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On September 20th, the German Institute for Economic Research released its autumn economic forecast, significantly raising its 2026 economic growth forecast for Germany from 0.4% to 1.2%. The institute stated that the upward revision was mainly due to strong economic growth in the first half of this year. However, the institute predicts that "growth momentum will slow again in the second half of 2026." This is attributed to the expiration of special export incentives, high energy prices suppressing private consumption, and the continued crisis in the construction industry, primarily driven by government investment. The institute projects German economic growth to be slightly below 1% in 2027. The institute also warned that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East situation, international trade conflicts, and declining water levels in major European rivers could all negatively impact the German economy. Furthermore, influenced by rising energy prices, the institute predicts that Germanys inflation rate in 2026 will be slightly above 2.5%, while consumption is expected to grow by only 0.3%.September 20 - According to the website of the China Maritime Safety Administration, the Tangshan Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning that live-fire shooting activities will be conducted in parts of the Bohai Sea from 00:00 on September 21 to 24:00 on September 24, and entry is prohibited.On September 20, local time, the Central Command of Irans Hatem Anbia issued a statement saying that intelligence indicated the United States, in an attempt to cover up its failures and gain benefits from the war, decided, with the tacit approval of certain Middle Eastern countries, to take hostile action against Iran again after a joint meeting in a European country. The statement warned that if the United States makes any mistakes against Iran, all its bases and interests in the region will suffer sustained, effective, and devastating blows without reservation. The statement also indicated that Iran warned regional countries that if they continue to pursue a "double-dealing policy" towards Iran and cooperate with its enemies, they will be considered accomplices; at that point, they will no longer be able to expect restraint or tolerance from the Iranian armed forces.On September 20th, local time, explosions were heard in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Kyiv Mayor Viktor Klitschko reported that Russian military drones were attacking the city, and Kyivs air defense system was operational. There has been no response from Russia at this time.According to Iranian state media, the Central Command of the Iranian Armed Forces stated that the United States is planning new actions against Iran with the permission of its regional allies. The plan was coordinated and formulated at a European summit.

USD/JPY falls to 146.00 as the DXY weakens and interest in BOJ policy rises

Alina Haynes

Oct 27, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, in response to negative signals from the US dollar index, the USD/JPY pair plunged below 146.00. (DXY). Following Wednesday's low of 146.22, the asset's two-day downward trend has extended. The main index is reaching the bottom of Monday's knee-jerk reaction near 145.77 as it continues to decline.

 

The dollar bears are facing a severe sell-off due to the positive market sentiment. The risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from an increase in risk appetite. The US dollar index (DXY) has struck a new monthly low of 109.56 and is anticipated to stay volatile until the release of crucial US economic data.

 

The increased demand for U.S. government bonds has resulted in a decline in yields. This is due to the global markets' increased confidence. The yield on 10-year United States Treasury notes has decreased to 4%.

 

According to estimates, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter. Despite the ultra-hawkish monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the previously disclosed 0.6% fall in growth, forecasts indicate a positive growth rate.

 

In addition, US Durable Goods Orders data will continue to be a key point. Compared to a reduction of 0.2%, it is projected that economic statistics will increase by 0.6%. Notable is the increase in core inflation, which includes oil and food prices. In spite of this, the predicted increase in demand for durable goods in the United States demonstrates healthy household demand.

 

Investors in Tokyo are anticipating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on Friday. In view of the shocks to foreign demand, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will continue an ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate the outlook for economic development. In addition, Japanese policymakers are anxious that the inflation rate could go below 2%; hence, an extremely liberal policy is the best alternative.

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