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1. According to SMM, the JFR union in Moquegua, Peru, has begun a strike, which is expected to cause delays in shipments from mines owned by Quellaveco and Grupo Mexico. Furthermore, the strike could spread to the port of Matarani in Arequipa, which, if it does, will further impact the shipping schedules of other major mines such as Las Bambas, Cerro Verde, and Constancia. Whether the strike has extended to Arequipa is currently unconfirmed. 2. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said on Wednesday that inflation expectations and inflation risks have both declined in recent weeks; he also reiterated the Feds commitment to reducing inflation to its 2% target. "In the initial weeks of this period, inflation expectations have fallen, and inflation risks have decreased accordingly," Warsh said. 3. Data shows that Venezuelan oil exports through trading companies fell to approximately 775,000 barrels per day. Venezuelan oil exports to the United States increased to 630,000 barrels per day in June, while exports to India fell to 277,000 barrels per day in June. 4. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh reiterated that he will not provide "forward guidance" on upcoming interest rate policy, marking a significant shift for the Fed. "Were going to forge a new path," Warsh said. "I hope that when we meet again in four weeks, well have a full internal debate." 5. U.S. ADP employment rose by 98,000 in June, the lowest increase since March, below market expectations of 118,000. 6. Three sources said Wednesday that OPEC+ oil-producing countries will agree to further increase their August production target at their meeting on Sunday, a move that would increase oil supply as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens and oil prices fall. The sources said the August production target would increase by approximately 188,000 barrels per day, the same increase as in June and July. 7. The EIA report showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, fell by 3.775 million barrels to 408 million barrels in the week ending June 26, a decrease of 0.92%, the lowest level since the week ending September 28, 2018. U.S. crude oil inventories fell for the 10th consecutive week. Crude oil inventories on the U.S. West Coast fell to a record low.Market news: The EU has postponed the meeting of the Carbon Market Reform Committee to July 17.SC crude oil futures contract 2608 hit a new intraday low, with the decline widening to 3%, and was last quoted at 446.5 yuan/barrel; the trading volume was approximately 7.444 billion yuan, with nearly 1,000 lots added to open interest during the day, indicating increased market volatility.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that refinery utilization rates on the U.S. East Coast fell to their lowest level since April 2025 in the latest week.July 1st - U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June as the surge in input costs driven by war eased. According to data released Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index fell 0.7 points to 53.3, still near a four-year high. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and the latest data shows the sector is experiencing its longest expansion since 2022. The pace of increase in raw material purchase prices slowed significantly in June. The ISMs price sub-index fell 9.1 points to 73, the largest monthly drop since July 2022; this followed a sharp decline in oil prices after a provisional agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

The Devil Is In The Details: Gold Analysis - Federal Reserve Minutes

Larissa Barlow

Apr 07, 2022 10:33

Analyses of Federal Reserve Minutes 

While both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference provide market participants with information about the FOMC's updated and revised monetary policy, it is the release of the minutes that provides investors with significantly greater clarity and understanding. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

 

The Federal Reserve issued the official minutes from its March FOMC meeting today, providing insight into the central bank's current plans to begin unwinding its balance sheet assets. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Reserve will add around $4.6 trillion to its balance sheet by purchasing $120 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion) and US Treasury securities ($80 billion), bringing their total to just over $9 trillion.

 

According to Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, the Fed intends to employ a mix of interest rate rises and a quick run-off of the balance sheet to bring US monetary policy closer to neutral later this year.

 

However, the minutes released today imply that the Federal Reserve will unwind around $3 trillion over the next three years, reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet to $6 trillion. While the Fed appears to be indicating a quick runoff of its balance sheet, the reality is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be nearly $2 trillion larger than it was prior to the epidemic.

 

"Participants continued their discussion on plans to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in a manner consistent with the methodology outlined in the Committee's Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet, announced following its January meeting."

 

Additionally, the minutes stated, "While no decision was made regarding the Committee's plan to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at this meeting, participants agreed that significant progress had been made on the plan and that the Committee was well positioned to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet's size as soon as after the conclusion of its upcoming May meeting."


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