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On June 9th, Tatha Ghose, an analyst at Commerzbank, noted in a report that rising energy prices due to the situation in Iran have significantly improved Russias oil and gas revenues recently, providing support for the ruble. However, he stated that energy prices may decline by the end of the year, and the damage to refineries caused by the Ukrainian airstrikes and the reimposition of US sanctions are expected to prevent Russia from utilizing its newly expanded OPEC+ production quotas in the medium term. "Once the benefits from high oil prices fade, we expect the ruble to resume its depreciation."June 9th - Comerica Bank Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Bill Adams predicts that the US May CPI will rise above 4% year-on-year, reaching a three-year high, mainly driven by last months gasoline price increases. Core CPI is expected to remain relatively moderate, close to 3%. The fact that Mays price increases exceeded the growth rate of average hourly wages indicates further erosion of consumers real purchasing power. Meanwhile, the PPI is also expected to record another significant increase, exceeding the CPI, reflecting the higher weighting of petroleum products, metals, and transportation costs in the producer price basket. Furthermore, the preliminary consumer confidence index released by the University of Michigan in early June is expected to rebound from Mays record low, mainly boosted by the decline in gasoline prices over the past two weeks and the rise in the stock market.June 9 – Christopher Hui, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, announced the “Action Plan for the Development of Hong Kong Corporate Treasury Centres” at the Corporate Treasury Centre Forum today (June 9). The Action Plan proposes targeted strategies to strengthen Hong Kong’s position as a major hub for multinational corporate treasury centers, elevating Hong Kong to a primary base for corporate treasury centers and reinforcing Hong Kong’s role as a platform for “bringing in” and “going out”. The Action Plan, jointly prepared by the Financial Services and the Treasury, the Inland Revenue Department, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), and InvestHK, has two main objectives: to attract more multinational companies to establish corporate treasury centers in Hong Kong, and to assist existing corporate treasury centers in Hong Kong to expand their scale and fully utilize Hong Kong’s comprehensive financial ecosystem.According to the Syrian state news agency, the Syrian energy minister met with the Egyptian energy minister on Tuesday at the Global Energy Forum in Washington to discuss expanding cooperation in the energy sector.June 9th - Jan Felix Gloeckner, an analyst at Insight Investment, stated that the likelihood of a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike on Thursday is virtually certain due to the lack of breakthroughs in the Middle East situation and the renewed escalation of conflict. In a report, the senior investment expert noted, "The latest forecasts from ECB staff are likely more inclined towards the adverse scenario presented in March, namely sustained inflation and a gradual slowdown in economic growth." Given that the energy shock is expected to last longer, Insight Investment believes there may be room for a second rate hike later this year. He stated that the market will be particularly focused on policy path guidance after June, and the ECB is expected to maintain policy flexibility.

USD/JPY falls to 146.00 as the DXY weakens and interest in BOJ policy rises

Alina Haynes

Oct 27, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, in response to negative signals from the US dollar index, the USD/JPY pair plunged below 146.00. (DXY). Following Wednesday's low of 146.22, the asset's two-day downward trend has extended. The main index is reaching the bottom of Monday's knee-jerk reaction near 145.77 as it continues to decline.

 

The dollar bears are facing a severe sell-off due to the positive market sentiment. The risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from an increase in risk appetite. The US dollar index (DXY) has struck a new monthly low of 109.56 and is anticipated to stay volatile until the release of crucial US economic data.

 

The increased demand for U.S. government bonds has resulted in a decline in yields. This is due to the global markets' increased confidence. The yield on 10-year United States Treasury notes has decreased to 4%.

 

According to estimates, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter. Despite the ultra-hawkish monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the previously disclosed 0.6% fall in growth, forecasts indicate a positive growth rate.

 

In addition, US Durable Goods Orders data will continue to be a key point. Compared to a reduction of 0.2%, it is projected that economic statistics will increase by 0.6%. Notable is the increase in core inflation, which includes oil and food prices. In spite of this, the predicted increase in demand for durable goods in the United States demonstrates healthy household demand.

 

Investors in Tokyo are anticipating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on Friday. In view of the shocks to foreign demand, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will continue an ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate the outlook for economic development. In addition, Japanese policymakers are anxious that the inflation rate could go below 2%; hence, an extremely liberal policy is the best alternative.