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USD/CHF has bottomed out and rebounded above the 0.93 mark, but it will continue to rise in the future

Oct 26, 2021 11:02

On Tuesday (October 12), the US dollar against the Swiss franc attracted some low-level buying near 0.9255 and rose to near 0.93 as the US dollar rebounded vigorously.


The strong rebound of U.S. stock index futures weakened the safe-haven Swiss franc and was seen as an important factor in promoting the exchange rate of the dollar against the Swiss franc. In addition, the shadow of the Federal Reserve’s reduction in debt purchases in November has lingered. Drive the exchange rate to strengthen rapidly.

At the same time, the weak tone surrounding US Treasury yields failed to affect the positive trend of the dollar.

Although the overall performance of non-agricultural employment data last Friday was weak, investors still believe that the Fed will still start to reduce bond purchases before the end of 2021. Fearing that the recent surge in energy prices will trigger inflation, the market is also beginning to digest the possibility of interest rate hikes in 2022.

Therefore, the focus of the market now turns to the US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday, followed by the FOMC meeting minutes. In addition, the monthly retail sales data in the United States to be announced on Friday will affect the dollar price dynamics and provide a new direction for the exchange rate of the dollar against the Swiss franc.

At the same time, traders may look for clues from the JOLTS job vacancy data released on Tuesday to provide some impetus to the North American market in early trading. This, coupled with the scheduled speech of Fed Vice Chairman Clarida and broader market risk sentiment, may bring short-term trading opportunities for the US dollar against the Swiss franc.

In addition, the IMF’s "World Economic Outlook" lowered the global growth rate forecast for 2021 from 6.0% in July to 5.9%, and maintained the growth rate forecast for 2022 at 4.9%, showing that the world economy in the next few months will have Deteriorating trend.

"However, overall minor adjustments have concealed substantial downward revisions in some countries," the IMF wrote in the report. "Due to the worsening of the epidemic situation, the prospects of low-income developing countries have dimmed a lot. This reduction also has Reflecting that the near-term prospects of the group of economies have become more difficult, partly due to supply chain disruptions."

Given the uncertainty caused by the virus and the delay in the recovery of the supply chain, the safe-haven dollar will also play an increasingly important role, which will have a profound impact on future exchange rate trends.

From a technical point of view, the currency pair has been oscillating within a familiar narrow trading range for the past week or so. This forms a rectangle on the short-term chart, indicating that traders are hesitant about the short-term trajectory of USD/CHF. This, in turn, proves to be more cautious before making big bets.

Judging from the current overall situation, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is still on the upside.

The upper resistance pays attention to 0.9333, 0.9369, 0.9400, and the lower support pays attention to 0.9276, 0.9230, 0.9208.

(Daily chart of USD/CHF)

GMT+8 22:28, USD/CHF reported 0.9303.

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