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On April 3, Morgan Stanley published a research report stating that due to the high tax rate, it lowered its earnings per share forecast for Cheung Kong Holdings (00001.HK) by 11% this year and next year, and lowered its dividend forecast by 11% and 12%. Among them, the bank expects the groups earnings per share to increase by 3% to HK$5.62 this year, and the full-year dividend to increase by 4% to HK$2.3. The bank expects that although the groups business was at a high base last year, its performance will still grow in the next two years.UBS warned that full tariffs could push U.S. inflation to 5%.On April 3, White House aide Peter Navarro said that US President Trump’s tariffs could increase revenue by three times the size of the World War II tax increase in 1942, and could become the largest tax increase in US history.On April 3, a research report by CLSA indicated that ChinaSoft International (00354.HK)s revenue fell 1% year-on-year to RMB 16.951 billion last year, and the first disclosed AI-related revenue was RMB 957 million, accounting for 5.6% of revenue. The companys price reduction strategy has led to a decline in gross profit margin, and the main reason for the lower-than-expected net profit is a one-time impact. The bank expects the companys fundamentals to improve this year, mainly because the number of employees increased in the second half of last year. The bank expects the companys net profit to reach RMB 748 million this year, up 45.8% year-on-year, and lowered the target price from HK$7 to HK$6.5, maintaining the rating of outperforming the market.On April 3, the Australian bond market has experienced a dovish turn since the White House announced its new tariff agenda. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said that the market has priced in an 85% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May. Subsequent rate cuts are expected in August and November, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by November. He added that US tariffs have far exceeded expectations, increasing the likelihood of a trade war and recession in the United States. He also said that since goods from countries such as Vietnam are now effectively shut out of the United States, cheap goods are expected to flood other Asian markets.

US Dollar Index Dodges Around 100.60, Eyes More Upside on Hawkish Powell

Larissa Barlow

Apr 22, 2022 09:48

The US dollar index (DXY) is demonstrating casual fluctuations in a modest range of 100.55-100.66 after a robust comeback on Thursday. Since the likelihood of a major rate hike by the Federal Reserve increased, the DXY has exhibited a clear reversal after falling below the psychological support level of 100.00. (Fed). After declaring that investors should brace for a half-percent rate hike in May's monetary policy, Fed chair Jerome Powell's speech boosted the likelihood of a 50 bps interest rate hike.

Fed’s Powell Speech at IMF

The arrival of Fed’s Powell at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) produced a significant reversal in the DXY as Powell repeated that the tight labor market and increasing inflation are driving the Fed to move faster to the neutral rates than to the pace adopted in past raise cycles. Current pricing pressures are damaging the economy, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve System (Fed) to reduce the CPI (Consumer Price Index) down to the targeted 2 percent level.

Key Events Next Week

Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, Housing Price index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics, Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) (CSI).

Eminent Issues on the Back Boiler

ECB President Christine Lagarde and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey are all scheduled to speak at upcoming events, including the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the IMF summit.

Dollar Index Spot

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