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On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that due to the strong reaction of some US trading partners to the new tariffs and the widespread uncertainty, European economic sentiment in the second quarter may be worse than we previously expected. We lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in the euro area and the UK in the second quarter by 0.1 percentage point to 0.1% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively. This will lower our annual forecast for the euro area economy in 2025 to 0.9%, and our economic forecast for the UK in 2025 and 2026 to 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively.April 6, Germanys Berenberg Bank said that tariff uncertainty has not yet reached its peak. Trumps tariff shock has laid the foundation for negotiations. As long as the results of Trumps negotiations with various countries are unknown, companies around the world may hesitate to invest in the United States or its most affected trading partners. The failure of these negotiations may lead to rounds of tit-for-tat retaliation. Trump may also add new tariffs on specific industries, including medicines, which have so far been exempt from his reciprocal tariffs. We assume that in response to rising US inflation, economic turmoil and threats of retaliation, the United States will negotiate to cancel about half of its new tariffs on Europe by the end of the second quarter. Otherwise, the bank said it would have to further lower its forecasts for US and eurozone growth.The strong earthquake in Myanmar has killed 3,564 people, injured 5,012 people, and left 210 people missing.On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that downward pressure on US economic growth has intensified. Based on the reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday, the sharp decline in US stocks (US households exposure to the stock market has reached a record high), and the continued rise in uncertainty that has hindered corporate investment and employment plans, we have lowered our forecast for US real GDP growth in 2025 from 2.3% to 1.7%, and GDP in 2026 from 2.0% to 1.6%. Due to the increase in tariffs and the recent rise in inflation expectations, we expect US inflation (measured by core PCE) to reach 3.0% in 2025, compared with the previous forecast of 2.7%.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Starmer in London on April 24.

US open: Stocks Head Lower, Twitter, Big Tech in Focus

Cory Russell

Apr 27, 2022 10:53

The Headlines on Twitter

Following a strong finish in the previous session and ahead of the commencement of large tech results, US markets are expected to start lower. Inflation has been a major subject this earnings season, and investors will be watching for clues about the impact of inflation on consumer spending when the numbers come in.


The statistics from the United States showed that durable goods rose 0.8 percent in March, up from 1.7 percent in February, but still falling short of the 1 percent expectation.

 

Looking forward Consumer confidence in the United States is predicted to improve to 108.00 from a 10-month low later this afternoon. This would be the first time in four months that it has improved, despite rising prices. Interestingly, despite a drop in consumer confidence, Americans have continued to spend, with retail sales remaining largely stable.

In TheBusiness World:

Twitter is up 0.2 percent in premarket trading as investors digest the news that Elon Musk has purchased the social media company after the board approved a $44 billion deal to take it private.


Elon Musk has already stated that he may not seek to monetize Twitter; instead, his goal is to make it a more transparent and fair platform for free speech.

 

In the next months, profits will pick up a notch, with large tech earnings taking center stage. Earnings growth is likely to slow in general. However, Microsoft is expected to disclose record earnings after the market closes today. Despite this, the stock has underperformed.

 

After the closing, Alphabet is also expected to report. On revenue of $68.13 billion, EPS of $25.63 is expected.

Where Does the S&P500 Go From Here?

The S&P500 hit resistance at the 100 sma at 4510, then dropped below the 50 sma, finding support at 4200. While trading out of oversold territory, the RSI is below 50, suggesting potential decline. 


A break below 4210/4200 could open the door to 4140 if the index breaks below it. Meanwhile, the extended lower wick on the candle to 4200 could stimulate buyers, implying that the price did not find much acceptance at these lower levels, therefore propelling the price higher. Buyers are attempting to break through resistance at 4280, with a move above exposing the 50 sma at 4400.

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