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Market news: Microsoft (MSFT.O) is replacing OpenAI and Anthropic models with its own AI models in some applications.On July 8th, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, which stated that it expects U.S. power sector natural gas consumption to reach a record high next year, driven primarily by rising overall electricity demand, expansion of natural gas generating capacity, and relatively low natural gas prices. The report forecasts a slight increase in natural gas demand across the economy this year, followed by a 3% increase in 2027. It predicts that wholesale electricity prices this summer will be lower than last summer, primarily due to lower natural gas costs delivered to power plants—however, summer heat waves could still cause prices to surge. Nationally, wholesale electricity prices are expected to average around $45 per megawatt-hour, with the largest price drops expected in western hub regions.On July 8th, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, stating that it forecasts gasoline prices to average $3.80 per gallon in the third quarter of 2026, down from over $4.20 per gallon in the second quarter. It expects retail prices to fall to around $3.40 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2026. The EIA forecasts that the average annual retail gasoline price will fall below $3.10 per gallon in 2027.On July 8th, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, stating that increased oil production and the recovery of trade flows will lead to lower-than-expected crude oil inventory depletion in the coming months. We project a 2.2 million barrel per day (bpd) decrease in global oil inventories in the third quarter of 2026, compared to our June forecast of over 7 million bpd, and a 5 million bpd decrease in the second quarter of 2026. Next year, we expect rising oil production to return the market to a pre-conflict oversupply state.On July 8th, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, noting that on June 18th, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz. With the signing of the agreement and increased traffic through the strait, we have raised our forecast for global oil production for the remainder of this year. We now expect most crude oil production to recover to near pre-conflict levels by the end of this year, and most of the shut-down crude oil production to come online in the first quarter of 2027.

USD/JPY falls to 146.00 as the DXY weakens and interest in BOJ policy rises

Alina Haynes

Oct 27, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, in response to negative signals from the US dollar index, the USD/JPY pair plunged below 146.00. (DXY). Following Wednesday's low of 146.22, the asset's two-day downward trend has extended. The main index is reaching the bottom of Monday's knee-jerk reaction near 145.77 as it continues to decline.

 

The dollar bears are facing a severe sell-off due to the positive market sentiment. The risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from an increase in risk appetite. The US dollar index (DXY) has struck a new monthly low of 109.56 and is anticipated to stay volatile until the release of crucial US economic data.

 

The increased demand for U.S. government bonds has resulted in a decline in yields. This is due to the global markets' increased confidence. The yield on 10-year United States Treasury notes has decreased to 4%.

 

According to estimates, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter. Despite the ultra-hawkish monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the previously disclosed 0.6% fall in growth, forecasts indicate a positive growth rate.

 

In addition, US Durable Goods Orders data will continue to be a key point. Compared to a reduction of 0.2%, it is projected that economic statistics will increase by 0.6%. Notable is the increase in core inflation, which includes oil and food prices. In spite of this, the predicted increase in demand for durable goods in the United States demonstrates healthy household demand.

 

Investors in Tokyo are anticipating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on Friday. In view of the shocks to foreign demand, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will continue an ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate the outlook for economic development. In addition, Japanese policymakers are anxious that the inflation rate could go below 2%; hence, an extremely liberal policy is the best alternative.

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