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July 3, according to the minutes of the European Central Banks June meeting, officials emphasized the potential dangers to exporters posed by the appreciation of the euro. At that meeting, the ECB implemented its eighth interest rate cut. The minutes showed that the ECB believes that trade uncertainty has cast a shadow on the economic outlook of the 20 eurozone countries, especially the impact on investment. "Higher tariffs and the recent appreciation of the euro should put pressure on exports," the minutes said. The remarks emphasized that although the euros nearly 14% rise this year has helped to curb inflation, further gains could pull inflation below the 2% target and hurt the competitiveness of companies that sell products overseas. ECB Vice President Guindos previously said that it would be "troublesome" for the ECB to rise to 1.20.On July 3, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, at 16:13 local time on the 3rd, a 5.5-magnitude earthquake occurred in the sea near the Tokara Islands in Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan. The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued a red strong earthquake alert. Since June 21, the Japan Meteorological Agency has observed more than 1,000 earthquakes of magnitude 1 or above in the area. The Japan Meteorological Agency held an emergency press conference on the 2nd in response to the recent frequent earthquakes, saying that it is currently impossible to predict when the seismic activity will end, and reminded local residents to pay attention to safety and be prepared to evacuate at any time. The Tokara Islands are located in the southern part of Kagoshima Prefecture and consist of 12 islands, 7 of which are inhabited.On July 3, Morgan Stanley analyst Bruna Scarica said in a report that the Bank of England may accelerate the pace or magnitude of interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Scarica said that economic growth is expected to slow in the coming months due to uncertainty about possible tax increases in the autumn budget. She said the decline in economic activity may prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates faster than the market expects. Scarica said the Bank of Englands base rate is expected to fall to 3.25% from the current 4.25% by the end of the year.July 3, UBS Global Wealth Management said in a report that the United States ability to repay its debts remains intact. UBS said it expects the U.S. House of Representatives to approve Trumps economic policy agenda, even though the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will increase the national debt by $800 billion over the Houses initial version over the next decade. "But we believe that the United States still has the ability to manage its debt," UBS said. The report said the credibility of the Federal Reserve, the reserve status of the dollar, the depth and liquidity of the U.S. Treasury market, the Federal Reserves balance sheet holdings, and bank capital supervision may all help fill the deficit.European Commission: EU code of conduct to help companies implement AI rules could be in place by the end of 2025. The European Commissions commitment to AI rules remains unchanged.

The EUR/JPY struggles around 143.50 ahead of Japan's GDP and Lagarde's address

Alina Haynes

Dec 06, 2022 15:01

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After failing to break through the important 143.50 mark during the Asian session, the EUR/JPY pair is under selling pressure. Following a spectacular recovery from below 141.00 on Monday, the cross is showing signs of fatigue in its upward momentum. The cross gained traction with the release of the dismal Eurozone Retail Sales data on Monday.

 

Data for monthly retail sales in the Eurozone showed a dip of 1.8%, beating expectations of a 1.7% drop. Aside from that, annual economic data contraction came in at 2.7% as opposed to the 2.6% consensus expectation. A decline in household demand demonstrates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy tightening initiatives. In order to maintain sales, this might prompt companies to lower the prices of their products and services.

 

Although the inflation monster is enormous in comparison to the 2% inflation target, a decline in retail demand is undeniable proof that inflation will decline in the future. The ECB might be forced to raise interest rates as a result of this.

 

According to the Deccan Herald, European Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni predicted that Europe will experience a recession this winter and that growth won't resume until the following spring. His comments came the day before the Eurogroup meeting. Inflation appears to have peaked; the decline will be gradual, he continued.

 

Markets will be closely watching Christine Lagarde's speech on Thursday. She is the president of the European Central Bank. The president's address will determine the anticipated monetary policy decision made by the ECB at its December meeting.

 

The release of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will be crucial on the Tokyo front. In contrast to the previous contraction of 1.2%, the annualized decline in Japan's GDP is forecast to be 1.1%. Additionally, it is anticipated that quarterly figures will decrease by 0.3%, similar to the previous report. The Bank of Japan may need to further ease its policy if Japan's GDP falls.

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