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The yield on Japans two-year government bonds rose 0.5 basis points to 1.73%, the highest level since April 1995.Tensions in the Middle East escalated again over the weekend, causing a surge in crude oil prices this morning, which is expected to support a higher market opening this week. If the situation in the Middle East continues with both peace talks and conflict, the market is likely to continue consolidating at high levels this week.SoftBank Group shares fell about 4.8%, and Tokyo Electron shares fell more than 4%.On August 31st, Japans industrial production rose 0.1% month-on-month in July, better than the expected 0.7% decline; retail sales rose 2.4% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year, both significantly exceeding expectations. Manufacturers expect industrial production to grow by 6.4% in August, followed by a 4.2% decline in September. The much stronger-than-expected industrial production data mitigated some short-term downside risks priced into the markets assessment of Japans economic growth prospects. The sharp rebound in retail sales, both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicates that consumer spending performed better than suggested by the decline in June. This is significant for the Bank of Japans ongoing discussion on whether domestic demand can continue to drive inflation. The manufacturers survey indicates that industrial production is expected to grow strongly by 6.4% in August, but will decline significantly in September, suggesting that the current strong performance may be partly due to advance production or a rebound after a previous decline, rather than a genuine acceleration of the industrial cycle. According to the US financial website InvestingLive, combined with US Treasury Secretary Bessants recent remarks that the pace of interest rate hikes is effectively left to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, the resilience of economic growth and consumption further weakens the reasons for the Bank of Japan to postpone further tightening of its policy.The Nikkei 225 index opened down 731.46 points, or 1.10%, at 65,674.10 on Monday, August 31.

USD/JPY falls to 146.00 as the DXY weakens and interest in BOJ policy rises

Alina Haynes

Oct 27, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, in response to negative signals from the US dollar index, the USD/JPY pair plunged below 146.00. (DXY). Following Wednesday's low of 146.22, the asset's two-day downward trend has extended. The main index is reaching the bottom of Monday's knee-jerk reaction near 145.77 as it continues to decline.

 

The dollar bears are facing a severe sell-off due to the positive market sentiment. The risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from an increase in risk appetite. The US dollar index (DXY) has struck a new monthly low of 109.56 and is anticipated to stay volatile until the release of crucial US economic data.

 

The increased demand for U.S. government bonds has resulted in a decline in yields. This is due to the global markets' increased confidence. The yield on 10-year United States Treasury notes has decreased to 4%.

 

According to estimates, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter. Despite the ultra-hawkish monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the previously disclosed 0.6% fall in growth, forecasts indicate a positive growth rate.

 

In addition, US Durable Goods Orders data will continue to be a key point. Compared to a reduction of 0.2%, it is projected that economic statistics will increase by 0.6%. Notable is the increase in core inflation, which includes oil and food prices. In spite of this, the predicted increase in demand for durable goods in the United States demonstrates healthy household demand.

 

Investors in Tokyo are anticipating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on Friday. In view of the shocks to foreign demand, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will continue an ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate the outlook for economic development. In addition, Japanese policymakers are anxious that the inflation rate could go below 2%; hence, an extremely liberal policy is the best alternative.

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