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Spot gold and silver rebounded quickly, currently trading at $4,864/oz and $83.40/oz respectively.10-year US Treasury futures fell 1 point, and 30-year futures fell 7 points.February 2nd - With Kevin Warshs nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, market focus has abruptly shifted from short-term interest rates to the Feds $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its fundamental role in the market. Zach Griffiths, Head of Investment Grade Bonds and Macro Strategy at CreditSights, noted, "He has consistently been a vocal critic of the Feds balance sheet expansion." Warsh hopes to fundamentally reverse the trend of asset expansion and push for other reforms. However, this move will face complex challenges, directly impacting not only long-term interest rates but also the core markets upon which large global financial institutions rely for daily interbank lending. If policymakers agree to shrink the balance sheet, the transmission effect in the market could lead to a conflict between the Feds and the governments goals of reducing long-term borrowing costs. This could force the Treasury or other US agencies to become more deeply involved in market management, which will face even greater challenges given the continued rise in total borrowing demand and the already over $30 trillion national debt. PGIM points out that if Warshs predictions are true, then the pressure to regulate will shift to the Treasury.February 2nd - On February 1st local time, Mexican President Sinbaum announced plans to send humanitarian aid to Cuba, including food and other basic necessities, while simultaneously seeking to resume oil shipments to Cuba "through all diplomatic channels" despite US restrictions. On the evening of January 31st, US President Trump publicly stated that he had asked Sinbaum to halt oil shipments to Cuba. On the same day, Mexican Foreign Minister De la Fuente responded that Mexico would not suspend humanitarian aid to Cuba.February 2nd - On February 1st local time, US President Trump, answering reporters questions about Iran at Mar-a-Lago, stated his hope that "a deal can be reached." Responding to Iranian Supreme Leader Khameneis warning that a US strike would trigger a regional war, Trump said that if a deal cannot be reached, "then well see if he (Khamenei) is right." Trump emphasized to reporters that the US has deployed "the worlds largest and most powerful ships" in the region. Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that Iran "remains confident" of reaching an agreement with the US on the nuclear issue.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Have Volatile Opening for the Year

Skylar Shaw

Jan 04, 2023 14:27

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

In order to crash through the 50-Day EMA in the E-mini futures market at the start of the trading day on Tuesday, the S&P 500 gapped, but it later pulled back to close that gap. In the end, there probably will be support there, but I also believe there will be a lot of pushback there as well. I believe we continue to see a lot of loud activity since we have been congregating in the general area.


It's feasible that we may decline to the 3700 level or perhaps the 3600 level if we were to breach below the 3800 level. However, if we do break out to the upside, there is even more resistance close to the 200-Day EMA, which is located just at the 4000 level. I believe that at this moment, the only thing you can bet on is a lot of choppy activity. All else being equal, this market should end up being a good selling opportunity even if it rallies since there is also a downtrend line.


The Friday employment report will very probably have a significant impact on where we go next because, to put it bluntly, if it comes in hot enough, it will make people fear that the Federal Reserve will start tightening again. Beyond that, we need to be concerned about a global downturn and, obviously, profits that are going to plunge. In fact, given the continued high levels of market volatility and pessimism, it is extremely possible that the markets will see significant losses in the next year.