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On May 22nd, Abhijit Surya, Senior Economist for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, stated that a series of data this week suggests the Japanese economy has sufficient resilience to support further interest rate hikes. Surya noted that while the global energy crisis will inevitably cause the economy to lose momentum, there are signs that the slowdown may not be very severe. As of mid-May, Japans fuel consumption reserves could cover 206 days, and the rate of inventory depletion has slowed significantly. This suggests that refiners may have made progress in securing non-Middle Eastern supplies. Meanwhile, price pressures are becoming more widespread, with preliminary PMI data indicating that core commodity inflation could approach 8% by the end of 2026. Capital Economics now expects the Bank of Japan to tighten policy more aggressively at a pace of approximately once every four months, raising the policy rate to a terminal level of 2% by the end of 2027.On May 22, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jia-kun held a regular press conference. At the conference, Guo announced that China, as the rotating president of the UN Security Council for May, will host a high-level meeting of the Security Council on May 26, with the theme of "Upholding the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter and Strengthening the International System with the UN at its Core." Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, will travel to New York to chair the meeting. Guo explained that as the rotating president of the UN Security Council for May, Chinas initiative to convene this high-level meeting will focus on the contemporary value of the UN Charter, upholding and implementing its purposes and principles, and strengthening the authority and effectiveness of the UN and its Security Council—issues of widespread international concern. The meeting will be chaired by Foreign Minister Wang Yi and is open to all UN member states. Foreign ministers and high-level representatives from many countries have confirmed their attendance, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres will attend and provide updates. "We hope that all parties will take this meeting as an opportunity to reaffirm the lofty goals established by the Charter, reaffirm their firm commitment to multilateralism, and revitalize the UNs status and role with greater unity and responsibility, thus pooling greater efforts to reform and improve global governance," Guo said.Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski: Details of the US troop deployment are still unclear.May 22 - ING analysts say the market is still looking for signs of progress on a potential US-Iran deal. Despite some optimistic signs, uncertainty remains. This is not the first time a seemingly imminent agreement has ended in a breakdown in negotiations. Therefore, a large portion of the market remains skeptical of the positive signals we are seeing. While Iran has stated that the gap between the demands of both sides has narrowed, the issues of its uranium enrichment activities and its uranium stockpile remain. The US wants to move these stocks out of Iran. Another issue is the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is pushing for a formal toll system in the strait, a move that will face considerable resistance. If implemented, it would set a dangerous precedent for the free passage of ships in this crucial global chokepoint. With the weekend approaching, uncertainty surrounding a US-Iran deal remains, and any new shifts in the wind could lead to significant market price volatility.The chart shows that at 22:00 Beijing time on May 22, there will be large foreign exchange options contracts for the Euro, Canadian Dollar, and Japanese Yen expiring, including 12 contracts with strike prices exceeding 1 billion. Please manage your risks.

USD/CHF Steady at 1.0020 as DXY Pauses, Powell and US Retail Sales Take Center Stage

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 10:46

The USD/CHF pair is bouncing within a small range between 1.0020 and 1.0030 in early Tokyo, as the US dollar index (DXY) is not gaining much traction due to Monday's light economic calendar. Although broad-based fundamentals continue to favor the dollar bulls, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to raise interest rates by another significant number in June in an effort to limit the inflation issue.

 

Last week, Fed's Powell's interview with the national radio show Marketplace revealed the ongoing conversations among Fed policymakers regarding anticipated rate hikes in monetary policies. Fed Powell indicated that the Fed could declare two additional rate hikes in the next two consecutive monetary policy sessions in order to tame the soaring inflation.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) is poised between 104.46 and 104.60 after reaching a new 19-year high of 105.00 on Friday. The DXY appreciates the broader gains but requires further triggers to maintain strong. In the future, two significant events on Tuesday will keep investors occupied. First will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech, which will likely influence monetary policy action in June. The second significant event is the monthly US Retail Sales report, which is anticipated to increase by 0.7% from the previous reading of 0.5%.

 

In terms of the Swiss franc, Friday's Industrial Production data will be the focal point. The catalyst reached 7.3% the previous time. A greater-than-anticipated number will strengthen the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar. 

USD/CHF

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