key conditions, including that the US will not pay any war reparations and that Iran will only be allowed to maintain one operational nuclear facility. ② US 1. US Energy Secretary: The Strait of Hormuz will reopen no later than this summer. 2. Two US officials revealed that Trump is expected to meet with his national security team in the Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss military options. 3. Sources: Trump met with senior members of his national security team on Saturday to discuss the next steps in the war with Iran. 4. Trump stated on social media on Sunday that if Iran does not act swiftly, it will have nothing. ③ Israel 1. Following the "extension of the ceasefire," Israel launched a large-scale airstrike on southern Lebanon. 2. Sources: Israel has secretly established at least two military outposts in Iraq. 3. Israeli media: Netanyahu and Trump spoke by phone to discuss the possibility of resuming hostilities in Iraq. If military operations against Iraq resume, it is expected that Israel and the United States will launch joint airstrikes. 6. Other situations: 1. The Israeli military claims to have killed a commander at the Hamas operations headquarters. 2. Lebanon claims the Israeli attack caused approximately $2 billion in economic damage. 3. NATO intelligence agencies believe Iran still retains most of its missile stockpile and facilities. 4. A generator outside the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE was attacked by a drone and caught fire. 5. The International Atomic Energy Agency: The UAE stated that radiation levels at the Barakah nuclear power plant are normal and that no casualties were reported after the drone attack. 6. The International Criminal Court denies issuing new arrest warrants for several Israeli officials. On May 18, Kyrgyz President Sadil Japarov called on world leaders to vote for Kyrgyzstan as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council on June 3. Japarov emphasized, "Choosing Kyrgyzstan will reflect the world communitys political will to restore historical justice and ensure that all countries are elected equally to the highest organs of the United Nations."The UAEs nuclear regulator stated that no radioactive leaks occurred following the Barakah nuclear power plant incident, and there is no risk to the public.On May 18, shipping giants CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd announced on Sunday that they had suspended all bookings to and from Cuba until further notice. Both companies cited a May 1 U.S. executive order, the latest blow to Cubas crisis-ridden economy. Two sources said the temporary suspension of new orders by the worlds two largest shipping companies could jeopardize up to 60% of Cubas freight volume. This comes after the U.S. oil blockade severely restricted Cubas fuel supply. The executive order signed by Trump on May 1 expanded existing U.S. sanctions on Cuban trade to include "any foreign person doing business in the energy, defense and related materials, metals and mining, financial services or security sectors of the Cuban economy, or any other sector of the Cuban economy."

WTI corrects below $77.00 as buyers grow nervous ahead of the Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Daniel Rogers

Mar 01, 2023 11:42

After encountering stiffer resistance above $77.50 in the late New York session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have sharply reversed. As investors wait for the Caixin Manufacturing PMI data to be released, the oil price has fallen to $76.60 and is expected to remain on edge.

 

There is no disputing that international organizations and investment banking firms are optimistic about a strong economic rebound in China following the administration's dismantling of pandemic controls following a three-year lockdown. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has pledged a complete recovery in domestic demand through expansionary monetary policy, so China's post-pandemic period is anticipated to be robust.

 

Investors are anxiously awaiting February's figures after being taken aback by January's disappointingly low Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. A prolonged period of negativity would be detrimental to the market's oil prices. In general, investors continue to be risk cautious as they anticipate a bleak future due to aggressive Western central banks. And the current low Manufacturing PMI for China will make investors' risk aversion even worse.

 

The majority predicts that IHS Markit will issue the Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 50.2, up from the previous release of 49.2.

 

In addition to the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the United States Energy Information Administration's (EIA) oil inventory data for the week concluding February 24 will be closely monitored.

 

Despite being smaller than the previous release of nearly 10 million barrels, US American Petroleum on Tuesday reported a massive stockpile of oil stockpiles of 6.20 million barrels. For the past three months, oil inventories have been steadily growing, pointing to a sharp drop in global consumption.