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The Federation of Thai Automobile Manufacturers: Thailands automobile exports fell 1.51% year-on-year in October (compared to a 7.23% increase in September).The Shenzhou-22 spacecraft is scheduled to launch at 12:11. The spacecraft has been powered on, and the rocket is about to enter the pre-launch check.The yield on Japans 30-year government bonds fell 1.5 basis points to 3.305%.On November 25th, Morgan Stanley strategists stated that if the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates amid increasing signs of a slowdown in the US economy, the yen could appreciate by nearly 10% against the dollar in the coming months. Strategists, including Matthew Hornbach, wrote that USD/JPY is currently detached from its fair value, and if this relationship returns, the USD/JPY exchange rate will fall in the first quarter of 2026 as falling US Treasury yields could depress the fair value. They noted that "at the same time, Japans fiscal policy is not particularly expansionary," and expect the yen to face downward pressure again as the US economy recovers in the second half of next year and demand for carry trades picks up. Morgan Stanley projects USD/JPY will fall to around 140 in the first quarter of 2026, before recovering to around 147 by the end of the year.On November 25th, Futures News reported that crude oil prices have been trending weakly recently. The main negative factor stems from the acceptance by Ukraine of the US-proposed peace plan between Russia and Ukraine. The market anticipates that a European countrys successful later negotiations will ease oil supply, thus negatively impacting the oil market from a fundamental perspective. Zhuochuang Information predicts that the Russia-Ukraine peace talks are currently in a crucial stage, with Europe revising the final version of the peace agreement after its participation. Furthermore, with the resumption of some economic data releases, expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve are gradually increasing. These factors have contributed to the continued wide fluctuations in oil prices.

USD/CHF Steady at 1.0020 as DXY Pauses, Powell and US Retail Sales Take Center Stage

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 10:46

The USD/CHF pair is bouncing within a small range between 1.0020 and 1.0030 in early Tokyo, as the US dollar index (DXY) is not gaining much traction due to Monday's light economic calendar. Although broad-based fundamentals continue to favor the dollar bulls, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to raise interest rates by another significant number in June in an effort to limit the inflation issue.

 

Last week, Fed's Powell's interview with the national radio show Marketplace revealed the ongoing conversations among Fed policymakers regarding anticipated rate hikes in monetary policies. Fed Powell indicated that the Fed could declare two additional rate hikes in the next two consecutive monetary policy sessions in order to tame the soaring inflation.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) is poised between 104.46 and 104.60 after reaching a new 19-year high of 105.00 on Friday. The DXY appreciates the broader gains but requires further triggers to maintain strong. In the future, two significant events on Tuesday will keep investors occupied. First will be Fed Chairman Powell's speech, which will likely influence monetary policy action in June. The second significant event is the monthly US Retail Sales report, which is anticipated to increase by 0.7% from the previous reading of 0.5%.

 

In terms of the Swiss franc, Friday's Industrial Production data will be the focal point. The catalyst reached 7.3% the previous time. A greater-than-anticipated number will strengthen the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar. 

USD/CHF

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