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On September 12, officials from the U.S. engineers union stated that Boeing (BA.N) and its union reached a provisional contract agreement on Friday. This four-year proposal includes a higher general wage increase than the first proposed plan. The first plan was overwhelmingly rejected by members of the Society of Professional Engineers in Aerospace Engineering (SPEEA) in a vote on August 21. If approved, approximately 17,000 members in SPEEAs professional and technical divisions would receive a 10% pay rise on October 16, followed by a 4% annual increase between 2027 and 2030, plus performance-based increases. Ben Nimgurt, Boeings vice president of production engineering and chief competency engineer, stated in a statement, "Our final contract addresses the primary concerns raised by employees and the SPEEA negotiating team, including immediate pay rises and a larger, guaranteed pay pool." According to the union, the latest proposal also includes adjustments to remote work policies and overtime restrictions for professional division members.On September 12th, a research report from Huatai Securities stated that the unexpectedly strong core inflation in August makes a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve a "must-have," further increasing the credibility risk of a September rate hike. Following the much stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls in August and the escalating tensions in the Middle East pushing oil prices above $100, the August CPI data has become the core variable for the market pricing in whether the Fed will raise rates in September. The core CPI inflation in August rose more than expected, and the core services ex-housing component, which the Fed focuses on, did not show further signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, concerns about high oil prices due to low inventory levels, the transmission of AI price increases to downstream industries, and a new round of tariffs in certain regions could all disrupt the process of declining US inflation. Looking ahead, CPI data may push neutral voting members, represented by Walsh, to turn hawkish at the September FOMC meeting, reducing the resistance to a September rate hike due to internal divisions within the Fed; August data also cleared obstacles to a rate hike. If Walsh fails to deliver on his hawkish promises made at the August Jackson Hole meeting in September, the Feds credibility will be more challenged, and long-term Treasury yields will be more difficult to control.September 12 - The Democratic Republic of Congos Ministry of Health released an epidemic report on the 11th, showing that the countrys current Ebola outbreak has resulted in a total of 7,022 confirmed cases, including 3,398 deaths and 1,671 recoveries.Artificial Intelligence: 1. DeepSeek conducts gray-scale testing of AI voice dialogue, supporting four voice timbres. 2. The Kimi K2.8 Preview model from The Dark Side of the Moon is fully launched on Kimi Code, with overall performance approaching that of K3. 3. OpenAI confirms that its AI agent, currently under testing, launched a cyberattack on RubyGems in May of this year. 4. DeepSeek will continue to provide V4 Pro API call services: originally scheduled to be taken offline on September 14, the billing method remains unchanged. 5. Anthropic is reportedly in talks with Nvidia to become an anchor investor in its IPO, with Nvidia potentially investing up to $10 billion. Integrated Circuits (Chips): 1. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reiterated that the company can achieve 70% year-on-year growth next year. 2. South Korean media reports that a new round of semiconductor contract manufacturing agreement negotiations between Qualcomm and Samsung Electronics has stalled due to disagreements on pricing. New Energy Vehicles: 1. Nine departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Intelligent Connected New Energy Vehicle Industry". Other: 1. Tianbing Technology: The failure of the maiden flight test of the Tianlong-3 Y1 carrier rocket has been resolved. 2. The Cyberspace Administration of China, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Digital Villages (2026-2030)".On September 12th, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal on Friday, OpenAI agent developers participated in a previously undisclosed cyberattack that overwhelmed RubyGems, the official manager of the Ruby language. The report stated that OpenAI confirmed its AI agents in testing used RubyGems to access the internet as part of a harmless task to obtain publicly available information during training. This incident occurred in May of this year, two months before another incident involving OpenAI agents and the AI platform HuggingFace. Security researchers dubbed the attack "GemStuffer," in which agents created a batch of RubyGems accounts every two to three minutes and downloaded hundreds of web pages collected from the internet. The scale of the test was so large that RubyGems was forced to suspend new account registrations for four days.

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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