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On July 13th, Daiwa issued a research report predicting that Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) will raise its AI capital expenditure forecast, which will put pressure on its mid-term earnings. Meanwhile, while growth in the gaming business has slowed due to a high base, its market share growth momentum remains strong. The bank lowered its 2026-2028 earnings per share forecasts for the company by 1% to 6% to reflect the impact. Daiwa significantly raised its 2026 AI capital expenditure forecast for Tencent from RMB 108 billion to approximately RMB 181 billion to reflect the companys stronger commitment to AI investment and improved chip supply. Although higher depreciation will drag down its near-to-mid-term earnings performance, it is also expected to drive faster expansion of the cloud business and monetization of AI demand, which is expected to be released from the second half of 2026. Daiwa maintains its "Buy" rating on Tencent, but lowers its target price from HKD 700 to HKD 670.On July 13th, SenseTime (00020.HK) officially released and fully open-sourced its daily-new SenseNova-Vision unified visual model, marking a significant upgrade to the visual capabilities of SenseTimes daily-new large model system. The core innovation of SenseNova-Vision is to make vision a native capability of the general-purpose basic model, completely integrating it into the large model system. All classic visual tasks such as object detection, image segmentation, depth prediction, and 3D reconstruction are thus natively unified.The Jordanian military said it intercepted and shot down four missiles that entered its airspace from Iran.July 13 – As a $1.8 trillion rally that propelled Asian chipmakers to the ranks of the worlds largest companies begins to reverse, investors are cutting back on bets on Asian chip stocks, raising concerns about their excessive weighting in emerging market indices. Funds such as Fidelity International and BlackRock are expressing concern about the sustainability of the bull run in stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Over the past six months, the combined market capitalization of these three companies has nearly doubled, and their combined weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is now approximately 29%, exceeding the weighting of most single countries. Caroline Shaw, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, stated that the high concentration of the index, coupled with the significant increase in leveraged bets on South Korean chip stocks amplifying price volatility, are "worrying signs." In the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the weighting of these three stocks is currently almost three times the total weighting of all Indian stocks, and SK Hynix alone has a weighting exceeding the combined weighting of Brazil and South Africa. Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, said the firm is “happy to take profits at this stage” and reduce its overweight position in emerging market stocks relative to benchmarks due to the volatility in some large chip and memory stocks.According to the Financial Times, serious divisions within the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee make it more difficult for the bank to rebuild its credibility after five years of inflation exceeding its target.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Give Up Early Gains

Cory Russell

Dec 29, 2022 14:37


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Initially attempting to rise during Wednesday's trading session, the S&P 500 eventually gave up gains and lost momentum due to the thin markets' lack of current interest. The 3800 level underneath should be sustained, but if we decline below that, it would be possible to slide considerably lower, maybe as low as the 3700 level.


At this point, rallies ought to be fading, therefore the 3900 level and the 50-Day EMA can serve as a ceiling from which to resume shorting. When signs of fatigue start to surface, they will be pounced on, and I won't think twice about shorting them. Because of this, I believe that the market will continue to be negative, although it's possible that unreliable money managers may attempt to pad their books towards the end of the year. This is a frequent occurrence since they must at least demonstrate to their customers that they possess the "proper stocks."


It appears like Wall Street will sometimes need a reminder that the Federal Reserve is dead serious, which is an issue that the Federal Reserve itself caused by coddling traders for 14 years, so I believe it's just a matter of time until we continue to go lower. In light of this, I am prepared to short this market gradually during rallies and when it begins to show symptoms of tiredness. However, at this time of year, I am not expecting for large swings, so you must see this through the lens of short-term trading.

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