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On January 23, Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that the Bank of Japans decision to hold rates steady limited short-term market reactions, but dissenting opinions and upward revisions to core inflation expectations reinforced market expectations for further monetary tightening later this year. The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.75% by an 8-1 vote, with board member Hajime Takada calling for an immediate rate hike to 1.0%. The Bank of Japan kept its core CPI forecast for fiscal year 2025 unchanged at 2.7%, while slightly raising its forecasts for the next few years. The median core CPI forecast for fiscal year 2026 was revised from 1.8% to 1.9%, while the forecast for fiscal year 2027 remained unchanged at 2.0%. More notably, the "core-core" inflation forecast, excluding fresh food and energy prices, was revised upward throughout the forecast period. These revisions further confirm the view that underlying domestic inflationary pressures remain stronger than expected. Todays statement and report still hint at the possibility of further rate hikes, and we may get more information about the timing of rate increases from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.Following the Bank of Japans interest rate decision, the yield on 2-year Japanese government bonds rose from 1.215% to 1.230%.Following the Bank of Japans interest rate decision, 10-year Japanese government bond futures fell, last down 0.17 yen to 131.43 yen.On January 23, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates unchanged on Friday. In its quarterly outlook report, the BOJ raised its economic growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 and maintained its view of a moderate economic recovery. The BOJ also raised its core consumer inflation forecast for fiscal year 2026 to 1.9% from 1.8% three months ago, stating that the risks to the economic and price outlook are roughly balanced. However, the BOJ also noted that core consumer inflation may slow to below 2% in the first half of this year. The BOJ reiterated that it will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments meet its expectations. The market is closely watching BOJ Governor Kazuo Uedas press conference for clues on when the central bank might raise interest rates again. Market volatility following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis announcement of a snap election next month has further complicated the central banks interest rate decision.On January 23, the China Air Transport Association (CATA) announced that, in order to further guide airlines to standardize their seat reservation practices and better meet the diverse and differentiated seat selection needs of passengers, under the guidance of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), CATA is organizing airlines to study and formulate the "Rules for Reserving Seats on Flights of Public Air Transport Enterprises" group standard, which aims to regulate key aspects such as the types, scope, proportions, and passenger information notification for reserved seats.

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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