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On June 16th, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will replace the hospitalized Governor Kazuo Ueda, responsible for explaining the Bank of Japans latest decisions and future policy direction. Investors will closely watch Uchidas remarks to gauge his views on the future path of interest rate hikes and the Bank of Japans bond-buying policy. He faces a delicate task: to project a sufficiently hawkish stance to prevent a sharp depreciation of the yen, while simultaneously considering Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis inclination towards pro-economic monetary policies. Some economists believe that if Uchida deviates from Uedas position, it could shake the entire situation. Others say that Uchidas style is more direct, differing from Uedas subtle and unbiased communication style. According to the chief economist at Daiwa Institute of Economics, Uchida is likely to draw on his experience in policy implementation to provide a very thoughtful explanation to help market participants better understand the Bank of Japans thinking, particularly regarding the normalization process.June 16th - In SpaceXs $86.2 billion IPO, every customer of some of the largest retail brokerage firms in the US received at least one share, highlighting the initial design of the offering to allow retail investors to play a significant role. According to representatives of the companies, all eligible customers received a portion of the stock allocation after submitting stock subscription requests to platforms such as Robinhood, Charles Schwab, and Fidelity. It was reported that SpaceX ultimately allocated approximately 20% of its initial public offering proceeds to global retail investors. Sources indicated that due to demand exceeding $100 billion, many investors hoping for higher allocations were unsuccessful. On its second day of trading, SpaceXs stock price had already surged over 40%, reaching a market capitalization of $2.5 trillion.On June 16, Minmetals Resources (01208.HK) announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it had entered into a placing agreement with the placing agent, pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and allot placing shares, which will be allotted and issued pursuant to the general mandate. The placing price is HK$8.88. Assuming all placing shares are fully placed, the total proceeds from the placing are expected to be approximately HK$6,268 million, and the net proceeds from the placing (after deducting commissions and other estimated expenses) are expected to be approximately HK$6,253 million. On this basis, the net price per placing share is approximately HK$8.86. The Company intends to use the proceeds from the placing to refinance existing loans, support the development and expansion plans of existing projects, fund strategic acquisitions and investments, and supplement working capital and for general corporate purposes.On June 16th, according to foreign media reports, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed higher on Monday, with the benchmark contract rising 0.2%, reversing earlier losses. This was mainly due to excessive rainfall in some soybean-producing areas, leading to technical buying. US government officials stated that US President Trump, Vice President Vance, and the Iranian parliament speaker and head of the negotiating team have formally signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the more than three-month-long war. This caused international crude oil futures to fall sharply by about 5%, putting downward pressure on agricultural commodity markets, including soybeans. During the session, the July contract fell to a four-month low, and the November contract fell to a three-month low. However, recent excessive rainfall in parts of the Midwest has raised market concerns and helped the soybean market rebound. Reports indicate that rainfall in some parts of the US last week reached 161% of normal levels. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that soybean crushings in May totaled 208.79 million bushels, a 1.4% decrease month-over-month and below the market average expectation of 216.02 million bushels, but an 8.3% increase compared to the same period last year.On June 16th, according to foreign media reports, most soybean oil futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower on Monday, with the benchmark December contract down 0.5%, following the decline in the crude oil market. The most actively traded December contract ranged between 67.82 cents and 69.38 cents. US crude oil futures fell 5% due to the preliminary peace agreement reached between the US and Iran, putting downward pressure on Chicago soybean oil futures prices. In early trading, the July contract briefly fell to a seven-week low, and the December contract also fell to its lowest level in a month and a half. Soybean oil is a major raw material for biofuel production. However, positive US soybean oil inventory data limited the downside potential of the soybean oil market. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that as of the end of May, soybean oil inventories were 1.74 billion pounds, lower than the market expectation of 1.86 billion pounds and a five-month low.

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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