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On September 19th, according to Jubo Information, the domestic petroleum coke market performed well this week, with overall prices trending upwards. For major oil companies, manufacturers had no inventory pressure and were mainly fulfilling existing orders; supply was tight in some areas, leading to price increases for some coke. For independent refineries, market transactions fluctuated, with coke prices rising initially and then falling, and overall production and sales slightly weakening throughout the week. Increased maintenance shutdowns at coke plants this week led to a decline in the overall operating rate, and the petroleum coke market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Regarding LNG, of the 133 domestic LNG plants, 70 were under maintenance/shutdown/suspended quoting/domestic sales, resulting in an overall operating rate of 47%. Influenced by factors such as raw material gas auctions and supply-side production contraction, domestic LNG market prices fluctuated upwards this week. Multiple positive factors supported the market, leading to strong bullish sentiment and price increases from manufacturers in many regions; however, downstream demand remained weak, with companies showing increasing reluctance to purchase due to high prices, resulting in limited procurement and sluggish sales for some manufacturers, leading to price declines in some areas. The domestic LNG market is expected to consolidate in the near term.According to Politico: Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX AI, and Google are being sued for calling for a “slowdown” in AI development.The U.S. State Department has decided to approve the sale of $2.68 billion worth of foreign military equipment to Ukraine to support its air defense development and upgrades.On September 19th, the Shaanxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics released its report on the provinces economic performance in the first eight months of the year: industrial production steadily rebounded, consumer demand continued to be released, and the economy showed a steady and positive development trend. According to relevant personnel from the Provincial Bureau of Statistics, in the first eight months, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.6% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.5 percentage points compared to the first seven months. Industrial production steadily rebounded, and product output grew steadily. Looking at the three major sectors, the added value of mining increased by 7.7% year-on-year, manufacturing by 1.5%, and the added value of electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply by 2.5%. Key industries performed well, with the added value of coal mining and washing increasing by 9.0% year-on-year and the added value of oil and gas extraction increasing by 9.7%. Product output grew steadily, with raw coal output increasing by 3.8% year-on-year and natural gas output increasing by 7.3%.September 19th - According to Shenzhen Railway authorities, the railway transportation period for this years Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays will run from September 23rd to October 8th, lasting 16 days. Shenzhen Railway expects to transport 5.7312 million passengers, averaging 358,200 passengers per day, an increase of 21,500 passengers per day compared to last year, representing a 6.39% increase and setting a new record for the same period. Among them, Shenzhen North Station is expected to transport 3.856 million passengers, averaging 241,000 passengers per day, an increase of 10,400 passengers per day compared to last year, representing a 4.3% increase.

USD/CAD Trades at a Flat Level Following Volatile Trading and Rising US Treasury Yields

Drake Hampton

Apr 06, 2022 10:16

Insights

  • The dollar fell as additional penalties against Russia weighed on the Loonie.

  • Benchmark rates increased as the Federal Reserve pursued a more aggressive rate hike strategy.

  • Due to the new penalties, gold and silver prices remained rather stable.

  • As European countries ponder further measures, oil prices continue to rise.

 

Despite a volatile trading session, the dollar maintained its strength as higher oil prices bolstered the commodity-linked Loonie. The yield on ten-year government bonds increased to 2.56 percent, the highest level since May 2019. Benchmark rates increased several basis points following Fed Governor Brainard's statement that the Fed must pursue a more aggressive stance to contain inflation. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Loonie increased in value as a result of higher oil prices and good economic indicators. New sanctions against Russia continue to benefit silver and gold prices. On the potential of fresh Russian sanctions, oil prices continued to increase. Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the most recent FMOC meeting on Wednesday.

 

Today, the US released its February trade balance. Actual balance of -$89.2 billion was lower than predicted at -$88.5 billion. The reading stayed relatively stable compared to the previous month, indicating a record deficiency. Exports increased by 1.8%, while imports jumped by 1.3 percent. In the following months, the Russia-Ukraine war may limit demand for US exports.

Technical Evaluation

The USD/CAD exchange rate remained unchanged following a recovery from the downward pressure caused by increased oil prices, which supported the Loonie. However, losses should be contained as a result of the Fed's more aggressive rate hikes. The pair remains below the key level of 1.25 and may be driven lower as additional penalties against Russia increase. Resistance is located near the 10-day moving average, which is now at 1.25. Near today's lows near 1.24, support is seen. A break below support would reveal the daily low of 1.2387 from November 10th, signaling further downward pressure. The short-term momentum shifted to the upside when the fast stochastic crossed above the buy signal.

 

Although the MACD line generated a crossover sell signal, the medium-term momentum is negative but favorable. When the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) passes the MACD signal line, this scenario occurs (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

 

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