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April 4th - According to Oxford Economics, the US March employment figures significantly overestimated the strength of the pre-war job market, as the data reflected declines in both the labor force and household employment. Job growth will slow as the war in Iran impacts real economic activity. The wars impact on inflation is immediate, but its negative effects on consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will become more apparent in the coming months. Oxford Economics baseline forecast remains that the Federal Reserve will ignore the one-off shock of rising oil prices this year and cut interest rates twice to guard against any future weakness in the labor market.A U.S. judge refused to reconsider the ruling in the investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.April 4th - According to information obtained from Iran on the 3rd local time, a US F-16 fighter jet issued an emergency signal and was scheduled to make an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia. The specific reason for the forced landing is currently unclear.GFZ (German Center for Geosciences): A 5.93-magnitude earthquake struck the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan.Federal Reserve Bank of Canada President Tom Daly stated that the economy no longer needs to create as many jobs as before to maintain the same employment rate. In this environment, monthly hiring data no longer accurately reflects the health of the labor market. The unemployment rate may be a better measure. She stated, "Ratios and indicators such as the employment-to-population ratio, the unemployment rate, the turnover rate, or the hiring rate reflect changes in the size of the labor force, thus providing a clearer picture of the health of the labor market."

USD/CAD Becomes more robust in anticipation of a breach over 1.3850

Alina Haynes

Oct 12, 2022 14:42

截屏2022-10-12 上午9.46.20.png 

 

The USD/CAD pair is bouncing around 1.3800 in response to the US dollar index's sideways performance after making a better recovery from 112.50. (DXY). The attractiveness of safe haven assets is anticipated to increase as a result of the pessimistic risk sentiment and declining S&P500 futures. Also aiming for 4% are 10-year US Treasury yields.

 

The major is auctioning in a four-hour scale inventory adjustment exercise, indicating a marginally longer consolidation phase. It is crucial to note that the adjustment process entails institutional investors collecting or distributing markups. Prior momentum has remained quite bullish, thus the odds favor a premium accumulation.

 

The bullish filters are strengthened by the rising 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.3758 and 1.3705, respectively.

 

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14), which will start an uptrend, is striving to enter the bullish range of 60.00–80.00.

 

Dollar bulls will position the asset to hit a new two-year high of 1.4000 should it overcome Tuesday's high of 1.3855. In May 2020, the major will hit a high of 1.4173 if the latter is breached.

 

On the other hand, the asset will move toward the psychological support at 1.3500 and then the peak from September 19 at 1.3344 if there is a strong break below the round-level support at 1.3600.


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