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Real-time News
Daly, a 2027 FOMC voting member and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, will speak in ten minutes.1. According to TASS, citing Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, the Russian government is considering extending export quotas for certain fertilizers. Patrushev did not specify which types of fertilizers might be affected by the quota extension. 2. Brazils National Supply Company (Conab) stated in its fourth survey that sugarcane production in Brazils central-southern region is projected to reach 616.24 million tons in 2025/26, higher than the previous forecast of 607.38 million tons. Total sugarcane production in Brazil for 2025/26 is projected to reach 673.25 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of 666.44 million tons. Sugar production in Brazils central-southern region for 2025/26 is projected to reach 40.78 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 40.64 million tons. 3. Lebanese President Aoun stated that a ceasefire is the entry point and pathway for advancing negotiations, and is an option widely supported both domestically and internationally. Direct negotiations are crucial, requiring shared responsibility from all parties, and the world is watching Lebanon closely. He said the Lebanese governments position is to consolidate the ceasefire, ensure the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon and the release of prisoners, and resolve outstanding border disputes. 4. Sources say the US is leading a G20 initiative to promote coordinated action to ensure fertilizer supplies and address disruptions to food trade supply chains. 5. According to Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi: Under the Lebanese ceasefire agreement, the Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization has announced that during the remainder of the ceasefire, all commercial vessels will have full access to the Strait of Hormuz, with routes exactly as previously announced. 6. According to Axios, two US officials and two sources familiar with the negotiations revealed that the US and Iran are negotiating a three-page plan to end the war, one element of which is that the US will unfreeze $20 billion in Iranian funds in exchange for Iran relinquishing its enriched uranium stockpile. 7. US President Trump stated that Iran has agreed not to close the Strait of Hormuz again and that it will no longer be used as a weapon against the world. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has calmed down, and I received a call from NATO asking if we needed help. I told them not to interfere unless they just wanted to take the opportunity to fill their own ships with oil. Theyre useless in a pinch; theyre just paper tigers! 8. A shipping industry analyst stated that while Irans Foreign Minister announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is "fully open" for ships using routes designated by Iran, this does not reassure the shipping industry that shipping activities through the strait can resume. 9. According to CMEs "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5% (unchanged from this morning). The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by June is 7.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 92.4%, and the probability of cumulatively raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0.5%.The yield on the five-year U.S. Treasury note fell 10 basis points during the day.A senior Ukrainian defense official said he met with the Indian Foreign Minister to discuss the conflict.European natural gas prices fell as much as 10% after US President Trump made comments about the Strait of Hormuz.
