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April 4th - According to Oxford Economics, the US March employment figures significantly overestimated the strength of the pre-war job market, as the data reflected declines in both the labor force and household employment. Job growth will slow as the war in Iran impacts real economic activity. The wars impact on inflation is immediate, but its negative effects on consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will become more apparent in the coming months. Oxford Economics baseline forecast remains that the Federal Reserve will ignore the one-off shock of rising oil prices this year and cut interest rates twice to guard against any future weakness in the labor market.A U.S. judge refused to reconsider the ruling in the investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.GFZ (German Center for Geosciences): A 5.93-magnitude earthquake struck the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan.Federal Reserve Bank of Canada President Tom Daly stated that the economy no longer needs to create as many jobs as before to maintain the same employment rate. In this environment, monthly hiring data no longer accurately reflects the health of the labor market. The unemployment rate may be a better measure. She stated, "Ratios and indicators such as the employment-to-population ratio, the unemployment rate, the turnover rate, or the hiring rate reflect changes in the size of the labor force, thus providing a clearer picture of the health of the labor market."Federal Reserves Daly: Zero or negative growth in (employment) does not necessarily mean a weak economy.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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