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July 27 – According to The Hill, U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy said on Sunday that it “seems unlikely” for Trump to end the war with Iran quickly, and suggested that Trump seek a path to peace from Congress. Cassidy stated, “I do think we need a more comprehensive national discussion about how to move forward. If the president can end this conflict quickly—which seems unlikely, but they still seem to be assuring us that it can be done. Well, that’s fine too.” Cassidy has consistently criticized Trump’s handling of the war, particularly its impact on the cost of living. In May, after failing to retain his Senate seat, Cassidy became one of four Republican senators supporting a war powers resolution that calls for Trump to withdraw U.S. troops deployed in Iran.July 27th - Economists predict that the Bank of England will take a hawkish stance at its meeting this week, but will keep interest rates unchanged, amid renewed Middle East conflict and soaring energy prices. Since the Monetary Policy Committees last meeting in June, the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement has pushed global oil prices back to around $100 per barrel, and European natural gas prices have surged to their highest level since the beginning of the conflict. Oil prices could rise further if shipping routes in the Gulf region continue to be disrupted. The UK economy performed better than the Monetary Policy Committees expectations at the beginning of the conflict, with GDP growing by 0.7% in the three months to May. Currently, there are few signs that the energy shock will trigger more persistent price pressures. The CPI has been below expectations for three consecutive months, falling to 2.6% in June. Wage growth, a major source of inflationary pressure, has slowed, and food price increases have also declined. Economists say this will allow the Monetary Policy Committee to keep interest rates at 3.75% at Thursdays meeting, while signaling that the committee is prepared to tighten policy if energy prices rise sharply further, or if a one-off price shock begins to evolve into a more persistent problem.Indonesian Cabinet Secretary: Calls on market participants to remain calm during the transition led by the Central Bank of Indonesia.Japans leading economic indicators rose 0.4% month-on-month in May, down from 0.7% in the previous month.Japans May coincident indicator final reading was 117.9, compared to 118.5 in the previous month.

The USD/CAD Exchange Rate Advances Towards 1.2600 Due to Low Oil Prices

Larissa Barlow

Apr 11, 2022 09:55

  • The USD/CAD is edging closer to last week's high of 1.2620 as bears target the oil sector.

  • Reduced supply concerns and declining demand in China have resulted in a decline in oil prices.

  • The DXY is predicted to move in an unpredictable manner ahead of the US CPI.

 

The USD/CAD pair is blowing out of its consolidation range, which was 1.2562-1.2578 in the early Asian session due to plummeting oil prices and a jump in the US dollar index (DXY) following a bearish initial breach below 100.00.

 

Oil prices are extending last week's losses as supply fears ease and demand declines as a result of China's harsh limitations on Covid-19. The International Energy Agency (IEA) intends to release 60 million barrels from its strategic stockpiles over the next six months, implying an additional two million barrel release. Earlier this month, US Vice President Joe Biden said an additional one million barrels of oil would be released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a six-month period (SPR). Reduced supply concerns combined with increasing oil production by countries may result in a correction of oil prices. However, it would be fascinating to see how much additional oil is released to compensate for the shortage in Russian oil caused by Western rivals' harsh sanctions.

 

On the demand side, China's government has put Shanghai, the country's most populous city, under its 'zero tolerance' category in order to control the Covid-19's escalation. China is the world's largest importer of oil, and any decline in demand from the colossus will wreak havoc on oil prices.

 

Reduced supply concerns and declining demand will continue to support the greenback against the loonie in the future. Canada, as the largest oil exporter to the US, will see a decline in inflows as oil prices fall.

 

The DXY is likely to exhibit significant swings ahead of Tuesday's release of US inflation data. While the Bank of Canada's (BOC) interest rate decision on Wednesday is critical.

USD/CAD

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