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On January 24th, it was reported that on December 24th of last year, four departments, including the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting Relevant Policies of Beijing Real Estate," which involved adjustments to purchase restrictions and credit optimization. Overall, since the implementation of the new policy a month ago, transaction volume has been steadily increasing. Data from Centaline Property shows that since the release of the notice, the average daily number of new home sales contracts has increased by 44.6% month-on-month, with improved housing projects outside the Fifth Ring Road performing particularly well. In the secondary market, after the new policy, the average daily number of viewings at real estate agencies has increased by more than 20% compared to normal, and the average daily transaction volume of secondary homes has exceeded 500 units.January 24th - The Fourth Session of the 14th Beijing Municipal Committee of the Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) solemnly opened at the Beijing Conference Center at 9:00 AM today (January 24th). The opening session will review and adopt the "Agenda of the Fourth Session of the 14th Beijing Municipal Committee of the CPPCC," hear the "Work Report of the Standing Committee of the 14th Beijing Municipal Committee of the CPPCC," and hear the "Report of the Standing Committee of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the CPPCC on the Work of Proposals Since the Third Session of the 14th CPPCC."DownDetector, a network monitoring website, reports user complaints that social media platform “X” is experiencing issues.January 24th - The market is widely focused on when the window for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts will open. Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, stated that based on past experience, a reduction in the relending rate opens up corresponding room for overall interest rate cuts. With a large number of fixed deposits maturing in the first quarter, the pressure on bank interest rate spreads is easing, and the timing of a policy rate cut is expected in the second quarter. "A RRR cut is expected to be implemented in the first quarter, but a comprehensive interest rate cut still needs to wait," analyzed a research report from Galaxy Securities. The report suggests that with fiscal policy taking the lead and monetary policy actively cooperating with fiscal policy, a 50 basis point RRR cut is likely to be implemented. A comprehensive interest rate cut still needs to wait for the right opportunity; it is expected that there will be one to two interest rate cuts throughout the year, totaling a reduction of 10 to 20 basis points in the policy rate, thereby guiding the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) downward, which will then be transmitted to further reduce loan and deposit rates.On January 24th, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on the 23rd that US President Donald Trumps remarks about NATO allies not being on the front lines in the Afghan war were "insulting and shocking," and that Trump should apologize. In an interview in Davos, Switzerland, Trump claimed that the US "never needed" NATO, and that NATO allies "would say they sent troops to Afghanistan…they did, but in a slightly back position, a bit off the front lines." Starmer said Trumps remarks deeply hurt the families of British casualties, adding, "If I had said those things, I would certainly apologize." Earlier that day, the British Prime Ministers office issued a statement saying that British troops have been fighting alongside US troops, and that Trump "wrongly" downplayed the role of NATO forces, including British troops, in the Afghan war.

USD/CAD Trades at a Flat Level Following Volatile Trading and Rising US Treasury Yields

Drake Hampton

Apr 06, 2022 10:16

Insights

  • The dollar fell as additional penalties against Russia weighed on the Loonie.

  • Benchmark rates increased as the Federal Reserve pursued a more aggressive rate hike strategy.

  • Due to the new penalties, gold and silver prices remained rather stable.

  • As European countries ponder further measures, oil prices continue to rise.

 

Despite a volatile trading session, the dollar maintained its strength as higher oil prices bolstered the commodity-linked Loonie. The yield on ten-year government bonds increased to 2.56 percent, the highest level since May 2019. Benchmark rates increased several basis points following Fed Governor Brainard's statement that the Fed must pursue a more aggressive stance to contain inflation. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Loonie increased in value as a result of higher oil prices and good economic indicators. New sanctions against Russia continue to benefit silver and gold prices. On the potential of fresh Russian sanctions, oil prices continued to increase. Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the most recent FMOC meeting on Wednesday.

 

Today, the US released its February trade balance. Actual balance of -$89.2 billion was lower than predicted at -$88.5 billion. The reading stayed relatively stable compared to the previous month, indicating a record deficiency. Exports increased by 1.8%, while imports jumped by 1.3 percent. In the following months, the Russia-Ukraine war may limit demand for US exports.

Technical Evaluation

The USD/CAD exchange rate remained unchanged following a recovery from the downward pressure caused by increased oil prices, which supported the Loonie. However, losses should be contained as a result of the Fed's more aggressive rate hikes. The pair remains below the key level of 1.25 and may be driven lower as additional penalties against Russia increase. Resistance is located near the 10-day moving average, which is now at 1.25. Near today's lows near 1.24, support is seen. A break below support would reveal the daily low of 1.2387 from November 10th, signaling further downward pressure. The short-term momentum shifted to the upside when the fast stochastic crossed above the buy signal.

 

Although the MACD line generated a crossover sell signal, the medium-term momentum is negative but favorable. When the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) passes the MACD signal line, this scenario occurs (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

 

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