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On March 27th, former Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Kazuo Monma stated on Friday that given the unprecedented challenges the Middle East conflict presents to interest rate setting, the BOJ is likely to warn in its upcoming quarterly report that underlying inflation could fluctuate sharply. Monma pointed out that before the US-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28th, the BOJ seemed prepared to raise interest rates as early as March or April, but the subsequent surge in oil prices and the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz made this path uncertain. He stated that as hopes for a swift end to the war fade, the BOJ now faces significant uncertainty regarding how this oil shock will impact global and domestic economic growth, inflation dynamics, and corporate wage setting. These variables are likely to prompt the central bank to warn of two major risks in its upcoming quarterly report: the Middle East conflict leading to a contraction in demand and impacting the economy, and the supply shock exacerbating inflationary pressures.The yield on Japans 30-year government bonds rose 14 basis points to 3.66%.Indonesian Energy Minister: Indonesias fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas supply is secure.On March 27, Iranian sources reported that Irans Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Illavani, sent a letter to the UN protesting the assassination of the Iranian Parliament Speaker and Foreign Minister. He stated that reports of the two men being temporarily removed from the US and Israels purge lists confirm the existence of assassination threats, adding that "this threat stems from a criminal mentality; their open use of rules of engagement and stupidity is deeply concerning." In the letter, Illavani expressed his hope that UN Security Council members would "immediately take note of the reports published in the media." These reports indicate that a framework for assassinating senior Iranian officials does exist and has been systematically implemented since the start of the conflict.According to the Financial Times, the UAE is working with Bahrain to push for a UN Security Council resolution authorizing a future special task force.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Give Up Early Gains

Cory Russell

Dec 29, 2022 14:37


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Initially attempting to rise during Wednesday's trading session, the S&P 500 eventually gave up gains and lost momentum due to the thin markets' lack of current interest. The 3800 level underneath should be sustained, but if we decline below that, it would be possible to slide considerably lower, maybe as low as the 3700 level.


At this point, rallies ought to be fading, therefore the 3900 level and the 50-Day EMA can serve as a ceiling from which to resume shorting. When signs of fatigue start to surface, they will be pounced on, and I won't think twice about shorting them. Because of this, I believe that the market will continue to be negative, although it's possible that unreliable money managers may attempt to pad their books towards the end of the year. This is a frequent occurrence since they must at least demonstrate to their customers that they possess the "proper stocks."


It appears like Wall Street will sometimes need a reminder that the Federal Reserve is dead serious, which is an issue that the Federal Reserve itself caused by coddling traders for 14 years, so I believe it's just a matter of time until we continue to go lower. In light of this, I am prepared to short this market gradually during rallies and when it begins to show symptoms of tiredness. However, at this time of year, I am not expecting for large swings, so you must see this through the lens of short-term trading.