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On August 28th, Goldman Sachs stated that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to approximately two-thirds of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs analysts, including Daan Struyven, indicated that driven by increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, total crude oil and petroleum product exports from the region have risen to 15-16 million barrels per day, still 7-8 million barrels per day lower than pre-conflict levels, but significantly higher than the March low of 5-6 million barrels per day. The volume of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz alone may have approached the 8-10 million barrels per day estimated by US officials. Goldman Sachs stated, "The increased number of professional carriers shutting down ship tracking signals and the increased ship-to-ship transshipment activities indicate that producers and carriers are adapting to the Middle East conflict." While large quantities of oil are being shipped out of the Persian Gulf, liquefied natural gas and refined product shipments remain low. Goldman Sachs stated, "Given the continued supply disruptions, we still believe that European gas prices and forward refined product prices have more upside potential than crude oil."August 28th - A Reuters poll shows that the vast majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive time next Wednesday, followed by another rate hike next quarter. The RBNZ implemented its first rate hike in over three years last month and hinted at further tightening of monetary policy to push inflation back to its target range of 1%-3%. Official data released subsequently showed that inflation rose to 4.1% last quarter, a two-and-a-half-year high. Economists expect inflation to remain within the target range this year, partly due to upward pressure on energy prices. The survey shows that about 90% of the 31 economists surveyed expect the RBNZ to raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% next Wednesday. HSBCs chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Paul Bloxham, said, "The main reason is that inflation is above target." Two-thirds of economists expect the RBNZ to raise rates by at least 25 basis points again next quarter, with a median forecast of 3.00% for the official cash rate at year-end.Nomura Securities lowered its target price for Bilibili (BILI.O) from $22.5 to $18.A Reuters poll shows that more than two-thirds of forecasters expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates at least once more after September, with the cash rate expected to reach 3.00% or higher by the end of the year.August 28th - Affected by Typhoon Saudel, Jiangxi and Hunan provinces experienced heavy to torrential rain, with some areas experiencing extremely heavy rain. According to the assessment of the Geological Disaster Technical Guidance Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources, the risk of geological disasters is relatively high in parts of western Jiangxi and central and southern Hunan. The Ministry of Natural Resources decided to activate a Level IV geological disaster prevention response for Jiangxi and Hunan at 10:00 AM on August 28th.

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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