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On September 17th, Robert Sorkin, chief U.S. economist at PGIM, stated that the latest Federal Reserve meeting signaled that the Fed could implement three rate hikes, or even more if necessary, with just a slight push. This rate hike was hawkish, signaling another rate hike this year. Of the 18 Fed officials who submitted forecasts, eight expect three rate hikes in this cycle by the end of 2027. In a report, Sorkin noted that Fed Chairman Warshs mention of the Fed "withdrawing some easing measures" suggested that he and other participants viewed Wednesdays action as merely a small step towards tightening financial conditions, implying further action is possible. Sorkin added that the risk of further Fed rate hikes remains high if inflation continues to be high.On September 17th, Futures News reported that Zhang Guoqing, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, stated in his concluding remarks that it is essential to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinpings important instructions and the requirements of Premier Li Qiangs speech, and to earnestly enhance the sense of urgency, responsibility, and mission in developing advanced manufacturing. He emphasized the need to focus on key areas and crucial aspects, deeply implement the high-quality development action plan for key industrial chains, vigorously develop next-generation intelligent manufacturing, accelerate the upgrading and integrated development of the industrial system, and solidly promote the implementation of various tasks. He also stressed the importance of better leveraging the role of market mechanisms, accelerating the construction of a high-quality standard system, continuously rectifying disorderly and irrational competition, actively helping enterprises solve practical difficulties, and striving to create a favorable ecosystem for the development of advanced manufacturing.On September 17, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the evening of the 16th, saying that Pakistan summoned the Chargé dAffaires ad interim of the Indian High Commission in Pakistan that day to lodge a strong protest against the "highly provocative and unacceptable behavior" taken by an Indian Navy vessel in Pakistans Exclusive Economic Zone on the 15th. The statement said that during the Pakistani Navys biennial routine exercises, the Indian warship took provocative actions at extremely close range towards a Pakistani warship, resulting in a contact between the two vessels. This action seriously violated the relevant agreements signed by both sides and could escalate regional tensions. The statement urged India to strictly abide by international law and bilateral agreements, especially those aimed at preventing maritime conflicts. The Chargé dAffaires ad interim of the Pakistani High Commission in India will lodge the same protest with the Indian Ministry of External Affairs.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: No comment on the Bank of Japans policy.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: The Bank of Japan is expected to work closely with the government to implement appropriate monetary policy in order to achieve the 2% price target.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Have Volatile Opening for the Year

Skylar Shaw

Jan 04, 2023 14:27

微信截图_20230104142425.png

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

In order to crash through the 50-Day EMA in the E-mini futures market at the start of the trading day on Tuesday, the S&P 500 gapped, but it later pulled back to close that gap. In the end, there probably will be support there, but I also believe there will be a lot of pushback there as well. I believe we continue to see a lot of loud activity since we have been congregating in the general area.


It's feasible that we may decline to the 3700 level or perhaps the 3600 level if we were to breach below the 3800 level. However, if we do break out to the upside, there is even more resistance close to the 200-Day EMA, which is located just at the 4000 level. I believe that at this moment, the only thing you can bet on is a lot of choppy activity. All else being equal, this market should end up being a good selling opportunity even if it rallies since there is also a downtrend line.


The Friday employment report will very probably have a significant impact on where we go next because, to put it bluntly, if it comes in hot enough, it will make people fear that the Federal Reserve will start tightening again. Beyond that, we need to be concerned about a global downturn and, obviously, profits that are going to plunge. In fact, given the continued high levels of market volatility and pessimism, it is extremely possible that the markets will see significant losses in the next year.

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