EUR/USD
1.15873
0.017%
Gold
4433.55
-0.552%
Oil
84.898
2.642%
USD/JPY
159.826
-0.156%
GBP/USD
1.35432
0.040%
GBP/JPY
216.461
-0.107%
Real-time News
Bank of England Governor Bailey warned the G20 that new artificial intelligence models pose a threat to stability, and that measures to ensure the safe development and deployment of AI are a top priority.August 31 – As of August 30, the Xinjiang Border Inspection Station had inspected over 3.53 million inbound and outbound passengers this year, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, reaching this milestone 54 days earlier than last year. Among them, 1.607 million were foreigners, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, with 647,000 foreigners entering the country enjoying visa-free or temporary entry permit policies, accounting for 79% of the total number of foreign inbound passengers.August 31 – Data from ship tracking and trade sources indicates that Asian diesel exports to Africa are expected to reach a new high in at least four and a half years in August. This follows a decline in Middle Eastern diesel shipments, prompting African buyers to seek alternative supply sources. Data from Kpler, Vortexa, and a trade source shows that Asia, including India, will export 1.8 million to 2 million tons of diesel to Africa this month, equivalent to 13.4 million to 14.9 million barrels. Meanwhile, data from LSEG, Kpler, and the aforementioned trade source shows that Middle Eastern diesel exports to Africa fell to 600,000 to 800,000 tons in August, the lowest level in nearly nine years, due to ongoing shipping risks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler, approximately 50% of Africas diesel imports last year came from the Middle East, with 40% originating from Saudi Arabia. Multiple trade sources indicated that declining operating rates at some of Saudi Aramcos refineries, including those in Jizan, have further limited Saudi diesel exports. According to Kpler data, diesel shipments from the Jizan refinery to Africa fell to zero in August, compared to 163,000 tons in July.German Chancellor Merz: Our country has enormous potential, and we must make full use of that potential.1. Key Market Trends: Today, most domestic futures contracts rose, with the energy and chemical and coal chains becoming the absolute core of the market. The surge in crude oil futures triggered bullish sentiment in downstream chemical products, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rising over 8%, crude oil over 7%, coking coal over 6%, and methanol, propylene, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and ethylene glycol experiencing violent surges, hitting their daily limit. 2. Guangfa Futures View: The main trading logic for August methanol futures continued to be the Middle East situation, with repeated geopolitical risks providing a floor for the market. Although the fading geopolitical premium may lead to a pullback after a surge, the downside is limited by low inventory levels and plant maintenance. It is expected that in September, methanol prices will be driven by improved downstream demand during the traditional "Golden September" period and a significant reduction in imports, widening the market gap and potentially leading to a volatile but slightly upward trend. 3. Foshan Financial Holdings Futures View: Crude oil experienced wide fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances, coal strengthened, and while cost support for ethylene glycol remains, it is unstable. Current supply is moderately increasing while demand recovery is limited, but inventories at major ports in East China continue to decline significantly, and recent arrivals are expected to remain low. Overall, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with low inventories providing support for prices. 4. Core Industry Data: According to CCF, ethylene glycol port inventories in some major ports in East China recently decreased significantly by 83,000 tons week-on-week; according to Longzhong Information, methanol enterprise inventories decreased by 14,000 tons during the same period, while port and social inventories accumulated slightly. 5. Everbright Futures View: The main logic of the current market is: renewed restrictions on cross-strait navigation, the resumption of the US-Iran conflict, or the substantial disruption of Russian oil exports, which may amplify the elasticity of oil prices under a low inventory environment. Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs firmly hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28th has increased the probability of a Fed rate hike, creating a negative feedback loop of "oil price—inflation—interest rate," with a strong dollar and high real interest rates suppressing speculative bulls. However, the financial attributes of oil prices are currently weakening, with commodity attributes providing a floor and geopolitical attributes determining the direction. Based on the projected trajectory of oil prices in September, the combination of low inventories and expectations of a delayed supply recovery may continue to support high-level price fluctuations. At the same time, attention should be paid to the varying strengths of the three major oil types, reflecting the structural contradictions in global market pricing, which may result in an overall performance of SC > WTI > Brent oil prices. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data from Everbright Futures, GF Futures, etc., and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice.)
