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September 17th - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, but this decline may overstate the health of the labor market. The U.S. Labor Department said Thursday that initial jobless claims in states fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ending September 12th, compared with economists consensus forecast of 208,000. This unexpected drop likely reflects data fluctuations during the Labor Day holiday last week. Because public holiday dates are not fixed, it is difficult to adjust for seasonal fluctuations in application numbers. The underlying trend suggests that the labor market has now stabilized after experiencing volatility for most of the summer.Saudi state television: Saudi civil defense officials say Houthi rebels launched a drone at Taif, Saudi Arabia.September 17th - The Federal Reserves interest rate hike triggered a stock market sell-off, but the prospect of tighter monetary policy has not deterred market bulls. Mark Heifel, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, stated that his team remains "positioned for further equity gains while preparing for near-term volatility." He said, "If tightening remains moderate, credit spreads remain stable, and profits continue to grow, this rally should be able to expand to more sectors and regions. We recommend diversifying equity exposure while avoiding over-concentration in areas that are particularly sensitive to interest rates or rely on a single return driver."On September 17th, David Rees, an analyst at Schroders, stated in a report that the Bank of England was right to keep interest rates unchanged. He said that while a rate hike in the fall now seems more likely, the economic situation does not warrant one. "The market may be paving the way for an autumn rate hike, especially if other central banks are also tightening policy, but monetary policy should be guided by the fundamentals of the UK economy, not by global developments," he noted. "This is not an economy in dire need of a rate hike." Rees stated that the greater risk lies in fiscal policy, emphasizing that increased spending could push up domestic inflation, thus triggering a rate hike.The VIX fear index fell to a more than one-week low, last down 2.26 points to 15.45.

USD/CHF Steady at 1.0020 as DXY Pauses, Powell and US Retail Sales Take Center Stage

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 10:46

The USD/CHF pair is bouncing within a small range between 1.0020 and 1.0030 in early Tokyo, as the US dollar index (DXY) is not gaining much traction due to Monday's light economic calendar. Although broad-based fundamentals continue to favor the dollar bulls, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to raise interest rates by another significant number in June in an effort to limit the inflation issue.

 

Last week, Fed's Powell's interview with the national radio show Marketplace revealed the ongoing conversations among Fed policymakers regarding anticipated rate hikes in monetary policies. Fed Powell indicated that the Fed could declare two additional rate hikes in the next two consecutive monetary policy sessions in order to tame the soaring inflation.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) is poised between 104.46 and 104.60 after reaching a new 19-year high of 105.00 on Friday. The DXY appreciates the broader gains but requires further triggers to maintain strong. In the future, two significant events on Tuesday will keep investors occupied. First will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech, which will likely influence monetary policy action in June. The second significant event is the monthly US Retail Sales report, which is anticipated to increase by 0.7% from the previous reading of 0.5%.

 

In terms of the Swiss franc, Friday's Industrial Production data will be the focal point. The catalyst reached 7.3% the previous time. A greater-than-anticipated number will strengthen the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar. 

USD/CHF

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