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Japans core machinery orders month-on-month rate in July was -4.6%, in line with expectations of -1.70% and the previous value of 3.00%.Japans core machinery orders in July were 4.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations of 5.4% and the previous value of 7.60%.On September 18, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, in response to questions about the central banks statutory requirement to achieve "moderate long-term interest rates" at a press conference following the interest rate decision on Wednesday, explained why the three missions given to the Federal Reserve by Congress can be reduced to two major tasks in practice. Central bank officials have long positioned their mission as a dual task, with monetary policy focusing on keeping inflation low and stable and ensuring a continued strong job market, with little emphasis on the third task. Powell told reporters that the third task is real, but in the eyes of central bankers, it is a derivative of the two more well-known goals stipulated by law. He said: "We believe that moderate long-term interest rates are the result of achieving low and stable inflation and maximum employment." For some time, Federal Reserve officials did not believe that the third task required "independent action."1. The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.57%, the S&P 500 down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq down 0.33%. American Express and Caterpillar rose over 2%, leading the Dow higher. The Wind US Tech 7 Index fell 0.66%, with Nvidia down over 2% and Amazon down over 1%. Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Baidu Group up over 11% and ACM Semiconductor up over 9%. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut as expected. The markets positive reaction to the policy shift provided support for U.S. stocks, but the divergent performance of technology stocks curbed overall gains. 2. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 4.99 basis points to 3.545%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 6.40 basis points to 3.533%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 6.77 basis points to 3.652%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 6.12 basis points to 4.089%, and the 30-year Treasury yield up 3.86 basis points to 4.690%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that inflation remains high and stated that future rate cuts will be data-dependent, prompting the market to reassess tightening risks. 3. International precious metals futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% to $3,694.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.15% to $41.99 per ounce. 4. International oil prices fell slightly, with the main US crude oil contract closing down 0.85% at $63.97 per barrel; the main Brent crude oil contract fell 0.82% to $67.91 per barrel. 5. Most base metals prices in London fell, with LME zinc down 1.64% to $2,943 per ton, LME copper down 1.51% to $9,974 per ton, LME tin down 1.41% to $34,390 per ton, LME aluminum down 1.01% to $2,689.50 per ton, LME lead down 0.25% to $2,005 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.11% to $15,445 per ton. Expectations of loose monetary policy pushed the US dollar index to a yearly low, providing support for dollar-denominated base metals from a cost perspective.On September 18, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points overnight.

USD/CHF has bottomed out and rebounded above the 0.93 mark, but it will continue to rise in the future

Oct 26, 2021 11:02

On Tuesday (October 12), the US dollar against the Swiss franc attracted some low-level buying near 0.9255 and rose to near 0.93 as the US dollar rebounded vigorously.


The strong rebound of U.S. stock index futures weakened the safe-haven Swiss franc and was seen as an important factor in promoting the exchange rate of the dollar against the Swiss franc. In addition, the shadow of the Federal Reserve’s reduction in debt purchases in November has lingered. Drive the exchange rate to strengthen rapidly.

At the same time, the weak tone surrounding US Treasury yields failed to affect the positive trend of the dollar.

Although the overall performance of non-agricultural employment data last Friday was weak, investors still believe that the Fed will still start to reduce bond purchases before the end of 2021. Fearing that the recent surge in energy prices will trigger inflation, the market is also beginning to digest the possibility of interest rate hikes in 2022.

Therefore, the focus of the market now turns to the US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday, followed by the FOMC meeting minutes. In addition, the monthly retail sales data in the United States to be announced on Friday will affect the dollar price dynamics and provide a new direction for the exchange rate of the dollar against the Swiss franc.

At the same time, traders may look for clues from the JOLTS job vacancy data released on Tuesday to provide some impetus to the North American market in early trading. This, coupled with the scheduled speech of Fed Vice Chairman Clarida and broader market risk sentiment, may bring short-term trading opportunities for the US dollar against the Swiss franc.

In addition, the IMF’s "World Economic Outlook" lowered the global growth rate forecast for 2021 from 6.0% in July to 5.9%, and maintained the growth rate forecast for 2022 at 4.9%, showing that the world economy in the next few months will have Deteriorating trend.

"However, overall minor adjustments have concealed substantial downward revisions in some countries," the IMF wrote in the report. "Due to the worsening of the epidemic situation, the prospects of low-income developing countries have dimmed a lot. This reduction also has Reflecting that the near-term prospects of the group of economies have become more difficult, partly due to supply chain disruptions."

Given the uncertainty caused by the virus and the delay in the recovery of the supply chain, the safe-haven dollar will also play an increasingly important role, which will have a profound impact on future exchange rate trends.

From a technical point of view, the currency pair has been oscillating within a familiar narrow trading range for the past week or so. This forms a rectangle on the short-term chart, indicating that traders are hesitant about the short-term trajectory of USD/CHF. This, in turn, proves to be more cautious before making big bets.

Judging from the current overall situation, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is still on the upside.

The upper resistance pays attention to 0.9333, 0.9369, 0.9400, and the lower support pays attention to 0.9276, 0.9230, 0.9208.

(Daily chart of USD/CHF)

GMT+8 22:28, USD/CHF reported 0.9303.