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On June 4th, Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that reports indicate Israel and Lebanon, under US guidance, have reached a framework agreement for a ceasefire, with full-scale talks scheduled to resume the week of June 22nd. However, this is contingent on Hezbollahs complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market will likely absorb this headline, largely treating it as already priced in. This Lebanese ceasefire plan, framed by Hezbollahs adherence to the agreement and the establishment of a "pilot zone," is essentially a document aimed at advancing the process, not a final solution. The condition attached to the plan—Hezbollahs complete ceasefire and withdrawal from the Litani River region—is precisely the crux of the failures that led to previous arrangements. The market will note that the next round of substantive negotiations will not take place until the week of June 22nd, three weeks from now. If there is any definite takeaway, it is that this announcement confirms the Lebanese front remains a dynamic and unpredictable factor, rather than a settled situation. At the same time, it does not offer any substantial help in resolving the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, or in alleviating the broader US-Iran conflict that is currently driving up oil prices.U.S. State Department: All parties condemn Irans attacks on countries in the region.On June 4th, US President Trump told reporters at the White House on the 3rd that negotiations between the US and Iran were progressing well and an agreement could be reached by the end of the week. Trump said, "Ive heard the negotiations themselves are going very well, actually quite well… If an agreement is reached, it will likely be announced this weekend." When asked whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran would still be in effect after Irans latest attack on Kuwait, Trump said, "Everything happens for a reason," adding that the US military had launched a fairly heavy attack on Iran two nights ago, "so some things happen for a reason, and those reasons usually make some sense." He also said that Irans actions were "not a big deal," and that "we have the situation under control and have quickly nipped it in the bud."According to The Information, Meta Platforms (META.O) plans to charge up to $200 per month for its planned "Hatch" AI agent.Broadcom CEO: The company plans to deliver 10 gigawatts of computing power in 2027, and expects to achieve even greater computing power growth in 2028.

USD/CHF Steady at 1.0020 as DXY Pauses, Powell and US Retail Sales Take Center Stage

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 10:46

The USD/CHF pair is bouncing within a small range between 1.0020 and 1.0030 in early Tokyo, as the US dollar index (DXY) is not gaining much traction due to Monday's light economic calendar. Although broad-based fundamentals continue to favor the dollar bulls, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to raise interest rates by another significant number in June in an effort to limit the inflation issue.

 

Last week, Fed's Powell's interview with the national radio show Marketplace revealed the ongoing conversations among Fed policymakers regarding anticipated rate hikes in monetary policies. Fed Powell indicated that the Fed could declare two additional rate hikes in the next two consecutive monetary policy sessions in order to tame the soaring inflation.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) is poised between 104.46 and 104.60 after reaching a new 19-year high of 105.00 on Friday. The DXY appreciates the broader gains but requires further triggers to maintain strong. In the future, two significant events on Tuesday will keep investors occupied. First will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech, which will likely influence monetary policy action in June. The second significant event is the monthly US Retail Sales report, which is anticipated to increase by 0.7% from the previous reading of 0.5%.

 

In terms of the Swiss franc, Friday's Industrial Production data will be the focal point. The catalyst reached 7.3% the previous time. A greater-than-anticipated number will strengthen the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar. 

USD/CHF

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