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On November 20th, Alphabet shares surged on Wednesday, posting their biggest gain in two months, as rave reviews for its newly released Gemini 3 AI model boosted investor confidence in the companys position in the evolving tech landscape. The stock rose as much as 6.9% intraday, its biggest gain since early September, and hit a new all-time high. The broader S&P 500 rose about 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 0.8%. The Gemini launch is the latest in a series of positive developments for Alphabet recently. Earlier this week, Loop Capital upgraded the stock to a "buy," and Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway revealed late last week that it had established a stake in Alphabet in the third quarter. This position represents a demonstration of the legendary investors confidence.According to the Financial Times, Warner Music (WMG.O) has reached a licensing agreement with artificial intelligence startup UDIO to power a new streaming platform based on its songs.November 20th - JPMorgan Chases trading arm stated that the longest losing streak for U.S. stocks since August has created opportunities for bargain hunters. The S&P 500 fell for four consecutive days, accumulating a 3.4% drop by Tuesdays close, as investors worried about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence rally and the Federal Reserves monetary policy path. Andrew Tyler, JPMorgan Chases global head of market intelligence, said this pullback represents a "technical shakeout" in the stock market, and the correction period may have ended. "Given that there have been no changes in the fundamentals, and our investment assumptions do not rely on the Fed easing policy, now is the time to buy on the dips," Tyler wrote in a report to clients on Wednesday.On November 20th, an institutional analysis pointed out that the minutes of the Federal Reserves October policy meeting may more clearly reveal the differences of opinion among policymakers. At that time, policymakers not only faced the predicament of a lack of official data but also had to weigh conflicting market signals, coinciding with the crucial transition period for Chairman Powell in his final months in office. The meeting last month unusually saw dissenting voices simultaneously supporting both easing and tightening monetary policies. After the Fed voted 10-2 to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, Powell acknowledged "serious disagreements" at the press conference. The interruption of official data releases before the October meeting due to the US government shutdown forced officials to rely on alternative information for assessment, which may have exacerbated their growing caution regarding further rate cuts. "A growing number of members believe that we should at least pause our observation for one cycle," Powell told reporters last month. Although government economic data releases are gradually resuming (the September non-farm payroll report will be released on Thursday), the release schedule for the missing data remains unclear, and it is uncertain what information will be available before the Feds next meeting in December.Sources say the US-proposed solution to end the conflict includes numerous provisions, such as Ukraine relinquishing some territory and weapons, and reducing the size of its armed forces. The US has indicated to Ukrainian President Zelensky that Ukraine must accept this framework and its main contents.

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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