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On September 17th, Goldman Sachs stated that gasoline prices are poised for further increases as tight supply conditions spread in the global fuel market. The bank has adjusted its trading strategy, shifting its focus from diesel to this widely used vehicle fuel. Analysts, including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven, noted in a report: "The key reason behind this new recommendation is that refiners are shifting production from gasoline to diesel, leading to a rapid tightening of the gasoline market supply." In a report dated September 16th, analysts stated that while diesel prices may still rise further, gasoline currently offers "greater upside potential" due to factors such as more resilient demand and relative inventory changes. Therefore, the bank closed out previous positions on different diesel contract spreads (i.e., time spreads) and recommended establishing long positions in European gasoline targeting mid-2027.On September 17th, according to the Financial Times, Emulate, a UK-based AI startup founded just one month ago by former DeepMind researchers, is launching a new funding round worth hundreds of millions of dollars at a post-money valuation of nearly $4 billion. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the company is in advanced talks with potential investors, planning to raise up to $700 million, which would bring its valuation to $3.7 billion upon completion. The sources also stated that this massive funding round will be jointly led by prominent UK venture capital firm Index Ventures and Silicon Valley-based Lightspeed Venture Partners.According to the Financial Times, Emulate, a British startup founded by former DeepMind researchers, is raising hundreds of millions of dollars in a new funding round just one month after its founding, with a valuation of nearly $4 billion.On September 17th, Robert Sorkin, chief U.S. economist at PGIM, stated that the latest Federal Reserve meeting signaled that the Fed could implement three rate hikes, or even more if necessary, with just a slight push. This rate hike was hawkish, signaling another rate hike this year. Of the 18 Fed officials who submitted forecasts, eight expect three rate hikes in this cycle by the end of 2027. In a report, Sorkin noted that Fed Chairman Warshs mention of the Fed "withdrawing some easing measures" suggested that he and other participants viewed Wednesdays action as merely a small step towards tightening financial conditions, implying further action is possible. Sorkin added that the risk of further Fed rate hikes remains high if inflation continues to be high.On September 17th, Futures News reported that Zhang Guoqing, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, stated in his concluding remarks that it is essential to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinpings important instructions and the requirements of Premier Li Qiangs speech, and to earnestly enhance the sense of urgency, responsibility, and mission in developing advanced manufacturing. He emphasized the need to focus on key areas and crucial aspects, deeply implement the high-quality development action plan for key industrial chains, vigorously develop next-generation intelligent manufacturing, accelerate the upgrading and integrated development of the industrial system, and solidly promote the implementation of various tasks. He also stressed the importance of better leveraging the role of market mechanisms, accelerating the construction of a high-quality standard system, continuously rectifying disorderly and irrational competition, actively helping enterprises solve practical difficulties, and striving to create a favorable ecosystem for the development of advanced manufacturing.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: To consolidate as a doji near the YTD highs near 125.70 looms

Larissa Barlow

Apr 13, 2022 10:03

  • Despite its strong association with US Treasury yields, the USD/JPY trades in a range of 125.30 to 70.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY exchange price: Although the bias remains upward, a doji near the year-to-date highs might pave the way for lower prices.

 

As the Asian Pacific day begins, USD/JPY is practically flat, up 0.05 percent, but still short of the YTD highs near 125.77, as Tuesday's price action formed a doji, implying indecision. The USD/JPY is now trading at 125.48.

 

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY hovered above 125.45 but fell rapidly on the release of mixed US inflation readings, albeit hotter than expected; the numbers were in line with forecasts.

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Price

The USD/JPY is now trending upward, as indicated by the daily chart. A doji near the YTD highs, on the other hand, may pave the way for a correction down.

 

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY 1-hour chart indicates the pair has established a double top, but the pair may stabilize in the 125.30-77 range after breaking over 125.35.

 

The initial upward resistance for the USD/JPY would be 125.56. A break of the latter would reveal the convergence of the YTD high and the R1 daily pivot point near 125.77-80. Once cleared, 126.00 would be the next line of defense for JPY bulls.

 

On the other hand, the initial level of support for the USD/JPY would be the confluence of the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) and the daily pivot at 125.28-30. A strong break would pave the way to the S1 daily pivot level of 124.81, followed by the 100-hour SMA level of 124.64.

 

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