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The Bank of Japan will release a summary of the opinions of the deliberation committee members at its March monetary policy meeting in ten minutes.March 30th - According to the Italian newspaper *La Stampa*, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Villeroy stated in an interview that the ECB is prepared to take action to curb inflation expectations; however, it is still too early to bet on the timing of an interest rate hike. Villeroy pointed out that the war with Iran could trigger a negative supply shock, dragging down economic growth and accelerating the rise in consumer prices. He emphasized that recent news related to the conflict "has not sent a positive signal." In an interview published on Monday, he stated, "The ECB cannot control oil prices, but it has the responsibility and the ability to anchor household and business inflation expectations to our 2% medium-term inflation target. If necessary, we are prepared to act in this direction."ECB Governing Council member Villeroy: The ECB is ready to act, but it is too early to discuss the date when the ECB may raise interest rates.March 30th - According to CBS News, Jim Sims, the Democratic chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, accused President Trump of making "outright lies" about negotiations with Iran last week amid market turmoil and the ongoing war. "Last Sunday, he realized there was a serious financial crisis in the markets, so he made that up," Sims said in a program interview. Sims added, "The Iranians now realize they have the upper hand. Gasoline prices have risen by more than $1 a gallon. They realize, My God, we have huge leverage."Both WTI and Brent crude oil opened about 1% higher on Monday, currently trading at $102.57 per barrel and $107.15 per barrel, respectively.

The EUR/USD rise is getting close to 1.0200 as investors await US inflation data

Daniel Rogers

Aug 09, 2022 14:58

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The EUR/USD moves in the 1.0200 range during Tuesday's Asian session after falling from 1.0221 as traders look for fresh data. The major currency pair gained over the first part of the week but lost some of those gains by Monday's close. Recent price fluctuations, however, seem to be constrained by a lack of noteworthy data or events and a cautious attitude ahead of Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.

 

Gains in the EUR/USD the day before are shown by higher readings of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index and a drop in US Treasury yields. The primary sentiment indicator Index, however, increased in August from -26.4 to -25.2, which was projected to be the value. According to specifics, the eurozone's present state has improved from this month's lowest position since March 2021, when it was -16.5, to -16.3. The expectations index is at its lowest level since December 2008, despite a little increase to -33.8. It is still very close to that level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), in contrast, saw a daily decrease of 0.19 percent to 106.37.

 

The moderate Azione's resignation from the newly formed alliance ahead of the September elections looks to have put negative pressure on the Euro elsewhere due to Italian political worries.

 

The moderate Azione has backed out of its coalition with the Democratic Party and the +Europe party after only agreeing to do so last week. According to party leader Carlo Calendar, "the parts didn't fit." According to Reuters and Market News Publishing US, the alliance was formed in an effort to stop a more conservative government from taking office after the election on September 25.

 

Notably, gains in the EUR/USD the day before appeared to have been constrained by US President Joe Biden's displeasure of China's efforts to retake Taiwan and his censure of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taipei.

 

These actions caused the 10-year US Treasury rates, which had increased by 14 basis points (bps) the day before, to fall by around seven basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent. Wall Street also started Monday's trading day on a positive one before ending on a mixed note, albeit as of press time, S&P 500 Futures are showing minor gains.

 

Participants in the EUR/USD market may be interested in the second quarter's (Q2) US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data. Forecasts suggest that US Nonfarm Productivity may rise to -4.6% from -7.3%, while Unit Labor Costs may decrease to 9.5% from 12.6%. The news regarding Taiwan and Russia will also be important for determining direction.


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