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The USD/JPY has dropped from its monthly high above 137.00, as have yields, and the Japan PMI has been mostly ignored

Alina Haynes

Aug 23, 2022 14:59

 截屏2022-08-23 上午10.28.49.png

 

USD/JPY took offers to retest intraday low around 137.20 during the Asian session on Tuesday, extending the decline from a monthly high as market mood deteriorated amid conflicting signals and a cautious mindset ahead of the significant data/events. The yen pair has fallen for the first time in six days, despite the fact that recent economic figures from Japan have been disappointing.

 

Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in Japan dropped to 51.0 in August, down from 51.8 in July and 52.1 in June, according to preliminary data. The Jibun Bank Services PMI also fell, from 50.7 in the last poll and 50.7 as expected by the market, to 49.2.

 

With a decline of almost two basis points from its monthly high of 3.04% to its current level of 3.02%, the interest rate on the 10-year US Treasury note has fallen (bps).

 

The decline in benchmark US bond yields could be attributable to a lack of strong triggers and inconsistent rumors regarding the People's Bank of China (PBOC). Recent articles in China's Securities Times suggest that the PBOC may lower RRR this year to compensate for the end of the medium-term lending facility (MLF). The paper suggests that a reduction in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) could lead to reduced prime lending rates. Notably, this report comes from a government organization.

 

Some variables, such as Japan's propensity to print more money and the decision of Japanese exporters to book gains, may have contributed to the recent decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate. For the fiscal year commencing in April 2023, the Japanese Ministry of Finance would reportedly need $26.9 trillion yen ($195.5 billion), according to a report from Reuters on Tuesday.

 

In spite of this, projections of higher Fed rates and stronger US data, plus with geopolitical concerns over Russia and Ukraine, kept USD/JPY buyers bullish.

 

Today's agenda is ornamented with the preliminary readings of the US PMIs for August, as well as the US New Home Sales for July and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will be issued on Friday, will be key for establishing clear instructions.

 

The 137.50 to 55 zone is anticipated to act as support for USD/JPY bears seeking to achieve the low near 139.40 in July. Although buyers should be cautious as long as the price is trading above the 50-day moving average (135.57), the MACD and RSI are both trending upwards, indicating a possible price increase (14).


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