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July 3, according to the minutes of the European Central Banks June meeting, officials emphasized the potential dangers to exporters posed by the appreciation of the euro. At that meeting, the ECB implemented its eighth interest rate cut. The minutes showed that the ECB believes that trade uncertainty has cast a shadow on the economic outlook of the 20 eurozone countries, especially the impact on investment. "Higher tariffs and the recent appreciation of the euro should put pressure on exports," the minutes said. The remarks emphasized that although the euros nearly 14% rise this year has helped to curb inflation, further gains could pull inflation below the 2% target and hurt the competitiveness of companies that sell products overseas. ECB Vice President Guindos previously said that it would be "troublesome" for the ECB to rise to 1.20.On July 3, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, at 16:13 local time on the 3rd, a 5.5-magnitude earthquake occurred in the sea near the Tokara Islands in Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan. The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued a red strong earthquake alert. Since June 21, the Japan Meteorological Agency has observed more than 1,000 earthquakes of magnitude 1 or above in the area. The Japan Meteorological Agency held an emergency press conference on the 2nd in response to the recent frequent earthquakes, saying that it is currently impossible to predict when the seismic activity will end, and reminded local residents to pay attention to safety and be prepared to evacuate at any time. The Tokara Islands are located in the southern part of Kagoshima Prefecture and consist of 12 islands, 7 of which are inhabited.On July 3, Morgan Stanley analyst Bruna Scarica said in a report that the Bank of England may accelerate the pace or magnitude of interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Scarica said that economic growth is expected to slow in the coming months due to uncertainty about possible tax increases in the autumn budget. She said the decline in economic activity may prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates faster than the market expects. Scarica said the Bank of Englands base rate is expected to fall to 3.25% from the current 4.25% by the end of the year.July 3, UBS Global Wealth Management said in a report that the United States ability to repay its debts remains intact. UBS said it expects the U.S. House of Representatives to approve Trumps economic policy agenda, even though the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will increase the national debt by $800 billion over the Houses initial version over the next decade. "But we believe that the United States still has the ability to manage its debt," UBS said. The report said the credibility of the Federal Reserve, the reserve status of the dollar, the depth and liquidity of the U.S. Treasury market, the Federal Reserves balance sheet holdings, and bank capital supervision may all help fill the deficit.European Commission: EU code of conduct to help companies implement AI rules could be in place by the end of 2025. The European Commissions commitment to AI rules remains unchanged.

The AUD/NZD Exchange Rate Approaches 1.1000 Following a Slight Decline in Kiwi Inflation to 6.9 Percent

Larissa Barlow

Apr 21, 2022 09:40

The AUD/NZD pair is seeing a surge in demand following the release of Statistics New Zealand's annual inflation figure of 6.9 percent. The figures came in somewhat lower than expected at 7%, but the likelihood of another boost in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) remain high (RBNZ). Additionally, the quarterly kiwi Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 1.8 percent from a prior reading of 2%.

 

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr increased the OCR by 50 basis points last week (bps). This was the RBNZ's fourth straight rate hike, bringing the OCR to 1.5 percent. The central bank stated in a statement that this was the largest rate hike in more than two decades, with the sole objective of minimizing inflation concerns. A larger-than-expected move by the RBNZ will provide the central bank with additional flexibility in future interest rate decisions. It's worth remembering that the RBNZ has been one of the most aggressive central banks in recent years, rapidly moving the grounded rates to neutral.

 

On the Australian front, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) officials have not identified any price pressures that would compel the institution to consider rate hikes. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the release of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on Friday. A preliminary estimate of 57.8 is observed, compared to the earlier print of 57.7.

AUD/NZD 

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