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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

U.S. Inventory Depletion And Supply Disruptions Lower Oil Prices

Skylar Williams

Feb 08, 2023 14:25

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Oil prices declined on Wednesday, following a remarkable gain in the previous session, as traders digested conflicting data on U.S. oil inventories and anticipated further information on supply disruptions caused by the Turkish earthquake.


In the week ending February 3, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that U.S. oil stockpiles unexpectedly decreased by 2.1 million barrels. The estimate foreshadows a similar trend in government data expected to be released later in the day, which is expected to show an inventory increase of 2,457,000 barrels.


The API data also revealed that gasoline and distillate inventories increased over the last week, indicating that retail fuel use remained under pressure. Retail fuel consumption is a primary driver of U.S. demand.


Inventories of crude oil in the United States have increased over the past six weeks, prompting some concerns about demand in the world's largest oil user, which is struggling with high inflation and rising interest rates.


By 20:51 ET, Brent oil prices decreased 0.5% to $83.68 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures decreased 0.3% to $77.28 per barrel (01:51 GMT). On Tuesday, both contracts rose more than 4 percent.


This week, oil prices rose dramatically due to supply interruptions caused by a huge earthquake in Turkey. Recent media reports suggested that a pipeline from Iraq to the Turkish oil export center of Ceyhan has restarted operations.


However, exports of Azerbaijani crude remained blocked, since it was unsure when supplies would resume following a series of earthquakes that struck Turkey earlier this week.


Mild dollar weakening aided petroleum prices this week, as the currency retreated from recent highs in response to mixed monetary policy signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday. While Powell cautioned that interest rates could rise further as a result of the robust labor market, he noted that the economy was experiencing some disinflation following a series of strong rate hikes through 2022.


Fears of rising interest rates have been a significant source of unease for petroleum markets this year, with traders anticipating that a resulting slowdown in economic development might reduce global crude demand.


After the world's top crude importer relaxed the majority of anti-COVID rules this year, concerns over a decline in Chinese demand were tempered by newfound optimism. The International Energy Agency anticipates that global crude demand will reach record highs this year due to China's economic growth.

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