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On January 28th, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on January 27th that if Iran attacks Israel, Israel will retaliate with "force Iran has never seen before." Regarding claims about proceeding with reconstruction before the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, Netanyahu explicitly stated that this "will not happen." He also denied rumors that Israel had allowed Turkey and Qatar to participate in the Gaza International Stabilization Force, saying, "That will also not happen." Netanyahu further asserted that the establishment of a Palestinian state in the Gaza Strip "has not happened in the past, and will never happen again."On January 28th, Westpac joined other major banks in predicting a 25 basis point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its February meeting. Westpac believes that persistently high inflation has cast a "decisive vote" for policy tightening, while maintaining its basic assessment that this rate hike will be a one-off move, not the start of a long-term rate hike cycle. Westpac argues that accurately identifying spare capacity in an economy nearing full employment and full capacity utilization is difficult. In this environment, inflation outcomes become the most reliable policy guide. The bank points out that underlying inflationary momentum is currently higher than the level needed for a smooth return to the RBAs 2-3% target range, leaving the RBA with little room to delay action. Nevertheless, Westpac does not expect automatic and continuous rate hikes. Current policy is considered to be at a restrictive level, and the remaining task of cooling inflation is relatively modest. The most likely outcome is a wait-and-see approach after February, while clearly conveying that the RBA is prepared to act again if inflation fails to slow as expected.According to futures news on January 28th, for the week ending January 24th, Japanese commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 271,837 kiloliters from the previous week to 9,251,160 kiloliters. Japanese gasoline inventories increased by 54,578 kiloliters from the previous week to 1,718,926 kiloliters. Japanese kerosene inventories decreased by 69,137 kiloliters from the previous week to 1,930,575 kiloliters. The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 91.1%, compared to 89.7% the previous week.January 28 – Following the completion of necessary internal procedures by both parties, the Hong Kong-Turkey Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (Investment Agreement) will come into effect on February 4. According to the agreement, both governments commit to providing protections for each others investors, such as fair, equitable, and non-discriminatory treatment of their investments, compensation in the event of investment expropriation, and allowing the free transfer of investments and profits overseas. The agreement also stipulates that investment disputes can be resolved in accordance with internationally recognized rules, including arbitration. Hong Kongs Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development, Edward Yau, stated that by strengthening investment protections, the Investment Agreement will enhance investor confidence, expand investment flows between Hong Kong and Turkey, and benefit the economic development of both places.On January 28, the World Health Organization (WHO) responded to the recent Nipah virus outbreak in India, stating that a case of Nipah virus infection has been confirmed in West Bengal, eastern India. Since the case was reported, the WHO has maintained close communication with local health authorities, conducting risk assessments and providing technical support. Necessary resources, including laboratory support, have been mobilized, and enhanced surveillance and infection prevention measures have been implemented. Based on current information, the WHO assesses that the risk of further spread from these confirmed cases is low. The local authorities have the capacity to effectively manage such outbreaks, and local health teams are fully implementing the public health response measures recommended by the WHO. To date, there is no evidence of increased human-to-human transmission of the virus.

USD/JPY falls to 146.00 as the DXY weakens and interest in BOJ policy rises

Alina Haynes

Oct 27, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, in response to negative signals from the US dollar index, the USD/JPY pair plunged below 146.00. (DXY). Following Wednesday's low of 146.22, the asset's two-day downward trend has extended. The main index is reaching the bottom of Monday's knee-jerk reaction near 145.77 as it continues to decline.

 

The dollar bears are facing a severe sell-off due to the positive market sentiment. The risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from an increase in risk appetite. The US dollar index (DXY) has struck a new monthly low of 109.56 and is anticipated to stay volatile until the release of crucial US economic data.

 

The increased demand for U.S. government bonds has resulted in a decline in yields. This is due to the global markets' increased confidence. The yield on 10-year United States Treasury notes has decreased to 4%.

 

According to estimates, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter. Despite the ultra-hawkish monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the previously disclosed 0.6% fall in growth, forecasts indicate a positive growth rate.

 

In addition, US Durable Goods Orders data will continue to be a key point. Compared to a reduction of 0.2%, it is projected that economic statistics will increase by 0.6%. Notable is the increase in core inflation, which includes oil and food prices. In spite of this, the predicted increase in demand for durable goods in the United States demonstrates healthy household demand.

 

Investors in Tokyo are anticipating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on Friday. In view of the shocks to foreign demand, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will continue an ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate the outlook for economic development. In addition, Japanese policymakers are anxious that the inflation rate could go below 2%; hence, an extremely liberal policy is the best alternative.