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Japans core machinery orders month-on-month rate in July was -4.6%, in line with expectations of -1.70% and the previous value of 3.00%.Japans core machinery orders in July were 4.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations of 5.4% and the previous value of 7.60%.On September 18, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, in response to questions about the central banks statutory requirement to achieve "moderate long-term interest rates" at a press conference following the interest rate decision on Wednesday, explained why the three missions given to the Federal Reserve by Congress can be reduced to two major tasks in practice. Central bank officials have long positioned their mission as a dual task, with monetary policy focusing on keeping inflation low and stable and ensuring a continued strong job market, with little emphasis on the third task. Powell told reporters that the third task is real, but in the eyes of central bankers, it is a derivative of the two more well-known goals stipulated by law. He said: "We believe that moderate long-term interest rates are the result of achieving low and stable inflation and maximum employment." For some time, Federal Reserve officials did not believe that the third task required "independent action."1. The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.57%, the S&P 500 down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq down 0.33%. American Express and Caterpillar rose over 2%, leading the Dow higher. The Wind US Tech 7 Index fell 0.66%, with Nvidia down over 2% and Amazon down over 1%. Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Baidu Group up over 11% and ACM Semiconductor up over 9%. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut as expected. The markets positive reaction to the policy shift provided support for U.S. stocks, but the divergent performance of technology stocks curbed overall gains. 2. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 4.99 basis points to 3.545%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 6.40 basis points to 3.533%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 6.77 basis points to 3.652%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 6.12 basis points to 4.089%, and the 30-year Treasury yield up 3.86 basis points to 4.690%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that inflation remains high and stated that future rate cuts will be data-dependent, prompting the market to reassess tightening risks. 3. International precious metals futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% to $3,694.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.15% to $41.99 per ounce. 4. International oil prices fell slightly, with the main US crude oil contract closing down 0.85% at $63.97 per barrel; the main Brent crude oil contract fell 0.82% to $67.91 per barrel. 5. Most base metals prices in London fell, with LME zinc down 1.64% to $2,943 per ton, LME copper down 1.51% to $9,974 per ton, LME tin down 1.41% to $34,390 per ton, LME aluminum down 1.01% to $2,689.50 per ton, LME lead down 0.25% to $2,005 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.11% to $15,445 per ton. Expectations of loose monetary policy pushed the US dollar index to a yearly low, providing support for dollar-denominated base metals from a cost perspective.On September 18, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points overnight.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: To consolidate as a doji near the YTD highs near 125.70 looms

Larissa Barlow

Apr 13, 2022 10:03

  • Despite its strong association with US Treasury yields, the USD/JPY trades in a range of 125.30 to 70.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY exchange price: Although the bias remains upward, a doji near the year-to-date highs might pave the way for lower prices.

 

As the Asian Pacific day begins, USD/JPY is practically flat, up 0.05 percent, but still short of the YTD highs near 125.77, as Tuesday's price action formed a doji, implying indecision. The USD/JPY is now trading at 125.48.

 

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY hovered above 125.45 but fell rapidly on the release of mixed US inflation readings, albeit hotter than expected; the numbers were in line with forecasts.

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Price

The USD/JPY is now trending upward, as indicated by the daily chart. A doji near the YTD highs, on the other hand, may pave the way for a correction down.

 

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY 1-hour chart indicates the pair has established a double top, but the pair may stabilize in the 125.30-77 range after breaking over 125.35.

 

The initial upward resistance for the USD/JPY would be 125.56. A break of the latter would reveal the convergence of the YTD high and the R1 daily pivot point near 125.77-80. Once cleared, 126.00 would be the next line of defense for JPY bulls.

 

On the other hand, the initial level of support for the USD/JPY would be the confluence of the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) and the daily pivot at 125.28-30. A strong break would pave the way to the S1 daily pivot level of 124.81, followed by the 100-hour SMA level of 124.64.

 

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