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On August 17th, Goldman Sachs stated that market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike remain overly aggressive, given that US inflation is cooling. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report that the likelihood of a Fed rate hike at its September meeting is "extremely low" due to weak retail sales data, disappointing employment data, and continued slowing inflation. Hatzius wrote, "Based on our baseline economic projections, the probability of further improvement in inflation data over time is higher than the probability of a resurgence. We still believe that the market is pricing in an overly hawkish federal funds rate." Data shows that the market has postponed its expectation of the next 25 basis point Fed rate hike to January next year, while just a week ago the market fully anticipated a December rate hike. Goldman Sachs believes that although market pricing is no longer so hawkish, there is still room for rate hike expectations to recede further.On August 17th, Takehiko Nakao, former Japanese Finance Minister and President of the Asian Development Bank, stated that the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates at every policy meeting, aiming to elevate the benchmark rate to above 2% to narrow the interest rate differential between Japan and the US and alleviate pressure on the yens depreciation. He noted that even with Japans policy rate already at 1%, its real interest rate remains negative, while other countries have positive real interest rates. He believes that with inflation around 2%, a policy rate of 2.25% or 2.5% in Japan would not be uncommon.On August 17th, according to Tianyancha App, Kunming Beiye Data Technology Co., Ltd. was recently established. The legal representative is Qiu Jinghao, with a registered capital of 700 million RMB. It is a limited liability company (wholly foreign-owned), currently in operation, and its registered address is located in the Digital Economy Industrial Park, Enclosed Area of the Mohan-Boten Cooperation Zone. The companys business scope includes software development, information system integration services, information technology consulting services, and retail of computer hardware, software, and auxiliary equipment. Shareholder information shows that Beijing Zitiao Network Technology Co., Ltd. holds 100% of the companys shares, with a subscribed capital of 700 million RMB.Japanese power company J-Power: It will build a data center in Kaminokuni, Hokkaido, and will begin selling its GPU data center computing power in the summer of 2027.Geely Automobile (00175.HK): Profit attributable to owners of the parent company for the first half of 2026 was RMB 9.091 billion, a decrease of 2% year-on-year.

USD/JPY falls to 146.00 as the DXY weakens and interest in BOJ policy rises

Alina Haynes

Oct 27, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, in response to negative signals from the US dollar index, the USD/JPY pair plunged below 146.00. (DXY). Following Wednesday's low of 146.22, the asset's two-day downward trend has extended. The main index is reaching the bottom of Monday's knee-jerk reaction near 145.77 as it continues to decline.

 

The dollar bears are facing a severe sell-off due to the positive market sentiment. The risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from an increase in risk appetite. The US dollar index (DXY) has struck a new monthly low of 109.56 and is anticipated to stay volatile until the release of crucial US economic data.

 

The increased demand for U.S. government bonds has resulted in a decline in yields. This is due to the global markets' increased confidence. The yield on 10-year United States Treasury notes has decreased to 4%.

 

According to estimates, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter. Despite the ultra-hawkish monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the previously disclosed 0.6% fall in growth, forecasts indicate a positive growth rate.

 

In addition, US Durable Goods Orders data will continue to be a key point. Compared to a reduction of 0.2%, it is projected that economic statistics will increase by 0.6%. Notable is the increase in core inflation, which includes oil and food prices. In spite of this, the predicted increase in demand for durable goods in the United States demonstrates healthy household demand.

 

Investors in Tokyo are anticipating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on Friday. In view of the shocks to foreign demand, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will continue an ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate the outlook for economic development. In addition, Japanese policymakers are anxious that the inflation rate could go below 2%; hence, an extremely liberal policy is the best alternative.

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