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United Auto Workers (UAW): More than 1,000 UAW Local 400 members voted to approve the new agreement.July 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that the closely watched dot plot of interest rates will remain in place for at least some time while the Fed evaluates its communication policies. "The dot plot will remain in place for at least some time," Warsh said at a monetary policy forum in Portugal, "but we have a dedicated group that will review this mechanism."Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh: ① Employment – The labor market is stable, and economic demand is strong. ② Policy – He declined to comment on whether there would be a rate hike in July, stating there would be ample debate. ③ Balance Sheet – Its no secret that I expect the Feds balance sheet to shrink. ④ Forward Guidance – We will pave a new path, reiterating that we will not provide forward guidance, at least in the short term, and will retain the dot plot. ⑤ Inflation – Inflation expectations and risks have declined in recent weeks; the Fed is committed to reducing inflation to its 2% target. ⑥ Reform – There may be news next week regarding the appointment of task force leaders. The goal is to achieve data-driven policymaking within a year. ⑦ Artificial Intelligence – Artificial intelligence has led to a surge in capital expenditure and a significant increase in demand. There is currently insufficient information to determine whether it is inflationary. Bank of England Governor Bailey: ① Inflation – Energy prices have fallen. ② Forward Guidance – Forward guidance has become quite tricky after a period of time. ③ Employment – Economic activity and the labor market are slowing; the output gap is widening. ④ Balance Sheet – We hope to remove interest rate risk from the central banks balance sheet. ⑤ Artificial Intelligence – Whether artificial intelligence will create or destroy jobs remains undecided. ⑥ Policy Issues – Interest rate cuts are not currently being considered. Policy has already been tightened without raising rates. ECB President Lagarde: ① Economic Issues – Europe is not in a state of stagflation. ② Artificial Intelligence – Europe and the US are interdependent in artificial intelligence. ③ Forward Guidance – My only regret is that we were constrained by forward guidance in the past. ④ Inflation Issues – The risks to inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone are now more balanced than they were a few weeks ago. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: ① Economic Issues – The Canadian economy is weak. Stock valuations appear too high. ② Inflation Issues – Inflation is significantly above target. We will keep inflation expectations stable. ③ Balance Sheet – The Bank of Canadas balance sheet has returned to a new stable state. ④ Artificial Intelligence – When AI-driven inflation will begin to decline remains an open question. We are seeing computer price increases in the short term. ⑤ Policy Issues – We are at the lower end of the neutral interest rate range, roughly at a level that can contain inflation. We are prepared to act if circumstances change.On July 1st, Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu chaired an executive meeting of the ministry, which reviewed and approved in principle the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Diversified Investment in Scientific and Technological Innovation in the Field of Ecology and Environment" and the "Water Environmental Quality Standards for Drinking Water Sources." The meeting pointed out that building a diversified investment mechanism for scientific and technological innovation in the field of ecology and environment is a powerful measure to enhance the supply capacity and industrialization level of scientific and technological innovation. It is necessary to accelerate the construction of a diversified investment pattern for scientific and technological innovation, improve the fiscal guidance mechanism, enrich the supply of financial products, drive social resource investment, and promote the efficient allocation of innovation resources. It is also necessary to improve the full-chain supervision system covering project initiation, fund use, process supervision, and performance evaluation, strengthen penetrating supervision and dynamic monitoring, and further enhance the supporting and leading role of scientific and technological innovation in the construction of a beautiful China.The U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories for the week ending June 26 will be released in ten minutes.

USD/JPY falls to 146.00 as the DXY weakens and interest in BOJ policy rises

Alina Haynes

Oct 27, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, in response to negative signals from the US dollar index, the USD/JPY pair plunged below 146.00. (DXY). Following Wednesday's low of 146.22, the asset's two-day downward trend has extended. The main index is reaching the bottom of Monday's knee-jerk reaction near 145.77 as it continues to decline.

 

The dollar bears are facing a severe sell-off due to the positive market sentiment. The risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from an increase in risk appetite. The US dollar index (DXY) has struck a new monthly low of 109.56 and is anticipated to stay volatile until the release of crucial US economic data.

 

The increased demand for U.S. government bonds has resulted in a decline in yields. This is due to the global markets' increased confidence. The yield on 10-year United States Treasury notes has decreased to 4%.

 

According to estimates, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter. Despite the ultra-hawkish monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the previously disclosed 0.6% fall in growth, forecasts indicate a positive growth rate.

 

In addition, US Durable Goods Orders data will continue to be a key point. Compared to a reduction of 0.2%, it is projected that economic statistics will increase by 0.6%. Notable is the increase in core inflation, which includes oil and food prices. In spite of this, the predicted increase in demand for durable goods in the United States demonstrates healthy household demand.

 

Investors in Tokyo are anticipating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on Friday. In view of the shocks to foreign demand, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will continue an ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate the outlook for economic development. In addition, Japanese policymakers are anxious that the inflation rate could go below 2%; hence, an extremely liberal policy is the best alternative.

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