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January 16th - According to sources, some Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers believe that an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike is possible, with a high probability of an April rate increase, as the continued depreciation of the yen could exacerbate already widening inflationary pressures. BOJ policymakers face the daunting task of pushing up years of persistently low borrowing costs amid increasing global headwinds and economic pressures, just as the Japanese economy is beginning to recover from prolonged deflation. The central bank just raised interest rates to a 30-year high in December and is expected to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting. However, sources say many BOJ policymakers believe there is room for further rate hikes, with some not ruling out action in April, which would be earlier than the mainstream market expectation (i.e., a rate hike in the second half of the year). Sources indicate that if sufficient evidence emerges that Japan will continue to achieve its 2% inflation target, some within the BOJ are not ruling out the possibility of early action.Sources say that some within the Bank of Japan believe that interest rate hikes may come sooner than the market expects.On January 16th, according to the Financial Times, the first sale of Venezuelan crude oil by the United States went to a company whose senior oil trader had made substantial political donations to Trumps re-election campaign and attended a White House meeting last week. John Addison, a senior trader at Vitol, donated approximately $6 million to a political action committee supporting Trumps re-election. Last Friday, he attended a high-level meeting with energy industry executives at the White House along with Ben Marshall, head of Vitols U.S. operations. During the event, Addison promised Trump that Vitol would secure the best possible price for Venezuelan oil for the U.S. Vitol stated that Addisons donation was a personal act and did not represent the companys position. Another global commodities trading giant, Trafigura, also purchased $250 million worth of Venezuelan oil, a fact confirmed by two sources familiar with the matter. According to Open Secrets data, the companys total lobbying expenditure in the U.S. in 2024 and 2025 is estimated at $525,000. A U.S. Department of Energy official stated that Vitol and Trafigura, both among the worlds largest energy traders, were selected because they "have the capability and willingness to quickly complete the initial transactions." The official added, "As sales continue to progress, the Department of Energy will continue to evaluate all available options."On January 16th, it was announced at a press conference jointly held by multiple departments regarding the "Interim Measures for the Management of Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles" that my country is about to enter a phase of large-scale retirement of power batteries. According to estimates by relevant research institutions, the annual amount of waste power batteries generated in 2030 will exceed 1 million tons. Wen Xuefeng, Deputy Director of the Solid Waste and Chemicals Department of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, stated that power batteries contain not only metal resources such as nickel, cobalt, manganese, and lithium, but also toxic and harmful substances such as fluorine compounds. If not properly recycled, they will not only pollute the environment but also waste resources. The newly released management measures clarify requirements such as "integrated vehicle and battery scrapping," strengthening the management of power battery recycling and utilization through legal means, which will effectively regulate the behavior of all participating entities.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed concern about the recent yens exchange rate.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Threatening to Move Higher

Florala Chen

Oct 26, 2022 16:08

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Tuesday's session saw a very minor increase in the price of the S&P 500 E-mini contract as we approached the 50-Day EMA. The market seems to be attempting some kind of breakout as a result, but ultimately I believe this is just a "fade the rally" type of scenario since we are in the middle of earnings season and, quite frankly, most guidance is likely to be at best subpar. The Federal Reserve may reiterate the need to tighten monetary policy in the coming days, but Wall Street gamblers may attempt to push prices higher in the lead-up to the next Federal Reserve meeting in November.


In any case, I'm watching for symptoms of weariness so I can start shorting them, but I haven't exactly seen them. Although I still believe there is significant resistance around the 3900 level and again at the 200-Day EMA, which is slightly over the 4000 level, the market may break above the 50-Day EMA.


I'll be looking to short this market if the daily candlestick moves much to the upside, but for the time being, I believe that trading in this kind of very volatile market is only challenging during the bear market rally.


I'll keep seeing it through that lens because it wouldn't take much to cross the wires and divide the market once again. The greatest method to trade your market is to just wait for an opportunity, since you do sometimes see significant rallies. At the moment, I'm doing just that.