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More than 100 companies, including Nestlé and Uber (UBER.N), are calling on governments to make electrification a core part of their economic strategies.June 22 – At a press conference held today by the Legislative Affairs Commission of the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC), it was announced that the 68th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th NPC has decided that the 23rd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th NPC will be held in Beijing from June 23 to 26. The meeting recommended that the 23rd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th NPC: continue to deliberate on the draft revisions to the Trademark Law, the Certified Public Accountants Law, the Public Interest Litigation Law for Procuratorates, the Antarctic Activities and Environmental Protection Law, and the National Fire and Rescue Personnel Law; deliberate on the motion submitted by the NPC Financial and Economic Affairs Committee to review the draft revision of the Government Procurement Law; and deliberate on the motions submitted by the State Council to review the draft revisions to the Bidding and Tendering Law, the Financial Law, and the Law of the Peoples Bank of China.June 22 – The Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) announced on June 21 that the total number of confirmed Ebola cases in the country has risen to 1,003, with 254 deaths. The latest data released by the DRC Ministry of Health on social media platforms shows that 100 people have recovered, and 365 patients are currently in isolation or hospitalized. The countrys current contact tracing rate is 58%, lower than the health departments target of 95%. Relevant departments are intensifying contact tracing and investigation efforts, strengthening community outreach and mobilization, and improving case treatment and testing capabilities.The SC crude oil futures contract fell by 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 503.40 yuan per barrel.1. Market plunges: Precious metals traded weakly in the morning, with Shanghai silver falling over 5%, Shanghai gold over 3%, and platinum and palladium over 4%, indicating a concentrated sell-off by long positions accumulated at previous highs. 2. Fed shows hawkish stance: The Feds June decision kept interest rates unchanged, but new Chairman Warsh removed forward guidance indicating a tendency to cut rates in his debut meeting. Furthermore, the dot plot showed that half of the officials expect at least one rate hike this year, leading to an earlier-than-expected rate hike and a stronger dollar and US Treasury yields. 3. Geopolitical negotiations take a dramatic turn: After the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, the first round of formal negotiations suddenly changed. Due to Israels continued attacks on Lebanon and threatening remarks from Trump, the Iranian delegation walked out of the meeting and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing risk aversion and liquidity concerns to severely impact the market. 4. Fund Holdings Trends: Investment demand showed mixed performance. Holdings in the worlds largest gold ETF (SPDR) increased slightly to 1020.5 tons weekly, while holdings in the worlds largest silver ETF (iShares) decreased by 22.51 tons weekly, indicating a roughly equal increase and decrease in speculative funds. 5. Everbright Futures View: Current gold prices have largely priced in hawkish expectations, and marginal negative momentum is weakening. With falling oil prices, if inflation expectations remain stagnant, it may drive a short-term market correction due to easing concerns about tightening, allowing gold to maintain its bottom-range consolidation. 6. Nanhua Futures View: With geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, strong AI stocks, and rising expectations of interest rate hikes, precious metals are in a short-term weak position. However, in the medium to long term, the Peoples Bank of my country maintains its strategy of buying gold on dips, and the medium-term support logic for central bank gold purchases has not weakened significantly. 7. Shanghai Zhongqi Futures View: The pullback in gold prices is a result of the Federal Reserves policy shift towards hawkishness, changes in communication style, and a convergence of macroeconomic data. With interest rate hike expectations fully priced into the market, short-term adjustment pressures are expected. However, easing tensions in the Middle East are conducive to stabilizing inflation expectations, and precious metals will continue to exhibit two-way volatility. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data from Everbright Futures, Nanhua Futures, Shanghai Zhongqi Futures, etc., and is for reference only, not investment advice.)

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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