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On October 15th, Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, said the Federal Reserve could still cut interest rates in October and December, but investors should be prepared for a range of outcomes as Fed Chairman Powell is trying to keep all options open. Helfstein said that reports before the government shutdown showed that inflation was driven by tariffs, housing, and utilities, areas where the Feds interest rate policy had limited impact on prices. He said this could give the Fed room to continue cutting interest rates even if overall inflation remains above target.A Taliban spokesman said Pakistani troops attacked Afghanistan on Wednesday, killing at least 12 civilians and injuring 100.Hong Kong-listed SenseTime (00020.HK) saw a sharp rise in the afternoon, now up over 4%. According to SenseTime, the company has reached a strategic partnership with Cambricon, and both parties will actively promote the integration of the latest software and hardware products.Japans 30-year government bond yield fell 5.5 basis points to 3.170%.Futures data for October 15th: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 879,807 contracts, an increase of 51,583 contracts from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,065,442 contracts, an increase of 6,997 contracts from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 161,971 contracts, an increase of 39,323 contracts from the previous trading day. Open interest was 208,411 contracts, an increase of 2,115 contracts from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 480,503 contracts, a decrease of 27,782 contracts from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,673,847 contracts, an increase of 10,040 contracts from the previous trading day.

The US Dollar Rapidly Returns to the Highs - Threatening a Topside Break

Drake Hampton

Apr 24, 2022 10:48

It's been a hectic week throughout markets, and from where we sit with only a few hours remaining till the week's finish, the big story is the reintroduction of bears into US stocks.

 

Yesterday was particularly significant since statements from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell were interpreted in a fairly hawkish manner, which boosted the US Dollar as stocks continued their downward trend from the Q2 beginning.

 

The US Dollar had been threatening a pullback earlier this week, and the statements from Chair Powell and a few other Fed members have contributed to it being a very short-term move. Following a new high on Tuesday, equities fell on Wednesday, and the decline continued into Thursday morning. However, the USD low appeared around the Euro open on Thursday morning, and bulls have been hard at work since then, forcing a series of breakouts. They may not be finished yet, as buyers are already bristling at the freshly achieved yearly high.

 

The levels I examined on Wednesday morning were significant for the move because a preceding level of support coincided with Thursday's breakthrough resistance, displayed at 100.27. This resulted in a breakout to the following level of resistance at 100.57. And that was breached overnight, allowing for the next area of resistance to be built at the previously established yearly high of 101.02. Additionally, there is still bullish breakout potential as the currency is exhibiting a v-shaped reversal, which leaves the door open for additional rises that might result in another new yearly high.

 

Notably, we are rapidly nearing the FOMC's blackout period, and the bank's May rate decision is projected to be the first in recent memory to raise rates by 50 basis points. Bullish potential exists on both the fundamental and technical levels.

US Dollar Hourly Price Chart

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