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OpenAI plans to begin deploying Jalapeno chips in its computing infrastructure by the end of 2026.August 25th - While Nvidias upcoming earnings report and Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs speech at the Jackson Hole symposium are the main events investors are watching this week, traders in the equity derivatives market have already begun preparing for a potential increase in volatility around the time of the US midterm elections in November. Volatility traders closely monitoring the futures market linked to the VIX volatility index have noted signs of increased demand for hedging S&P 500 volatility before and after the election. The September-expiring VIX futures contract is currently trading around 17.4, but the October contract has risen to 19, and the November contract has further increased to 19.7. Matthew Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, stated, "With the US election approaching, youre entering a window where the election will impact the VIX. You can already see this spiking in the term structure of the VIX futures." A study by analysts at the Chicago Board Options Exchange Global Markets shows that since 1945, 80% of midterm election years have seen actual volatility higher than the previous year, with an average increase of 3.5 volatility points. In years when both the White House and Congress are controlled by the same party, actual volatility increases by an average of 6 volatility points.August 25th - According to the Financial Times, citing sources familiar with the matter, Trump administration officials last week requested Kyiv not to use long-range missiles and drones to attack Moscow, St. Petersburg, and northern Russia during Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, while a U.S. plane carrying senior officials was en route to the Russian capital. The sources said Ukraine agreed to this request. Today, a U.S. Air Force C-17 transport plane landed in Moscow. Russia previously stated it was unaware of the specific circumstances of the planes arrival; the Kremlin also stated that no meetings with U.S. government representatives were scheduled for this week.U.S. new home sales fell to their lowest level in six months in July, indicating that even with builders lowering prices and offering incentives, high mortgage rates are still suppressing homebuying demand. According to data released by the government on Tuesday, pending sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. fell 10.5% in July to an annualized rate of 607,000 units. Economists median forecast was 620,000 units. The median price of new homes fell 0.9% year-over-year to $393,800. New home sales have declined in three of the past four months, further indicating that the housing market is under pressure from both high financing costs and high home prices. While builders have achieved some success in boosting demand through free upgrades, subsidized mortgage rates, and price reductions, the entry-level housing market remains constrained by insufficient affordability.On August 25th, US President Trump posted: "I have just been informed by the US Navy that all mines in international waters of the Strait of Hormuz have been cleared and/or detonated. The United States has notified Iran that any ships or vessels laying new mines will be systematically destroyed immediately. We monitor every inch of the Strait through the US Space Force, as well as Pickaxe Mountain and three other destroyed nuclear facilities. We have a zero-tolerance policy for mine-laying, and that policy is in full effect."

USD/CHF Steady at 1.0020 as DXY Pauses, Powell and US Retail Sales Take Center Stage

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 10:46

The USD/CHF pair is bouncing within a small range between 1.0020 and 1.0030 in early Tokyo, as the US dollar index (DXY) is not gaining much traction due to Monday's light economic calendar. Although broad-based fundamentals continue to favor the dollar bulls, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to raise interest rates by another significant number in June in an effort to limit the inflation issue.

 

Last week, Fed's Powell's interview with the national radio show Marketplace revealed the ongoing conversations among Fed policymakers regarding anticipated rate hikes in monetary policies. Fed Powell indicated that the Fed could declare two additional rate hikes in the next two consecutive monetary policy sessions in order to tame the soaring inflation.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) is poised between 104.46 and 104.60 after reaching a new 19-year high of 105.00 on Friday. The DXY appreciates the broader gains but requires further triggers to maintain strong. In the future, two significant events on Tuesday will keep investors occupied. First will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech, which will likely influence monetary policy action in June. The second significant event is the monthly US Retail Sales report, which is anticipated to increase by 0.7% from the previous reading of 0.5%.

 

In terms of the Swiss franc, Friday's Industrial Production data will be the focal point. The catalyst reached 7.3% the previous time. A greater-than-anticipated number will strengthen the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar. 

USD/CHF

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