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January 20, Japanese government bond yields retreated on Monday as traders prepared for potential volatility before Trump is sworn in. Its not just Trumps inauguration speech that could hit the market, but also the roughly 100 executive orders he will implement on his first day in office. Bank of Japan policymakers will be watching Trumps moves closely and how investors react, and they have strongly hinted that they will raise interest rates to 0.5% on Friday if there is no market volatility. But Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities, believes that there is a high probability of a long pause after this weeks rate hike, which is one of the reasons why bond yields remain low. Ueno said the Bank of Japans view is that "the closer the policy rate is to neutral, the more necessary it will be to make further adjustments more gradually." "Therefore, market participants may have good reason to believe that the interval between this weeks rate hike and further normalization measures will be longer than the approximately six-month interval between last Julys rate hike and this weeks rate hike, especially considering that the upper house election will be held in July 2025."Iran set the price of its light crude oil sales to Asia in February at a premium of $1.95 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average price.On January 20, Xpeng Motors announced that as of January 18, Xpeng MONA had achieved deliveries of over 60,000 units; it took only 15 days to deliver an additional 10,000 units, with an average of more than 666 units delivered per day, setting a new record for pure electric delivery of new forces.Futures January 20, Economies.com analysts latest view today: Brent crude oil prices have been under significant selling pressure in the previous few trading sessions, causing it to fall below the support line of the bull market channel, starting a bearish correction process. The first target price is set at 80.10. Once this price is effectively broken, the price may continue to fall to 78.40. In view of this, we expect market sentiment to be bearish today. However, if the price can rebound and break through the key level of 81.65, it may put the price back on the uptrend and challenge the recent high of 82.82. The expected trading range for Brent crude oil today is set between 79.30 (support) and 82.30 (resistance). Overall trend outlook: bearish.Futures January 20, Economies.com analysts latest view today: WTI crude oil futures prices have clearly fallen below the support line of the bullish channel and started a bearish correction at the intraday level. The initial goal is to test the support level of 77.53. If this support level is lost, the price may continue to fall, and the next bearish target is 75.53. A double top pattern has been completed on the price chart. This technical pattern reinforces the expectation that prices will continue to fall in the short term. However, if the price can rebound and break through the key level of 79.30, it may reverse the current bearish trend and re-stimulate bullish sentiment in the market. The expected trading range for crude oil today is set between 77.00 (support) and 80.00 (resistance). Overall trend outlook: bearish.

USD/JPY falls to 146.00 as the DXY weakens and interest in BOJ policy rises

Alina Haynes

Oct 27, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, in response to negative signals from the US dollar index, the USD/JPY pair plunged below 146.00. (DXY). Following Wednesday's low of 146.22, the asset's two-day downward trend has extended. The main index is reaching the bottom of Monday's knee-jerk reaction near 145.77 as it continues to decline.

 

The dollar bears are facing a severe sell-off due to the positive market sentiment. The risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from an increase in risk appetite. The US dollar index (DXY) has struck a new monthly low of 109.56 and is anticipated to stay volatile until the release of crucial US economic data.

 

The increased demand for U.S. government bonds has resulted in a decline in yields. This is due to the global markets' increased confidence. The yield on 10-year United States Treasury notes has decreased to 4%.

 

According to estimates, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter. Despite the ultra-hawkish monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the previously disclosed 0.6% fall in growth, forecasts indicate a positive growth rate.

 

In addition, US Durable Goods Orders data will continue to be a key point. Compared to a reduction of 0.2%, it is projected that economic statistics will increase by 0.6%. Notable is the increase in core inflation, which includes oil and food prices. In spite of this, the predicted increase in demand for durable goods in the United States demonstrates healthy household demand.

 

Investors in Tokyo are anticipating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on Friday. In view of the shocks to foreign demand, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will continue an ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate the outlook for economic development. In addition, Japanese policymakers are anxious that the inflation rate could go below 2%; hence, an extremely liberal policy is the best alternative.

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