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March 14 – According to foreign media reports, U.S. Energy Secretary Frank Wright took action on Friday to retaliate against two of the Trump administrations biggest adversaries: the oil supply disruptions caused by the war with Iran, and California Governor Gavin Newsom. Wright issued an order clearing the way for a company operating near the California coast to restart an oil pipeline that had been shut down by state officials since 2015. The Department of Energy characterized this move as a way to reduce reliance on oil imports via the Strait of Hormuz. "Today, more than 60 percent of the oil used by California refineries comes from overseas, a significant portion of which is transported through the Strait of Hormuz—a serious national security threat," the Department of Energy wrote in a statement. Wright stated that this move will "strengthen the United States oil supply and restore pipeline systems critical to our national security and defense, ensuring that military facilities on the West Coast have reliable energy sources essential for readiness."According to the Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter said that given polls showing President Trump’s actions on the vaccine issue are unpopular, his aides have decided to take a more active role in managing the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which is led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.According to the Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter revealed that the White House is tightening its control over the Department of Health and Human Services information dissemination and policy-making, including policies surrounding vaccines, in preparation for the midterm elections.March 14th - Today, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on price changes of key production materials in the circulation sector for the first ten days of March 2026. According to monitoring of market prices for 50 key production materials across nine categories nationwide, compared to the first ten days of February 2026, prices for 37 products increased, 10 decreased, and 3 remained unchanged.March 14th - According to foreign media reports, U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Bergham stated that the Trump administration had discussed curbing oil prices through trading in the oil futures market. However, Bergham said he was unclear whether the U.S. had actually intervened in the market. Bergham stated on Saturday, "I must say, there have been discussions. There are many smart people in this administration—and many smart people in the energy trading market. Trying to manipulate and lower prices through intervention requires a huge amount of money. Thats all I can say about that." The head of the company that regulates West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures trading warned that if the federal government were to begin trading derivatives to lower crude oil prices, it would be a "bible-level disaster."

USD/CAD Trades at a Flat Level Following Volatile Trading and Rising US Treasury Yields

Drake Hampton

Apr 06, 2022 10:16

Insights

  • The dollar fell as additional penalties against Russia weighed on the Loonie.

  • Benchmark rates increased as the Federal Reserve pursued a more aggressive rate hike strategy.

  • Due to the new penalties, gold and silver prices remained rather stable.

  • As European countries ponder further measures, oil prices continue to rise.

 

Despite a volatile trading session, the dollar maintained its strength as higher oil prices bolstered the commodity-linked Loonie. The yield on ten-year government bonds increased to 2.56 percent, the highest level since May 2019. Benchmark rates increased several basis points following Fed Governor Brainard's statement that the Fed must pursue a more aggressive stance to contain inflation. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Loonie increased in value as a result of higher oil prices and good economic indicators. New sanctions against Russia continue to benefit silver and gold prices. On the potential of fresh Russian sanctions, oil prices continued to increase. Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the most recent FMOC meeting on Wednesday.

 

Today, the US released its February trade balance. Actual balance of -$89.2 billion was lower than predicted at -$88.5 billion. The reading stayed relatively stable compared to the previous month, indicating a record deficiency. Exports increased by 1.8%, while imports jumped by 1.3 percent. In the following months, the Russia-Ukraine war may limit demand for US exports.

Technical Evaluation

The USD/CAD exchange rate remained unchanged following a recovery from the downward pressure caused by increased oil prices, which supported the Loonie. However, losses should be contained as a result of the Fed's more aggressive rate hikes. The pair remains below the key level of 1.25 and may be driven lower as additional penalties against Russia increase. Resistance is located near the 10-day moving average, which is now at 1.25. Near today's lows near 1.24, support is seen. A break below support would reveal the daily low of 1.2387 from November 10th, signaling further downward pressure. The short-term momentum shifted to the upside when the fast stochastic crossed above the buy signal.

 

Although the MACD line generated a crossover sell signal, the medium-term momentum is negative but favorable. When the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) passes the MACD signal line, this scenario occurs (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

 

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