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Qatari authorities stated that a fire broke out on an oil tanker in Port Al Wakrah, and the civil defense department has responded, with no casualties reported.Pakistans Defense Minister: Any aggression against signatories of the Joint Defense Agreement will provoke a collective response from Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan.On September 9th, JPMorgan Chase became the latest institution to predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its fourth interest rate hike of the current cycle at the end of September. JPMorgans Chief Economist for Australia, Ben Jarman, stated that recent hawkish comments from senior RBA officials "indicate a shift in stance." He pointed out that the RBA seems concerned about high oil prices, surging AI investment, and the potential for economic supply. These factors will remain a focus at the end of the month. JPMorgan expects a 25 basis point rate hike to 4.60% on September 29th. 1. According to Aladdin (ALD) statistics, in August, Chinas alumina production capacity using imported bauxite reached 78.96 million tons, accounting for 81.3% of the total, a record high. Of the 42 alumina producers nationwide, only 5 rely entirely on domestically produced ore. 2. Preliminary data from shipping data tracking agency Kpler shows that as of 10:00 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, 5 out of 6 ships entered the Strait of Hormuz, and 1 exited. These included one Panamax vessel and one medium-sized oil tanker. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, 25 commodity carriers passed through another important Middle Eastern maritime chokepoint—the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—with 11 entering and 14 exiting. 3. According to Mysteel, the auction price of coking coal in the Gu County market of Linfen rose on September 9th. Low-sulfur prime coking coal (A≤9, S≤0.5, G≥80) was listed at 0.5 million tons, with a starting price of 2550 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2560 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous transaction price on September 2nd. All prices are ex-factory cash prices including tax. 4. According to data released by Thai Customs, in July 2026, Thailands natural rubber exports (including latex, smoked sheet rubber, standard rubber, mixed rubber, compound rubber, and other rubbers) reached approximately 367,800 tons, an increase of 4.85% month-on-month and 10.24% year-on-year. JLC believes that there is expected to be an increase in Thai natural rubber exports in August, but the increase will be relatively narrow. 5. According to data from Zhaogang.com, national building material output was 4.29 million tons, a decrease of 85,700 tons from the previous week; factory inventory was 4.9252 million tons, an increase of 74,700 tons from the previous week; social inventory was 6.0018 million tons, a decrease of 198,500 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 10.927 million tons, a decrease of 123,800 tons from the previous week; and apparent demand was 4.4138 million tons, a decrease of 23,600 tons from the previous week. 6. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that, year-on-year, the national CPI rose by 0.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the expansion of energy price increases. Energy price increases expanded from 0.6% in the previous month to 4.1% this month, contributing approximately 0.28 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase, an increase of approximately 0.24 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, gasoline prices rose by 9.3%, an increase of 8.3 percentage points. 7. A Reuters poll released its forecast for U.S. soybean production in the USDAs September supply and demand report. Analysts on average expect U.S. soybean production for 2026/27 to be 4.501 billion bushels, with an estimate range of 4.393-4.572 billion bushels. The USDAs August forecast was 4.519 billion bushels. 8. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in August, influenced by factors such as changes in international market prices and seasonal increases in food prices, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decrease in the previous month, and the year-on-year increase rebounded to 0.8%; the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.0% year-on-year.September 9th - The latest data from the U.S. Department of Defenses Defense Casualty Analysis System (DSAS) shows that as of September 8th, the total number of U.S. military casualties in the conflict with Iran has reached 838, including 18 deaths and 820 injuries. The websites casualty statistics show that since the resumption of the conflict in Iran in July, the U.S. military has suffered 4 deaths and 403 injuries. This database added a "Overseas Operations" tracking category in July, separately tracking U.S. military casualties since July 7th. According to a previous report by The Washington Post, the U.S. Department of Defense explained that because Operation Epic Fury has ended, the U.S. military decided to include the casualties from the new round of the conflict with Iran since July in the "Overseas Operations" category.

USD/CHF Steady at 1.0020 as DXY Pauses, Powell and US Retail Sales Take Center Stage

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 10:46

The USD/CHF pair is bouncing within a small range between 1.0020 and 1.0030 in early Tokyo, as the US dollar index (DXY) is not gaining much traction due to Monday's light economic calendar. Although broad-based fundamentals continue to favor the dollar bulls, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to raise interest rates by another significant number in June in an effort to limit the inflation issue.

 

Last week, Fed's Powell's interview with the national radio show Marketplace revealed the ongoing conversations among Fed policymakers regarding anticipated rate hikes in monetary policies. Fed Powell indicated that the Fed could declare two additional rate hikes in the next two consecutive monetary policy sessions in order to tame the soaring inflation.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) is poised between 104.46 and 104.60 after reaching a new 19-year high of 105.00 on Friday. The DXY appreciates the broader gains but requires further triggers to maintain strong. In the future, two significant events on Tuesday will keep investors occupied. First will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech, which will likely influence monetary policy action in June. The second significant event is the monthly US Retail Sales report, which is anticipated to increase by 0.7% from the previous reading of 0.5%.

 

In terms of the Swiss franc, Friday's Industrial Production data will be the focal point. The catalyst reached 7.3% the previous time. A greater-than-anticipated number will strengthen the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar. 

USD/CHF

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