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On August 12, Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, said: "The July CPI report barely met the threshold that would have prompted the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in September. Fed policymakers have already signaled in July that core inflation must improve between now and the September meeting in order to avoid raising interest rates."The document shows that the European Central Bank expects integration to be "challenging and enduring," noting the tensions and disagreements that exist within it.On August 12th, Karen Manna, Head of Fixed Income Investments at Federated Hermes, stated, "This expected CPI report didnt provide enough new information, nor did it give the Fed a compelling reason to change its policy direction. At the same time, the report also means that the possibility of a Fed rate hike in the fourth quarter remains. However, before taking that action, the Fed may need to see more evidence that inflation is accelerating again."On August 12, Chris Zacarelli, chief investment officer of Northlight Asset Management, said: "This CPI report was not surprising. All the data was in line with expectations. The biggest surprise was that inflation did not accelerate again. Coupled with the recent weak jobs report, this gives the Fed more time to wait and see."US-listed optical communications stocks rallied, with Lumentum up 5%, Coherent up 6%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) and Corning (GLW.N) up about 5%.

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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