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February 23 - Gold and silver prices rose in early Asian trading, driven by risk aversion. President Trump announced on Saturday that he would raise a global tariff to 15% to replace several tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. An ANZ research report noted that Trumps latest move has reignited trade tensions, potentially stimulating safe-haven buying and supporting gold and silver prices.Sources say India has postponed its plans to travel to the US this week to negotiate a trade agreement due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs.1. Monday: ① Data: 17:00 Germany February IFO Business Climate Index; 23:00 US December Factory Orders MoM; 23:30 US February Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. ② Events: Iran finalizes draft agreement with the US; 21:00 Fed Governor Waller speaks. ③ Holiday: Japanese stock market and mainland China market closed; northbound and southbound trading closed. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: 09:00 China Loan Prime Rate; 19:00 UK February CBI Retail Sales Balance; 22:00 US December FHFA House Price Index MoM; 22:00 US December S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY (Unadjusted); 23:00 US December Wholesale Sales MoM; 23:00 US February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; 23:00 US February Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. ② Events: Domestic refined oil price adjustment; US President Trump delivers State of the Union address; 01:30 ECB President Lagarde speaks; 13:00 New 15% global tariffs from the US take effect; 22:10 Fed Governor Waller speaks; 22:35 Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on AI. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: 05:30 US API crude oil inventories for the week ending February 20; 08:30 Australia January unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate; 15:00 Germany March GfK consumer confidence index, Germany Q4 unadjusted GDP year-on-year final reading; 17:00 Switzerland February ZEW investor confidence index; 18:00 Eurozone January CPI data; 23:30 US EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending February 20. ② Events: 00:00 Apple Inc. 2026 Annual Shareholder Meeting; 04:15 Federal Reserves Barkin and Collins jointly attend a panel discussion; 09:20 300 billion yuan of MLF and 400 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos mature; 16:40 RBA Governor Bullock participates in a fireside chat. 4. Thursday: ① Data: 18:00 Eurozone February Industrial Sentiment Index and Economic Sentiment Index; 21:30 Canadas Q4 Current Account; 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 21; 23:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage for the week ending February 20. ② Events: 05:00 Nvidia releases earnings report after US market close; 06:00 Nvidia earnings call. Baidu releases earnings report before US market open (pending); 20:30 Baidu earnings call. 5. Friday: ① Data: 08:01 UK February GfK Consumer Confidence Index; 15:45 France February CPI (preliminary), Q4 GDP (final); 16:00 Switzerland February KOF Leading Economic Indicator; 16:55 Germany February Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate; 21:00 Germany February CPI (preliminary); 21:30 Canada December GDP (monthly); 21:30 US January PPI (yearly); 22:45 US February Chicago PMI; 23:00 US December Construction Spending (monthly). ② Event: 15:00 MSCI China Index February adjustment takes effect. ③ Holiday: Taiwan stock market closed. 6. Saturday: ① Data: 02:00 US Total Oil Rig Count for the Week Ending February 27. ② Event: Berkshire Hathaway Earnings Report. 7. Sunday: ① Event: OPEC+ Meeting.February 23 – The 9th Congress of the Workers Party of Korea continued on February 22. The meeting discussed and revised the Workers Party Constitution and elected members of the Central Leadership. The Congress expressed its full support for and endorsement of the proposal to re-elect Kim Jong Un to the highest position in the Workers Party of Korea, and elected him as General Secretary of the Workers Party of Korea. The meeting also elected members and alternate members of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea. Kim Jong Un, Pak Thae Song, Jo Yong Won, Ri Il Hwan, and 139 others were elected as members of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea.February 23 - Analysts say that as skepticism surrounding artificial intelligence grows, Wall Street is increasingly worried that the chip giants earnings this week will drag down its stock price. Nvidias stock has been trading sideways for months, rising only 1.7% since the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year, slightly below the S&P 500s 3.3% gain over the same period. Nvidias recent lackluster performance is largely due to increased investor concerns about spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI development, leading to capital outflows from large-cap tech stocks. However, the stock market also faces numerous external risks, including geopolitical instability and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts. All of this puts Nvidia in a delicate position when it releases its fourth-quarter and fiscal year results on Wednesday. Investors expect its results to far exceed Wall Street expectations and raise forecasts for the coming quarters. But the company may have little to do or say to drive a meaningful rise in its stock price. Nvidias stock price has fallen after its last two earnings releases.

The election battle has already started. Who will benefit the gold price?

Eden

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

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If Trump loses power, gold prices may rise before the election

Under the epidemic, the Federal Reserve introduced an unlimited amount of easing policy, coupled with Congress’s rescue plan, which triggered a bubble in the financial market. The market risk was very high when it was realized, but because it was the election, the breakpoint was still not reached. In addition, the market generally believes that Trump’s election is beneficial to the stock market. Therefore, if Trump loses its position in the election, some investors may withdraw their funds from the stock market and turn to assets they consider safer, such as gold. High gold prices. This situation may occur before the general election, so changes in the election situation must not be ignored.


Biden's 7.3 trillion dollar policy or favorable gold market

If Biden is elected, it will undoubtedly ease the conflict at home and abroad and effectively suppress the epidemic. However, because the United States has suffered severely due to the epidemic, after Biden is elected, the chances of financial markets returning to before the epidemic are not low. The price of gold will return to the economy and fundamentals and will be affected by changes in the quantitative easing policy.


Judging from the current situation, the Fed stated earlier that unlimited easing will continue until 2023, which will allow gold prices to be supported to a certain extent. Therefore, at least before 2023, the election of Biden as president has limited impact on gold prices.


In addition, Biden proposes to launch a spending plan of US$7.3 trillion in the next 10 years. Some analysts believe that this is good for gold prices. Because of the increase in US government debt, the dollar will weaken and the price of gold will rise.


Even if Trump is re-elected, he will face a weak US economy, and the market's safe-haven demand for gold will not decrease.


Finally, if the elected president and the Congress belong to the same party, it is undoubtedly the most beneficial for governance. However, if the president and Congress split the party, the power of the president is weakened and domestic conflicts increase, which may benefit the price of gold.


If it is a real gold investment, the current gold price is under pressure and you can consider entering the market. However, if you participate in the form of leverage, you must pay attention to the current market sentiment, as the price of gold fluctuates greatly during the general election.


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