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On September 17th, Robert Sorkin, chief U.S. economist at PGIM, stated that the latest Federal Reserve meeting signaled that the Fed could implement three rate hikes, or even more if necessary, with just a slight push. This rate hike was hawkish, signaling another rate hike this year. Of the 18 Fed officials who submitted forecasts, eight expect three rate hikes in this cycle by the end of 2027. In a report, Sorkin noted that Fed Chairman Warshs mention of the Fed "withdrawing some easing measures" suggested that he and other participants viewed Wednesdays action as merely a small step towards tightening financial conditions, implying further action is possible. Sorkin added that the risk of further Fed rate hikes remains high if inflation continues to be high.On September 17th, Futures News reported that Zhang Guoqing, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, stated in his concluding remarks that it is essential to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinpings important instructions and the requirements of Premier Li Qiangs speech, and to earnestly enhance the sense of urgency, responsibility, and mission in developing advanced manufacturing. He emphasized the need to focus on key areas and crucial aspects, deeply implement the high-quality development action plan for key industrial chains, vigorously develop next-generation intelligent manufacturing, accelerate the upgrading and integrated development of the industrial system, and solidly promote the implementation of various tasks. He also stressed the importance of better leveraging the role of market mechanisms, accelerating the construction of a high-quality standard system, continuously rectifying disorderly and irrational competition, actively helping enterprises solve practical difficulties, and striving to create a favorable ecosystem for the development of advanced manufacturing.On September 17, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the evening of the 16th, saying that Pakistan summoned the Chargé dAffaires ad interim of the Indian High Commission in Pakistan that day to lodge a strong protest against the "highly provocative and unacceptable behavior" taken by an Indian Navy vessel in Pakistans Exclusive Economic Zone on the 15th. The statement said that during the Pakistani Navys biennial routine exercises, the Indian warship took provocative actions at extremely close range towards a Pakistani warship, resulting in a contact between the two vessels. This action seriously violated the relevant agreements signed by both sides and could escalate regional tensions. The statement urged India to strictly abide by international law and bilateral agreements, especially those aimed at preventing maritime conflicts. The Chargé dAffaires ad interim of the Pakistani High Commission in India will lodge the same protest with the Indian Ministry of External Affairs.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: No comment on the Bank of Japans policy.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: The Bank of Japan is expected to work closely with the government to implement appropriate monetary policy in order to achieve the 2% price target.

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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