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On October 25th, local time, Sudans Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced their control of Bara, a major city in North Kordofan State, central Sudan. The statement stated that the RSF launched a full-scale offensive against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)-held city, inflicting thousands of casualties and injuring hundreds, ultimately securing full control of the city. The statement also stated that retaking Bara is a significant step toward full control of the Kordofan region. The SAF has yet to respond to the statement.Pakistans Defense Minister: We see Afghanistans desire for peace, but failure to reach an agreement will mean open war.On October 25th, local time, the second round of ceasefire talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan began in Istanbul, Turkey. The talks were hosted by Turkey and held at an Istanbul hotel. The Pakistani delegation included the militarys director of operations and security and intelligence officials. The Afghan delegation was led by Deputy Interior Minister Rahmatullah Najeeb.On October 25th, Belgorod Oblast Governor Ilya Gladkov announced that Ukrainian armed forces had damaged the Belgorod Reservoir Dam. He stated that Ukrainian forces might attempt to attack and destroy the dam again. If this were to happen, several streets in riverbanks and settlements near Kharkiv Oblast would be flooded, impacting the lives of approximately 1,000 residents. Gladkov stated that local authorities have advised residents at risk of flooding to move to temporary relocation sites. The Ukrainian side has not yet responded to this request.On October 25th, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Villeroy warned lawmakers debating the 2026 budget that the deficit must not exceed 4.8% of economic output to ensure France can cope with its growing debt burden. The French National Assembly is currently debating a draft budget that targets 4.7% GDP growth, but Prime Minister Jean-Claude Le Cornu has said the ultimate target should be within 5%, and he is seeking a compromise with opposition lawmakers. "It is absolutely necessary to keep the deficit below 3% between now and 2029, which would imply a maximum deficit of 4.8% next year," Villeroy de Villeroy said in an interview with La Croix. He also stated that France faces the risk of "progressive suffocation" from debt and that additional deficit spending will fail to stimulate economic growth. According to calculations by the Bank of France, if debt uncertainty is reduced, a 1% reduction in the household savings rate would boost economic growth by 0.4%. However, Villeroy de Villeroy stated that the French economy has strong momentum this year and growth will be "at least" as strong as the Banks forecast of 0.7%.

The USD/CAD Exchange Rate Advances Towards 1.2600 Due to Low Oil Prices

Larissa Barlow

Apr 11, 2022 09:55

  • The USD/CAD is edging closer to last week's high of 1.2620 as bears target the oil sector.

  • Reduced supply concerns and declining demand in China have resulted in a decline in oil prices.

  • The DXY is predicted to move in an unpredictable manner ahead of the US CPI.

 

The USD/CAD pair is blowing out of its consolidation range, which was 1.2562-1.2578 in the early Asian session due to plummeting oil prices and a jump in the US dollar index (DXY) following a bearish initial breach below 100.00.

 

Oil prices are extending last week's losses as supply fears ease and demand declines as a result of China's harsh limitations on Covid-19. The International Energy Agency (IEA) intends to release 60 million barrels from its strategic stockpiles over the next six months, implying an additional two million barrel release. Earlier this month, US Vice President Joe Biden said an additional one million barrels of oil would be released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a six-month period (SPR). Reduced supply concerns combined with increasing oil production by countries may result in a correction of oil prices. However, it would be fascinating to see how much additional oil is released to compensate for the shortage in Russian oil caused by Western rivals' harsh sanctions.

 

On the demand side, China's government has put Shanghai, the country's most populous city, under its 'zero tolerance' category in order to control the Covid-19's escalation. China is the world's largest importer of oil, and any decline in demand from the colossus will wreak havoc on oil prices.

 

Reduced supply concerns and declining demand will continue to support the greenback against the loonie in the future. Canada, as the largest oil exporter to the US, will see a decline in inflows as oil prices fall.

 

The DXY is likely to exhibit significant swings ahead of Tuesday's release of US inflation data. While the Bank of Canada's (BOC) interest rate decision on Wednesday is critical.

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