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December 4th - For many emerging market currencies in Asia, the widely anticipated December rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be timely. The Feds easing of monetary policy will help alleviate downward pressure on the Indian rupee and provide a breather for weaker currencies such as Indonesia, South Korea, and the Philippines. This week, the rupee fell below 90 against the dollar for the first time, while the South Korean won has fallen by more than 4% this quarter. Wee Khoon Chong, Asia Pacific market strategist at BNY Mellon, said, "Further easing by the Fed is likely to support Asian currencies overall." He stated that regional currencies with strong growth momentum and sound fiscal policies, such as the South Korean won, are likely to perform best. On the other hand, he noted that the Indian rupee still faces negative factors including high US tariffs and downside risks to growth, while the Philippine peso will be dragged down by the central banks easing bias. TS Lombard strategists Daniel von Ahlen and Andrea Cicione wrote, "Now is the time to go long on Asian currencies."Korean chip stocks were led by Hanmi Semiconductor, with its share price falling 4.4% to 116,100 won.December 4th - According to Reuters, three Japanese government sources said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to raise interest rates in December, and the government is expected to tolerate this decision. The sources said the BOJ appears prepared to raise its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, a signal echoed by Governor Kazuo Ueda in his speech on Monday. This would be the first rate hike since January. One source said, "If the BOJ wants to raise rates this month, let them decide. Thats the governments position." He added that a rate hike this month is almost certain. Ueda stated on Monday that the BOJ would consider the "pros and cons" of a rate hike this month, indicating a high probability of a rate increase at its December 18-19 meeting. These comments have led the market to price in an approximately 80% probability of a December rate hike, although some market participants are watching how the dovish government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi might react. Market focus may shift to the BOJs wording regarding the ultimate extent to which it will raise rates, a topic on which Ueda remains ambiguous.December 4th - Hong Kong Investment Corporation (HKIC) released its 2024 annual report today, showing that as of June 30, 2025, every HK$1 invested by HKIC has attracted over HK$6 in long-term market capital. In the past two years, two of its portfolio companies have already listed in Hong Kong, and more than ten others submitted listing applications earlier this year. Among these companies, five were already unicorns before their IPOs, forming a "tiered reservoir" and achieving a virtuous cycle. HKIC CEO Chen Jiaqi stated that in 2025, the company will further deepen its involvement and progress, including leading new investment rounds, to help these companies seize market opportunities and "go global."Sources say the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December, and the Japanese government is likely to tolerate it.

The Bank of England may raise interest rates ahead of schedule! The pound rushed higher and then fell back, subject to a strong dollar

Oct 26, 2021 11:01

On Monday (October 11), the British pound gave up most of the intraday gains against the U.S. dollar. It is currently rising slightly, mainly suppressed by the strong U.S. dollar.


Bank of England officials hinted at the upcoming interest rate hike over the weekend and provided a good intraday boost for the pound on the first day of the new trading week. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that unless policymakers take action, there will be a period of extremely damaging inflation. In addition, Sanders, one of the toughest members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, said that investors were right to bet on raising interest rates in advance. He said that as inflationary pressures in the UK economy increase, it is necessary to prepare for a "significantly early" interest rate hike.

CME interest rate futures trading shows that the November contract pricing estimates that the probability of a rate hike next month is 20%, higher than the 12% estimated last week. The pricing of December futures reflects the probability of a 45% rate hike at that time.

"At present, there are more and more people speculating that the Bank of England will tighten policy before the Fed," analysts at ING said. The central bank is actually warning about the second round of high inflation.

The pound against the U.S. dollar once climbed to a two-week high, near the 1.3670-75 area, although it is difficult to continue this trend in the context of a mild recovery in demand for the U.S. dollar. The September non-agricultural employment data released on Friday was disappointing, but it was offset by a sharp upward revision in the data last month, and reiterated the Fed’s expectation that the Fed will soon begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases. The market also seems to have increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate hike in 2022.

Concerns about the recent surge in crude oil prices will trigger inflation, prompting market speculation that the Fed may tighten policy ahead of schedule. The combined effect of these factors pushed the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield to a four-month high, breaking the 1.60% mark last Friday. This, in turn, continues to boost the US dollar and inhibits the subsequent strong and positive trend of the pound against the US dollar, at least for now.

At the same time, concerns about a comeback of stagflation (high inflation, low growth) have reduced investor interest in high-risk assets. This is evident from the weakening of the stock market, which is seen as another positive factor for the safe-haven dollar. Therefore, before making a new bullish bet on the GBP/USD combination and establishing a position for any further appreciation, it is prudent to wait for a strong follow-up.

The UK will not release any major economic data that will affect market trends, and the US currency market will remain closed on Columbus Day. This further allowed investors to stay on the sidelines and limit the gains of the GBP/USD pair, which instead prompted some people to sell at a higher level. Market participants are now looking forward to the UK’s monthly employment details, which are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, when there will be some meaningful trading opportunities.

From a technical point of view, the pound's upward momentum has slowed down significantly, and it has fallen into a shock trend in the short term. Against the background that the US dollar index is expected to continue to strengthen, the pound may resume its downward trend.

The lower support levels focus on 1.3600, 1.3567, and 1.3531, and the upper resistance levels focus on 1.3663, 1.3722, and 1.3751.

(The British pound against the U.S. dollar daily chart)

At 20:50 GMT+8, the British pound was quoted at 1.3626 against the U.S. dollar.