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On January 15th, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice revising the "Management Measures for Key Ecological Protection, Restoration and Governance Funds," clarifying the financial support policies for integrated protection and restoration projects of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes, grasslands, and deserts, as well as ecological restoration projects of historically abandoned mines during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The revision aims to standardize the use and management of funds and promote ecosystem protection and restoration. Eligible key ecological protection, restoration and governance projects will have a three-year implementation period. Regarding central government subsidies, support for integrated protection and restoration projects of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes, grasslands, and deserts (also known as the "Mountain and Water Project") has been increased, raising the central government subsidy ratio. Projects within a province will receive a maximum subsidy of 75%, not exceeding 2 billion yuan. For the first time, cross-provincial joint applications for projects are explicitly supported, with cross-provincial projects receiving a maximum subsidy of 80%, not exceeding 2.5 billion yuan.On January 15th, Capital Economics analyst Marcel Tiliant pointed out that the upcoming Japanese general election is unlikely to lead to a significant easing of fiscal policy. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis cabinet has the highest approval rating since the early days of Shinzo Abes administration, and the ruling coalition is expected to almost certainly extend its majority. However, he questions whether this will necessarily lead to a more accommodative fiscal policy. He stated that the massive supplementary budget passed last year to reduce gasoline surcharges and electricity prices has weakened the case for further fiscal expansion. Furthermore, Japan already plans to increase spending in its regular budget for fiscal year 2026. Any additional fiscal easing would require another supplementary budget, which Japan typically only uses in response to severe natural disasters or major economic turmoil.According to foreign media reports on January 15th, data released by the Petroleum Institute of Japan (PAJ) shows that as of the week ending January 10th, Japans commercial crude oil inventories were 9.9858 million kiloliters, a decrease of 367,647 kiloliters from the previous weeks 10.3534 million kiloliters. Japans commercial gasoline inventories were 1.6824 million kiloliters, a decrease of 13,325 kiloliters from the previous weeks 1.6958 million kiloliters. Japans commercial kerosene inventories were 2.0711 million kiloliters, a decrease of 156,230 kiloliters from the previous weeks 2.2274 million kiloliters. Japans commercial diesel inventories were 1.6332 million kiloliters, a decrease of 11,847 kiloliters from the previous weeks 1.645 million kiloliters.Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast that aluminum prices will fall as new Indonesian supplies enter the market in late 2026/early 2027.Goldman Sachs: The significant price increase is largely complete, and copper prices are increasingly prone to corrections.

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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