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The euro against the dollar is under pressure at the 1.16 line, and multiple factors drag the euro down

Oct 26, 2021 10:55

On Monday (October 18), the euro remained weak against the US dollar, and the exchange rate opened at around 1.1600, but failed to preserve its upward momentum. The current exchange rate is trading below 1.1600.


Following the rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields, the U.S. dollar rose above 94.00. Concerns that rising energy prices will push up inflation and optimism in US retail sales push up Treasury bond yields. Investors also expect the Fed to start reducing asset purchases as soon as November, while the European Central Bank maintains a dovish stance to suppress the euro. The expectation of a weak global economy has been strengthened within the day, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, and the US dollar is favored.

European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the central bank will continue to provide support to the euro zone economy because the impact of the epidemic is still there. She previously said that the inflation rate is "basically short-lived." In addition, Klass Knot, a member of the European Central Bank Management Committee, ignores inflation concerns and the prospect of short-term interest rate hikes.

In terms of economic data, industrial production in the Eurozone fell by 1.6% in August, and increased by 1.4% after revisions to the previous value.

At present, traders are waiting for US industrial production data, and Fed officials Quarles' speech to seek new trading momentum.

Technology prospects


The daily chart shows that the euro fell against the US dollar in early October, staying below 1.1600, and on Tuesday tested the year's low near 1.1524. The euro against the dollar is already below the 21-day moving average and the 50-day moving average, maintaining a downside risk.

Now, if the euro against the dollar breaks through the 20-day moving average of 1.1618, there may be a daily rise. The first upside target for the EUR/USD will be the 1.1650 resistance level, followed by the September 29 high of 1.1690. The MACD indicator is oversold. If the MACD indicator continues to run upwards, the long target for the euro against the US dollar is 1.1750.

Or, if the euro/dollar breaks below the low, the shorts will once again dominate, and the support will be at the 1.1555 level. Next, market participants will test the low of 1.1524. If the euro against the dollar falls below the above level, it will test the 2018 low.

UOB foreign exchange strategist: the euro against the dollar will still try to rise to 1.1640 in the next few weeks


24-hour view: "Yesterday we thought that'the euro does not rule out the possibility of further rise, but it is unlikely to hit the important resistance level of 1.1640.'Our view is correct, because the euro rose to 1.1624 and then fell. The upward pressure weakened, the euro did not It is very likely to strengthen further. The euro is more likely to consolidate in the 1.1570/1.1620 range today."

1-3 week outlook: "Our view has not changed much since October 14. The recent decline has ended. The rapid rebound has gained momentum, and the euro may rise to 1.1640. The euro does not rule out the possibility of further rise, but it is not easy to break through 1.1640. As long as it does not fall below 1.1540 in the next few days, the upward trend will remain unchanged."

(Daily chart of the euro against the dollar)

At 17:15 GMT+8, the euro traded at 1.1584 against the dollar.

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