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On October 25th, local time, the second round of ceasefire talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan began in Istanbul, Turkey. The talks were hosted by Turkey and held at an Istanbul hotel. The Pakistani delegation included the militarys director of operations and security and intelligence officials. The Afghan delegation was led by Deputy Interior Minister Rahmatullah Najeeb.On October 25th, Belgorod Oblast Governor Ilya Gladkov announced that Ukrainian armed forces had damaged the Belgorod Reservoir Dam. He stated that Ukrainian forces might attempt to attack and destroy the dam again. If this were to happen, several streets in riverbanks and settlements near Kharkiv Oblast would be flooded, impacting the lives of approximately 1,000 residents. Gladkov stated that local authorities have advised residents at risk of flooding to move to temporary relocation sites. The Ukrainian side has not yet responded to this request.On October 25th, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Villeroy warned lawmakers debating the 2026 budget that the deficit must not exceed 4.8% of economic output to ensure France can cope with its growing debt burden. The French National Assembly is currently debating a draft budget that targets 4.7% GDP growth, but Prime Minister Jean-Claude Le Cornu has said the ultimate target should be within 5%, and he is seeking a compromise with opposition lawmakers. "It is absolutely necessary to keep the deficit below 3% between now and 2029, which would imply a maximum deficit of 4.8% next year," Villeroy de Villeroy said in an interview with La Croix. He also stated that France faces the risk of "progressive suffocation" from debt and that additional deficit spending will fail to stimulate economic growth. According to calculations by the Bank of France, if debt uncertainty is reduced, a 1% reduction in the household savings rate would boost economic growth by 0.4%. However, Villeroy de Villeroy stated that the French economy has strong momentum this year and growth will be "at least" as strong as the Banks forecast of 0.7%.On October 25th, the U.S. federal government shutdown entered its 24th day. More and more federal employees forced to take unpaid leave are facing the dilemma of not being able to pay their bills or mortgages, and many are forced to queue up at food banks for assistance. Jacobs, president of the local CDC union, stated that both parties are using the livelihoods of federal employees as bargaining chips in political negotiations, and that the current chaotic situation is unprecedented.On October 25, Lizhong Group responded to investors on an interactive platform, saying that the second phase of the companys project to produce 3.6 million ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheels annually in Mexico, with an output of 1.8 million wheels, has now been put into initial production. The company is actively promoting the running-in of the production line and the release of production capacity, striving to achieve the goal of full production and sales as soon as possible.

The EUR/JPY is still firmer at 138.00 despite low rates, with inflation and the economy being the primary concerns

Alina Haynes

Aug 10, 2022 11:35

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As Tokyo begins on Wednesday, bulls on the EUR/JPY keep the previous day's gains at a two-week high while teasing the 138.00 mark. The cross-currency pair ignores Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) information in the context of falling Treasury yields by doing this. The current lull in the pair's performance may also be attributed to investors' caution ahead of July's critical inflation data from the world's major economies.

 

Japan's PPI for July climbed to 8.6% YoY versus the 8.6% market average but was in line with market expectations of 0.4% MoM. Despite this, 10-year US Treasury rates haven't changed much over the past few days, hovering around 2.79 percent.

 

According to sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) thinking, the BOJ expects prices to rise more quickly than was predicted during the July meeting. This information was reported on by MNI on Tuesday. But according to MNI, "unless it helps to accelerate wages next spring, the rise in inflation to 3% or more by the end of the year will not be sufficient to induce a change in its easy policy stance."

 

The JPY appears to be impacted elsewhere by the political unrest, indicating that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is willing to replace his cabinet. Shunichi Suzuki, the finance minister, is expected to keep his job, Reuters reports, indicating that there aren't any significant threats to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policies regarding easy credit. The same ought to provide confidence in JPY bears.

 

Concerns that the Eurozone may have more problems as a result of Russia's suspension of oil supplies should have had an effect on the EUR/JPY exchange rate, to name one important factor. Reuters reports that due to worries over transit payments, Russia has stopped sending oil through the Druzhba pipeline's southern section.

 

In contrast, EUR/JPY prices appeared to have been driven in recent weeks by expectations of further BOJ easing and low interest rates, as well as preparations for today's crucial CPI data from China, Germany, and the U.S. for July.