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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

The Japanese Yen at the Pump Again, as PMI Friday commences. Where can I buy USD/JPY?

Larissa Barlow

Apr 02, 2022 09:54

Tips 

  • The Japanese Yen resumed its unbroken downward march.

  • In a rather calm session, APAC equities were mixed.

  • Prior to the US non-farm payrolls, a series of PMIs will be released.

 

The Japanese yen fell more today, but the other G-10 currencies remained relatively stable. It was left to its own devices in the absence of any commentary/jawboning from Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials.

 

Japan's Jibun Bank PMI increased from 54.1 last month to 54.1, while China's Caixin PMI fell short of expectations at 48.1.

 

APAC equities markets remained quiet following a more than 1.5 percent decline in Wall Street's three major indices. Hong Kong and Japan ended slightly down, the Chinese mainland ended slightly higher, and the Australian share market ended flat heading into the weekend.

 

Crude oil appears to be vulnerable, with the WTI futures contract trading below US$ 100 a barrel. Brent is currently trading at roughly US$ 104.50. Gold has been relatively stable, selling about US$ 1,937 an ounce.

 

Government bond yields have increased marginally in Asia, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note nearing 2.4 percent. The carefully studied 2-10's segment of that curve momentarily dropped into negative territory and remains close to inversion at 0.005 percent.

 

Following European PMIs and the Eurozone's aggregate CPI figure, the US will receive March non-farm payrolls data, with predictions of 490,000 jobs added, according to a Bloomberg survey. Later this week, the US and Canadian PMIs will be issued, followed by the ISM manufacturing survey for the United States.

 

Additionally, a number of ECB and Fed speakers will cross the wires.

Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY

USD/JPY began the week on a strong note, surging to its highest level since 2015.

 

The August 2015 and June 2015 peaks of 125.28 and 125.86, respectively, fell barely shy of the 125.108 record. These levels may continue to act as a barrier.

 

The explosion in volatility can be observed in the breadth of the Bollinger Band based on the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), which expanded considerably throughout the move.

 

It has since returned within the band's confines, initially testing support at the 10-day SMA at 121.317, which held. If tried again, that level may provide support.

 

As expected, all short, medium, and long-term SMAs are pointing upward. A persistent move below the 10-day SMA may provide insight into whether or not that momentum is about to stall.

 

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