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1. Sudden deterioration of geopolitical situation: The Middle East conflict continues to escalate, with Trump initially stating that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was "over" and reinstating the naval blockade, even issuing new threats of war regarding the Iranian situation. Although he subsequently attempted to de-escalate the situation, the risk to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has increased dramatically as the conflict reignites. 2. Hawkish first minutes from the new Fed chairman: The minutes of the June policy meeting chaired by new Chairman Warsh revealed significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the economic outlook. Most officials emphasized that "upside risks to price stability remain high" and tended to remove language suggesting easing from previous decisions; a few officials even stated that there were reasons to raise interest rates last month. 3. Closely matched interest rate path forecasts: Officials identified the AI investment boom, high commodity prices (Middle East conflict), and tariffs as the three major risks to sticky inflation. Post-meeting forecasts showed that 9 out of 19 officials expected at least one rate hike this year (6 of whom expected two), while another 9 expected rates to remain unchanged or be cut; Chairman Warsh declined to submit his personal forecast. If inflation remains high, almost all participants agreed that further interest rate hikes and policy tightening are necessary. 4. Everbright Futures View: Renewed tensions in the Middle East have caused short-term market trading to revert to the "inflation and interest rate hike" logic, further impacting gold. Golds current bottoming-out range is unstable. With geopolitical factors and Fed policy repeatedly intertwined, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears; caution is advised. Close attention should be paid to the US June CPI data on July 14-15 and Warshs first congressional hearing. 5. Jinyuan Futures View: Trumps new threats against Iran have escalated the situation again. Coupled with the hawkish Fed meeting minutes significantly strengthening expectations of interest rate hikes, precious metals are weakening under the dual pressure of these negative factors, and the downward trend remains unchanged. (The above content is compiled from publicly available information from Everbright Futures, Jinyuan Futures, etc., and is for reference only, not investment advice.)Germanys seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be released in ten minutes.July 9th - The Commercial Times published a blog post today (July 9th) reporting that Nvidias next-generation Rosa CPU is expected to use TSMCs A16 process and feature rear-side power supply technology. Compared to the N2P process, TSMCs A16 process can increase chip density by up to 1.1 times. The core change is the introduction of Super Power Rail rear-side power supply technology, which moves the power supply network to the back of the wafer, thereby improving power efficiency, reducing IR drop, and freeing up front-side wiring space for signal interconnects.July 9th - According to Barclays benchmark forecast, the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged until the end of 2027. However, Barclays strategists still believe the risks lean towards raising rates. The strategists stated that the latest Fed policy meeting minutes highlighted participants heightened concerns about inflation and the risk of persistently high inflation. The strategists noted, "While participants expect inflation to decline, they believe the risk of persistently high inflation remains, partly due to strong demand for AI-related investments." At the same time, participants remain divided on the future direction of policy.Hong Kong stocks continued to decline in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index down 1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.79%. Tech stocks retreated, with Bilibili (09626.HK) falling more than 5%, and Baidu (09888.HK), Xiaomi Group (01810.HK), and Meituan (03690.HK) all falling more than 3%.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Give Up Early Gains

Cory Russell

Dec 29, 2022 14:37


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Initially attempting to rise during Wednesday's trading session, the S&P 500 eventually gave up gains and lost momentum due to the thin markets' lack of current interest. The 3800 level underneath should be sustained, but if we decline below that, it would be possible to slide considerably lower, maybe as low as the 3700 level.


At this point, rallies ought to be fading, therefore the 3900 level and the 50-Day EMA can serve as a ceiling from which to resume shorting. When signs of fatigue start to surface, they will be pounced on, and I won't think twice about shorting them. Because of this, I believe that the market will continue to be negative, although it's possible that unreliable money managers may attempt to pad their books towards the end of the year. This is a frequent occurrence since they must at least demonstrate to their customers that they possess the "proper stocks."


It appears like Wall Street will sometimes need a reminder that the Federal Reserve is dead serious, which is an issue that the Federal Reserve itself caused by coddling traders for 14 years, so I believe it's just a matter of time until we continue to go lower. In light of this, I am prepared to short this market gradually during rallies and when it begins to show symptoms of tiredness. However, at this time of year, I am not expecting for large swings, so you must see this through the lens of short-term trading.

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