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On March 3, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Lane warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and a continued decline in oil and gas supplies in the region could lead to a "significant spike" in eurozone inflation and a "sharp decline in output." He stated that "in terms of direction, a jump in energy prices would put upward pressure on inflation, especially in the short term," and that this development would have a "negative impact" on economic growth. Lane added that "if it also triggers a repricing of risks in financial markets, the impact would be amplified." Lane cited a scenario analysis released by the ECB in December 2023, which indicated that if the Middle East conflict leads to a continued decline in energy supplies and disruptions to regional economic activity, there would be a significant spike in energy-driven inflation and a sharp decline in output. In that analysis, the ECB assumed that one-third of the oil and gas supplies transported through the Strait of Hormuz would be disrupted. In this scenario, oil prices, then around $80 per barrel, would rise by more than 50% to around $130. Eurozone economic growth would decline by 0.6 percentage points the following year, while inflation would rise by more than 0.8 percentage points.According to the Financial Times, Netflix (NFLX.O) has warned that the deal between Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.O) will result in layoffs.European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane: A protracted war with Iran could lead to a "surge" in inflation.Futures News, March 3rd: Economies.com analysts latest view: Spot gold prices rose during the days trading, having found support at $5300, which provided a technical basis for resuming its upward trend and generated significant positive momentum. With the overbought condition on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resolved, spot gold has room for further gains, especially given the emergence of new positive converging signals, and is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term.March 3 - Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell further to 1.0%, German DAX futures fell 1.0%, and FTSE 100 futures fell 0.2%.

USD/CHF Steady at 1.0020 as DXY Pauses, Powell and US Retail Sales Take Center Stage

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 10:46

The USD/CHF pair is bouncing within a small range between 1.0020 and 1.0030 in early Tokyo, as the US dollar index (DXY) is not gaining much traction due to Monday's light economic calendar. Although broad-based fundamentals continue to favor the dollar bulls, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to raise interest rates by another significant number in June in an effort to limit the inflation issue.

 

Last week, Fed's Powell's interview with the national radio show Marketplace revealed the ongoing conversations among Fed policymakers regarding anticipated rate hikes in monetary policies. Fed Powell indicated that the Fed could declare two additional rate hikes in the next two consecutive monetary policy sessions in order to tame the soaring inflation.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) is poised between 104.46 and 104.60 after reaching a new 19-year high of 105.00 on Friday. The DXY appreciates the broader gains but requires further triggers to maintain strong. In the future, two significant events on Tuesday will keep investors occupied. First will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech, which will likely influence monetary policy action in June. The second significant event is the monthly US Retail Sales report, which is anticipated to increase by 0.7% from the previous reading of 0.5%.

 

In terms of the Swiss franc, Friday's Industrial Production data will be the focal point. The catalyst reached 7.3% the previous time. A greater-than-anticipated number will strengthen the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar. 

USD/CHF

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