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On March 21st, HSBC stated that the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its March meeting, hinting at a "wait-and-see" approach. Persistent inflation and rising geopolitical risks have created uncertainty for the Fed. We maintain our previous view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in 2026 and 2027. Inflation risks have increased, particularly due to soaring energy prices, while labor market risks have slightly decreased. Energy price volatility and geopolitical risks should continue to support safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar.Iraq says Iranian natural gas supplies have resumed, with a daily supply of 5 million cubic meters.On March 21, Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated during a visit to an oil refinery in Minas Gerais state on March 20 that the escalating conflict in the Middle East necessitates that Petrobras and the government "establish strategic oil reserves" to cope with any potential consequences of the conflict. He warned that if the war continues, and if the United States were to destroy the Strait of Hormuz, the oil crisis "will only worsen." Previously, on March 12, the Brazilian government announced the exemption of import and sales taxes on diesel fuel, while imposing a 12% export tax on crude oil to mitigate the spillover risks from the Middle East situation.An Iranian military spokesman said the United States and Israel are targeting civilian and passenger ships in the Gulf region and warned of retaliatory action.Egypts Ministry of Petroleum: Egypt will pay $1.3 billion in outstanding payments to international oil companies by the end of June.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Recover From Extreme Oversold Conditions

Lorna Divakar

Dec 22, 2022 16:15

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the fact that it seems as if we are approaching the 50-Day EMA, the S&P 500 has increased a little in the E-mini contract during the trading session on Wednesday. In the end, I believe that this market is attempting to reach some kind of balance between this point and the year's conclusion.


 After all, this is the year's worst period for liquidity, and there have undoubtedly been many worries lately. Even if Wall Street was waiting for a giveaway, Jerome Powell has been sure to underline the concept that the Federal Reserve was going to remain tight for a while.


A significant flush down might occur if we close below the hammer from the Tuesday session, but I don't believe it will happen straight away. Since this market has been overdone, in my opinion, we are merely rebounding until we see an exhaustion candle. I won't hesitate to start selling on that exhaustion candle since, to be honest, I believe it would be a really bearish indicator. In the end, I do believe that we will decline because, very honestly, a severe recession is imminent and it is clear that Wall Street is now beginning to concur with all of the forecasts.


To consider this a prospective market worth purchasing, we would need to at the very least knock out the top of the 200 day EMA. I just don't see how that could occur, therefore I believe you are watching for a chance to go short once again. You just don't know; it may happen in January or it might happen right now.

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