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On May 9th, Japans Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on social media that Japan may send government officials to Russia as early as the end of May to maintain communication channels and provide support to its companies still operating in Russia. METI stated that it is necessary to protect the assets of Japanese companies remaining in Russia, and to support these efforts, the Japanese government has been maintaining government-level communication with Russia and has made relevant requests.May 9th - As the war with Iran disrupts oil transport in the Persian Gulf, global oil inventories are being depleted at a record rate, eroding the buffers originally intended to withstand supply shocks. The rapid shrinking of inventories means the risk of more extreme price spikes and supply shortages is looming. With the Strait of Hormuz nearing closure for two months, governments and industries have fewer options to cope with a supply loss of over 1 billion barrels. The sharp depletion of inventories also means that even after the conflict ends, the market will remain vulnerable to future supply disruptions for a longer period. Morgan Stanley estimates that global oil inventories fell by an average of about 4.8 million barrels per day between March 1st and April 25th, far exceeding previous peaks in quarterly inventory declines compiled by the International Energy Agency. Crude oil accounted for nearly 60% of the decline, with the remainder being refined products. Crucially, the oil system also needs to set a minimum inventory level. Natasha Kaneva, global head of commodities research at JPMorgan Chase, stated that this means that the untouchable safety stock will be reached before inventories truly bottom out.On May 9th, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) clarified that rumors circulating online claiming "new energy vehicle companies were summoned for talks and placed under investigation for battery locking issues" are false. A CAAM representative stated that the claims circulating online regarding "eight new energy vehicle companies being summoned for talks due to battery locking issues" and "three companies being placed under investigation" lack official source and are seriously inconsistent with the facts. All industry regulatory updates and enforcement measures should be based on official information from the relevant authorities. Furthermore, CAAM hopes that new energy vehicle companies will optimize their battery management systems, maintain transparency, protect consumers right to know and choose, establish efficient after-sales communication channels, actively handle complaints and disputes related to battery locking, and safeguard their brand reputation through honest business practices.On May 9, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced via social media that he had spoken with European Council President Costa, exchanging views on Ukraines cooperation with Europe and its integration into European integration. Zelenskyy stated that he and Costa focused on joint efforts to further Ukraines integration into Europe, clarifying Ukraines commitment to becoming a full member of the EU and that preparations are underway for initiating negotiations and subsequent decisions.On May 9th, the chairman of the Iranian Parliaments Energy Committee stated that production continues uninterrupted at multiple oil fields across the country. He asserted that the actions of adversaries targeting Iranian oil tankers are entirely illegal, and that pressure on Iranian oil exports has been ineffective. There are currently no official reports of an oil spill near Kharg Island. Earlier reports indicated that satellite images suggested a large-scale oil spill near Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, with pollution covering tens of square kilometers of sea surface.

The US Dollar Rapidly Returns to the Highs - Threatening a Topside Break

Drake Hampton

Apr 24, 2022 10:48

It's been a hectic week throughout markets, and from where we sit with only a few hours remaining till the week's finish, the big story is the reintroduction of bears into US stocks.

 

Yesterday was particularly significant since statements from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell were interpreted in a fairly hawkish manner, which boosted the US Dollar as stocks continued their downward trend from the Q2 beginning.

 

The US Dollar had been threatening a pullback earlier this week, and the statements from Chair Powell and a few other Fed members have contributed to it being a very short-term move. Following a new high on Tuesday, equities fell on Wednesday, and the decline continued into Thursday morning. However, the USD low appeared around the Euro open on Thursday morning, and bulls have been hard at work since then, forcing a series of breakouts. They may not be finished yet, as buyers are already bristling at the freshly achieved yearly high.

 

The levels I examined on Wednesday morning were significant for the move because a preceding level of support coincided with Thursday's breakthrough resistance, displayed at 100.27. This resulted in a breakout to the following level of resistance at 100.57. And that was breached overnight, allowing for the next area of resistance to be built at the previously established yearly high of 101.02. Additionally, there is still bullish breakout potential as the currency is exhibiting a v-shaped reversal, which leaves the door open for additional rises that might result in another new yearly high.

 

Notably, we are rapidly nearing the FOMC's blackout period, and the bank's May rate decision is projected to be the first in recent memory to raise rates by 50 basis points. Bullish potential exists on both the fundamental and technical levels.

US Dollar Hourly Price Chart

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