EUR/USD
1.18526
-0.986%
Gold
4847.62
-9.836%
Oil
65.488
0.377%
USD/JPY
154.755
1.076%
GBP/USD
1.36826
-0.917%
GBP/JPY
211.750
0.158%
Real-time News
February 2nd - With Kevin Warshs nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, market focus has abruptly shifted from short-term interest rates to the Feds $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its fundamental role in the market. Zach Griffiths, Head of Investment Grade Bonds and Macro Strategy at CreditSights, noted, "He has consistently been a vocal critic of the Feds balance sheet expansion." Warsh hopes to fundamentally reverse the trend of asset expansion and push for other reforms. However, this move will face complex challenges, directly impacting not only long-term interest rates but also the core markets upon which large global financial institutions rely for daily interbank lending. If policymakers agree to shrink the balance sheet, the transmission effect in the market could lead to a conflict between the Feds and the governments goals of reducing long-term borrowing costs. This could force the Treasury or other US agencies to become more deeply involved in market management, which will face even greater challenges given the continued rise in total borrowing demand and the already over $30 trillion national debt. PGIM points out that if Warshs predictions are true, then the pressure to regulate will shift to the Treasury.February 2nd - On February 1st local time, Mexican President Sinbaum announced plans to send humanitarian aid to Cuba, including food and other basic necessities, while simultaneously seeking to resume oil shipments to Cuba "through all diplomatic channels" despite US restrictions. On the evening of January 31st, US President Trump publicly stated that he had asked Sinbaum to halt oil shipments to Cuba. On the same day, Mexican Foreign Minister De la Fuente responded that Mexico would not suspend humanitarian aid to Cuba.February 2nd - On February 1st local time, US President Trump, answering reporters questions about Iran at Mar-a-Lago, stated his hope that "a deal can be reached." Responding to Iranian Supreme Leader Khameneis warning that a US strike would trigger a regional war, Trump said that if a deal cannot be reached, "then well see if he (Khamenei) is right." Trump emphasized to reporters that the US has deployed "the worlds largest and most powerful ships" in the region. Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that Iran "remains confident" of reaching an agreement with the US on the nuclear issue.Domestic News: 1. The State Taxation Administration clarified the threshold for value-added tax (VAT) collection and management. 2. Wang Yi held strategic communication with Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. 3. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC): Investors should closely monitor changes in precious metal prices and reasonably control their position size. 4. The first-month performance reports of emerging electric vehicle manufacturers in the new year are released. Xiaomi, Wenjie, and HarmonyOS performed well, while BYDs production and sales both declined. 5. Guotou Silver LOF: Trading will be suspended from the opening of the market on February 2nd until 10:30 am on the same day. The daily price fluctuation limit after resumption of trading will be 10%. 6. China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom announced: The scope of application of VAT on telecommunications services has been adjusted, and the tax rate has increased to 9%, which will affect the companys revenue and profits. International News: 1. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament announced that the armies of European countries will be considered "terrorist organizations." 2. US media: The Speaker of the US House of Representatives said he is confident that the partial government shutdown will end by Tuesday. 3. Zelensky: A new round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia will be held on February 4th and 5th. 4. Saudi stocks suffered their biggest drop since June last year due to geopolitical factors and a gold price plunge. 5. Indias budget: 400 billion rupees will be allocated to support the semiconductor manufacturing industry. 6. Indias stock market held a special trading session on Sunday due to the budget, with metal stocks and ETFs suffering heavy losses. 7. OPEC+ statement: Eight member countries will maintain their original plan to suspend increases in oil production in March. 8. US-Iran situation—① It is reported that high-ranking US and Israeli military officials held intensive talks this weekend to discuss a strike against Iran. ② Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that if the US launches a war this time, it will trigger a regional conflict. ③ Iranian officials: Media reports about the Revolutionary Guard planning military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz are incorrect. ④ US media: The US military is strengthening its air defense deployment in the Middle East to prepare for potential action against Iran.OPEC+ Statement: The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reiterated the importance of full compliance with oil production targets.
