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A Reuters poll showed that 65% of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to raise its key interest rate to 1.00% in June.A Reuters poll shows that the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 1.25% in the fourth quarter and to 1.50% in the third quarter of 2027 (unchanged from the April poll results).The Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia stated that the country will inevitably be directly and indirectly affected by the Middle East conflict. The Malaysian economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026, with growth projected at 4%-5%. Despite external headwinds, technological expansion will support export growth. Strong domestic demand will provide strong support against external headwinds.Central Bank of Malaysia: Indicators show that overall price conditions remained relatively under control as of early May. Overall inflation is expected to rise slightly in 2026. The ringgit remains resilient despite ongoing Middle East conflicts.On May 15th, the Bank of Japan stated that Japan may face another round of across-the-board price increases around the summer as businesses ranging from food manufacturers to hot spring resorts consider passing on soaring energy costs caused by the Middle East conflict to consumers. In a report based on a survey of regional businesses conducted from January to April, the Bank of Japan noted that many service sector companies are gradually passing on rising raw material and labor costs to consumers, abandoning their long-standing practice of maintaining low prices. The report stated that rising energy costs due to the Middle East conflict have also prompted companies to accelerate price increases in their fiscal year business plans starting in April. Some companies, including those in the food, restaurant, and hot spring resort industries, have decided to raise prices at a faster pace. The report stated, "Other companies indicated they will soon decide whether to raise prices. As for the specific timing, some companies indicated they will decide around the summer or later." This report highlights the Bank of Japans growing concern about accumulating inflationary pressures in the economy, which could provide further justification for a near-term interest rate hike.

USD/JPY falls to 146.00 as the DXY weakens and interest in BOJ policy rises

Alina Haynes

Oct 27, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, in response to negative signals from the US dollar index, the USD/JPY pair plunged below 146.00. (DXY). Following Wednesday's low of 146.22, the asset's two-day downward trend has extended. The main index is reaching the bottom of Monday's knee-jerk reaction near 145.77 as it continues to decline.

 

The dollar bears are facing a severe sell-off due to the positive market sentiment. The risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from an increase in risk appetite. The US dollar index (DXY) has struck a new monthly low of 109.56 and is anticipated to stay volatile until the release of crucial US economic data.

 

The increased demand for U.S. government bonds has resulted in a decline in yields. This is due to the global markets' increased confidence. The yield on 10-year United States Treasury notes has decreased to 4%.

 

According to estimates, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter. Despite the ultra-hawkish monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the previously disclosed 0.6% fall in growth, forecasts indicate a positive growth rate.

 

In addition, US Durable Goods Orders data will continue to be a key point. Compared to a reduction of 0.2%, it is projected that economic statistics will increase by 0.6%. Notable is the increase in core inflation, which includes oil and food prices. In spite of this, the predicted increase in demand for durable goods in the United States demonstrates healthy household demand.

 

Investors in Tokyo are anticipating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on Friday. In view of the shocks to foreign demand, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will continue an ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate the outlook for economic development. In addition, Japanese policymakers are anxious that the inflation rate could go below 2%; hence, an extremely liberal policy is the best alternative.

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