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On September 10th, Eburys Chief FX Strategist, Roman Zyrulke, stated that the impact of the US Treasurys increased intervention on the US dollar may be more lasting than its effect on yields themselves. The initial intention of repurchase operations was not to solve the deficit problem; however, the markets interpretation of why the Treasury felt the need to intervene and resort to unconventional means has itself become a source of risk premium. This deviates from the traditional economic logic that rising yields typically support the domestic currency exchange rate by attracting capital inflows. Conversely, despite the rising yields, the dollar remains weak because investors increasingly see it as a sign of fiscal and institutional pressure rather than a strong economic performance.Israel Defense Forces: Yesterday, the Israel Defense Forces and the Israel Security Service carried out strikes in three areas of the Gaza Strip, dismantling three Hamas weapons storage facilities.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: He will meet with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss how to enhance resilience, support the people, and ensure that Ukraine has the capabilities it needs to defend itself.Ukrainian President Zelensky: I have arrived in Canada and plan to hold important meetings and sign agreements that will shape future cooperation between the two countries and consolidate and deepen the strategic level of bilateral relations.On September 10th, Jonathan Pryor, co-head of trading and head of private markets at Marex FX, warned in a report that the European Central Bank (ECB) could be "put on the defensive" after its interest rate decision on Thursday. He said, "If the ECB misjudges the situation and assumes this rate hike will be a one-off move, and ends up lagging behind other G10 central banks with higher rates, it could have long-term consequences for Lagarde and the ECBs reputation." He added, "A more complex challenge for the ECB is coordinating monetary policy while also addressing the volatile bond spreads between sovereign nations, a challenge that is rarely discussed." Pryor noted, "Any statement concerning the bond market will be crucial, as this is typically a topic the ECB is reluctant to address, but it will inevitably become part of the challenges it faces in the coming months."

USD/CHF Steady at 1.0020 as DXY Pauses, Powell and US Retail Sales Take Center Stage

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 10:46

The USD/CHF pair is bouncing within a small range between 1.0020 and 1.0030 in early Tokyo, as the US dollar index (DXY) is not gaining much traction due to Monday's light economic calendar. Although broad-based fundamentals continue to favor the dollar bulls, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to raise interest rates by another significant number in June in an effort to limit the inflation issue.

 

Last week, Fed's Powell's interview with the national radio show Marketplace revealed the ongoing conversations among Fed policymakers regarding anticipated rate hikes in monetary policies. Fed Powell indicated that the Fed could declare two additional rate hikes in the next two consecutive monetary policy sessions in order to tame the soaring inflation.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) is poised between 104.46 and 104.60 after reaching a new 19-year high of 105.00 on Friday. The DXY appreciates the broader gains but requires further triggers to maintain strong. In the future, two significant events on Tuesday will keep investors occupied. First will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech, which will likely influence monetary policy action in June. The second significant event is the monthly US Retail Sales report, which is anticipated to increase by 0.7% from the previous reading of 0.5%.

 

In terms of the Swiss franc, Friday's Industrial Production data will be the focal point. The catalyst reached 7.3% the previous time. A greater-than-anticipated number will strengthen the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar. 

USD/CHF

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