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July 1st - Six sources revealed that the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering doubling the required reserve ratio for banks to hold in interest-free accounts. This move would reduce the central banks own interest expenses and mitigate the side effects of its anti-inflationary measures. The sources said the potential increase is being discussed among ECB policymakers, with a proposed minimum reserve requirement to be raised from 1% to 2% of bank customer deposits and other funding sources. This would help central banks in cash-rich countries like Germany reduce losses from paying interest on bank deposits exceeding legal requirements. Over the past decade, these excess deposits have grown to trillions of euros through bond-buying stimulus programs. This move would also absorb some excess liquidity and advance the ECBs efforts to guide banks away from free cash, an issue that will be reconsidered in this years so-called framework review. The sources said a decision on the potential measure is expected before autumn. It is understood that internal discussions within the ECB are still in their early stages, and the Governing Council has not yet formally discussed the matter.July 1st - A survey reveals that global central banks are accelerating adjustments to their foreign exchange reserve structures as US political and geopolitical risks rise. A survey of 74 central banks by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) in London shows that for the first time, "the number of central banks planning to reduce their dollar holdings over the next decade exceeds those planning to increase them," reflecting a decline in the dollars attractiveness. The report points out that geopolitical factors have become one of the main reasons influencing the willingness to invest in the dollar, coupled with rising uncertainty in US trade policy, driving a global trend of "de-dollarization." Despite this, the dollar still accounts for approximately 58% of global central bank reserves and will maintain its dominant position in the short term. Meanwhile, central bank demand for gold has increased significantly, with a record proportion of surveyed institutions planning to increase their gold holdings to hedge against geopolitical risks and financial system instability. Furthermore, the euro and the renminbi are also gaining attractiveness, receiving more attention in international trade and diversification, respectively, while some emerging market currencies are also favored. Overall, the global reserve system is showing a slow trend of diversification; the dollars dominance remains, but its marginal advantage is declining.The Federal Reserve accepted a total of $26.9 billion from 10 counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repurchase operations.Sources at the European Central Bank: Policymakers are discussing raising the minimum reserve requirement ratio for banks from 1% to 2%.European Central Bank sources say a decision on minimum reserve requirements is expected in the fall.

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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