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On August 12th, Omdia announced that it has revised its 2026 global semiconductor market revenue growth forecast to 94.1% year-over-year, driven by strong growth in the DRAM and NAND markets due to AI demand continuing to outpace global supply capacity. Memory IC revenue is expected to account for more than 50% of total global semiconductor revenue in 2026. Meanwhile, AI demand has exceeded the current chip manufacturing and packaging capabilities of the semiconductor industry, and bottlenecks in key areas such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced packaging, and advanced process technology capacity are expected to persist until at least 2027.The local governor said drone debris struck four industrial facilities in Russia’s Krasnodar region.The local governor said that last nights drone attack on Russias Krasnodar Krai resulted in multiple deaths and injuries, including children.Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi: Canadian crude oil arrived in Japan today, the first time since the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East.On August 12th, according to the Financial Times, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Collins stated that the war in Iran has exacerbated cost-of-living pressures, leaving many in the US struggling to make ends meet. She warned that the Fed may need to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Collins noted that businesses and households in the northeastern US are being squeezed by inflation, which has exceeded the central banks 2% target for over five years. She pointed out, "I hear about [prices] in almost every conversation (with businesses)." She added, "Among low- and middle-income households, I hear more and more about the challenges they face…like struggling to make ends meet. Energy prices are really unbearable, especially in our region." Collins, who currently has no voting rights on the FOMC, supported keeping interest rates unchanged in July, considering the current level "slightly contractionary" and stating that "this would allow them to expect a gradual and sustained decline in inflation." However, she indicated that she would be willing to support a rate hike as early as September if economic data suggests the need for one. She said, "I do think that economic conditions in the coming months may require a tighter policy, in which case I am prepared to raise interest rates."

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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