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On August 21st, Bank of America Securities issued a report stating that Pop Marts (09992.HK) half-year results fell short of expectations. The bank lowered its adjusted earnings per share forecasts for 2026/2027 by 22%/24%, and its target price by 4% from HK$160 to HK$153. Bank of America forecasts adjusted net profit of RMB10.65 billion for fiscal year 2026, implying a 36% year-on-year decline in the second half. The current price represents a forward P/E ratio of approximately 13 times for 2026, close to historical lows, and the compound annual growth rate of adjusted net profit from 2025 to 2028 is only in the low single digits, making the valuation seem reasonable. Therefore, the bank maintains a "neutral" rating and believes that the downside potential for the share price is limited. Key supporting factors include: 1) a share buyback plan of RMB2 billion to RMB5 billion over the next six months (equivalent to 1.1% to 2.8% of market capitalization); 2) a reduced impact of exchange rate losses in the second half of the year (exchange rate losses in the first half were approximately RMB700 million); and 3) the increase in shareholding by prominent investor Duan Yongping to 7.7%, which may provide support for market sentiment. Overall, the bank believes that the risk-reward ratio is roughly balanced between the current growth pains and the long-term prospects.The Indonesian rupiah rose to 17,690 against the US dollar, its highest level since mid-June.August 21st - According to the Hainan Provincial Meteorological Department, a tropical depression in the South China Sea is expected to linger over the northern Beibu Gulf and Qiongzhou Strait for an extended period over the next three days, gradually intensifying into a tropical storm. From August 22nd to 24th, affected by this storm, the northwestern half of Hainan Island will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized areas experiencing extremely heavy rain, while other areas will see moderate to heavy rain, with localized areas experiencing torrential rain. From the 22nd to the 24th, most sea areas of Hainan Province will experience gusts of 8-9 on the Beaufort scale, with gusts reaching 9-10 in the northern Beibu Gulf. Prolonged closures of shipping in the Qiongzhou Strait are possible.On August 21st, the A50 index surged in early trading on Friday, and major A-share indices also rebounded collectively, with AI-related sectors such as CPO and liquid cooling showing significant strength. Meanwhile, the South Korean stock index reversed its losses and rose sharply. The Japanese stock market also saw its losses narrow significantly. Three major positive factors emerged from overseas markets. First, US Treasury yields, which had been a concern for the market, initially fell across the board after the Asian markets opened, and the change in expectations in the US Treasury market opened Pandoras box for a weak dollar, which is beneficial for equity valuations. Second, the Korea Exchange activated the Sidecar mechanism, suspending programmatic selling on KOSDAQ. Finally, the storage industry also received a major boost. Micron Technology stated that artificial intelligence has fundamentally changed the cyclical nature of the storage industry, which has historically been trapped in cycles of boom and bust.On August 21, Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.s Huaxia Branch filed for bankruptcy liquidation against Evergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., citing the companys inability to repay its debts and insufficient assets to cover all liabilities. The Guangzhou Intermediate Peoples Court of Guangdong Province, after review, determined that the application met the requirements of Article 2, Paragraph 1 of the "Enterprise Bankruptcy Law of the Peoples Republic of China" and ruled on August 21, 2026, to accept the bankruptcy liquidation application filed by Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.s Huaxia Branch against Evergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd.

USD/CHF Steady at 1.0020 as DXY Pauses, Powell and US Retail Sales Take Center Stage

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 10:46

The USD/CHF pair is bouncing within a small range between 1.0020 and 1.0030 in early Tokyo, as the US dollar index (DXY) is not gaining much traction due to Monday's light economic calendar. Although broad-based fundamentals continue to favor the dollar bulls, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to raise interest rates by another significant number in June in an effort to limit the inflation issue.

 

Last week, Fed's Powell's interview with the national radio show Marketplace revealed the ongoing conversations among Fed policymakers regarding anticipated rate hikes in monetary policies. Fed Powell indicated that the Fed could declare two additional rate hikes in the next two consecutive monetary policy sessions in order to tame the soaring inflation.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) is poised between 104.46 and 104.60 after reaching a new 19-year high of 105.00 on Friday. The DXY appreciates the broader gains but requires further triggers to maintain strong. In the future, two significant events on Tuesday will keep investors occupied. First will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech, which will likely influence monetary policy action in June. The second significant event is the monthly US Retail Sales report, which is anticipated to increase by 0.7% from the previous reading of 0.5%.

 

In terms of the Swiss franc, Friday's Industrial Production data will be the focal point. The catalyst reached 7.3% the previous time. A greater-than-anticipated number will strengthen the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar. 

USD/CHF

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