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On January 7th, eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action for Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing," which mentions strengthening the supply of AI computing power. It promotes the coordinated development of intelligent chip hardware and software, supporting breakthroughs in key core technologies such as high-end training chips, edge inference chips, AI servers, high-speed interconnection, and intelligent computing cloud operating systems. It also calls for the orderly advancement of high-level intelligent computing infrastructure deployment, accelerating the construction of computing power interconnection platforms and a national integrated computing power network monitoring and scheduling platform, conducting pilot projects for intelligent computing cloud services, promoting the deployment of large-scale integrated models, edge computing servers, and industrial cloud computing power, and enhancing the supply capacity of intelligent computing resources.On January 7th, local time, Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff Budanov posted on his official social media platform that the "Volunteer Union" meeting held in Paris had achieved "concrete results." The Ukrainian negotiating delegation is currently continuing important negotiations in Paris to achieve lasting peace and reliable security guarantees for Ukraine. Not all information can be disclosed, but concrete results have been achieved, and work continues. Ukraines national interests will be protected.On January 7th, UBS analysts noted in a report that European oil giants may slow their quarterly share buyback pace. Analysts believe that companies may use this opportunity to reassess their capital frameworks in conjunction with updated earnings outlooks. Shell, listed in London, is expected to see the most significant reduction, with its quarterly buybacks falling from $3.5 billion to $3 billion. BP should be able to maintain its buyback levels using cash proceeds from asset divestitures; the British oil giant had previously cut its quarterly buybacks from $1.75 billion to $750 million early last year. Furthermore, Total Energy of France is expected to reduce its buybacks from $1.5 billion to $750 million. Analysts also indicated that Eni of Italy and Statoil of Norway may announce reductions in their buyback amounts on their respective capital markets days.January 7th - Since the imposition of sanctions on Venezuela, U.S. refineries have increased their crude oil imports from Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, and the Middle East. This increased U.S. imports from Venezuela will replace some of these crude oil supplies, primarily from Canada. Canada aims to increase oil production to record levels by 2025 and export approximately 90% of its crude oil to the United States. A refining industry source stated, "At a time when Venezuela is struggling, Canadian heavy crude oil has filled the market gap. Now, different grades of crude oil will compete, which is beneficial for the U.S. refining industry but detrimental to Canada." Randy Olenburg, Managing Director of Barmos Capital Markets, stated that the long-term growth in Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on Canadian oil prices and further highlight the need to build a new Canadian export pipeline to the Pacific coast.The UKs December construction PMI came in at 40.1, below the expected 42.5 and the previous reading of 39.4.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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