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January 30th - A depreciating dollar could cause trouble for Trump and the Federal Reserve. A significant depreciation of the dollar could put the US at risk of effectively "importing" inflation. Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, wrote, "Trumps disregard for the dollar could backfire, undermining his economic plans and causing Republicans to lose their majority in the House." On Wednesday, Powell stated that the Fed would not discuss the dollar, adding that "the Treasury is the one that regulates the currency." Ironically, however, if inflation worsens, it might be the Feds actions that help defend the dollar. Further inflation caused by a continued dollar depreciation could prevent the Fed from lowering interest rates as Trump desires, and could even lead to rate hikes.On January 30th, the Japanese government released data on the 29th showing that, driven by soaring rice prices in the domestic market, Japans private rice imports in 2025 are projected to increase more than 90 times compared to the previous year. Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that private rice imports in Japan last year reached approximately 96,800 tons, the highest since comparable data became available in 2000, roughly 95 times the import volume in 2024. The largest source of rice imports was the United States, accounting for nearly 80%. By month, July saw the highest import volume, exceeding 26,000 tons. Over the past year, Japanese rice prices have surged, repeatedly breaking records. Data from Japanese supermarket rice price monitoring shows that in the week ending January 18th, the average price of a 5kg bag of rice was 4,283 yen (approximately 194 yuan), exceeding the previous weeks average price and remaining above 4,000 yen (181 yuan) for 20 consecutive weeks.January 30th - An explosion occurred at the Tupraş Izmit oil refinery in Kocaeli Province, northwestern Turkey, on the evening of January 29th local time. The explosion took place in a gasoline storage tank area of the refinery, subsequently triggering a large fire. Thick smoke billowed from the scene, flames were visible several kilometers away, and strong tremors were felt, causing panic among local residents. Following the incident, the refinery immediately activated its emergency response plan. For safety reasons, a large number of refinery employees were evacuated. Currently, local fire and safety rescue teams are working to extinguish the fire, and the situation remains under control.January 30th - According to sources in Israel, as US President Trump "is about to make a decision on action against Iran," Israeli security agencies have recently significantly enhanced their defensive and offensive preparedness, closely monitoring regional developments and focusing on how to provide timely warnings to the public in the event of an Iranian attack. On the same day, senior IDF officials and security officials held their weekly situation assessment meeting, with the Iranian issue being a key focus of discussion. Israeli security officials stated that, given President Trumps recent statements and the increased US military presence in the Middle East, the US appears unwilling to allow the status quo regarding Iran to continue. Israel believes Trump may seek larger-scale action, and the Pentagon has developed related plans, with US Central Command continuing to increase troop deployments to the Middle East. An Israeli official stated that the US and Israeli militaries are maintaining coordination.According to Punchbowl, Republican senators plan a potential vote tonight to finalize the appropriations package and the Department of Homeland Securitys temporary funding bill—a sign that an agreement is imminent. While far from certain, this is undoubtedly a positive sign. It requires the cooperation of all 100 senators. An amendment vote will likely be necessary.

The Price of Natural Gas Falls 17% Week-over-week For The Third Week in A Row

Haiden Holmes

Jan 09, 2023 10:25

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Even after three weeks, natural gas prices continue to decline.


For the third consecutive week, the primary heating fuel in the United States fell 17%, wiping more than half of the market's total value.


On Friday, the benchmark February natural gas futures contract on the Henry Hub of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $3.71 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). This is a reduction of 10 cents, or 2.6%. The market lost precisely 17.1%, or 76.50 cents, for the week.


The fall happened because market participants ignored the weekly decline in U.S. gas inventories provided by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and instead concentrated on the projected exceptionally warm winter.


"Remarkably, prices are now sitting at a year-over-year reduction, which is an amazing swing in sentiment in such a short period of time," Gelber & Associates wrote in its daily report on natural gas.


The agency anticipated that gas prices will continue to rise if forecasts for the following weeks indicate cooler temperatures.


"In anticipation of the next gas storage data release for the week ending January 6, preliminary market projections are considerably diverse and call for a negative storage report with a storage draw between 10 and 50 billion cubic feet," Gelber noted.


"There are currently few indications that pure Arctic air will arrive during the next two weeks. Consequently, the Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) for January 6 through January 19 are the lowest in the previous five years.


According to the research, gas was "both technically and fundamentally oversold" despite the present unusually warm weather.


"Prices are anticipated to recover after the release of solidly bullish [weather] reports,"


Until this supporting news materializes, the bears will continue to control the gas market "Gelber said.

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