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On August 12th, a research report from CICC stated that the commodity market is likely to continue to diverge. AI data centers, grid expansion, and energy transition will continue to support demand for copper and aluminum. Given the continued strong supply constraints, non-ferrous metals offer the dual benefits of improved liquidity and AI-driven physical investment, and we recommend an overweight position. Energy commodities such as oil still possess hedging value, but future volatility may increase; we suggest maintaining current positions and avoiding chasing highs.On August 12th, a research report from CICC stated that two narratives that previously suppressed gold prices are being disproven: First, global liquidity has not truly entered a tightening cycle. With declining inflation and slowing growth in the US, economic fundamentals support a looser monetary policy. Warshs "hawkish in name but dovish in practice" stance suggests that Fed reforms may open up room for future interest rate cuts. Second, "de-dollarization" is not over. While Warshs balance sheet reduction policy objectively helps repair the dollars credibility, this policy is subject to multiple constraints from financial markets and politics, resulting in high uncertainty regarding its future implementation. Meanwhile, the structural erosion of the dollars credibility by high debt, high deficits, and policy uncertainty may be difficult to reverse. Global central banks net gold purchases rebounded to 289 tons in the second quarter, a 62% year-on-year increase and a record high for the second quarter, reflecting deep-seated concerns about the dollar among global central banks. Reserve diversification will continue to support gold demand in the medium to long term. As global liquidity becomes more relaxed, upward pressure on real interest rates and the dollar will ease, potentially allowing gold to regain the dual support of liquidity and monetary system diversification. We believe the gold bull market is not over, and the window for re-allocating after the previous correction has opened. We recommend continuing to overweight gold.Japans broad money supply liquidity rate was 4.4% year-on-year in July, down from 4.5% in the previous month.August 12th - According to a report by the Wall Street Journal on the 11th, an internal investigation by the U.S. Department of Defense revealed that a series of U.S. military strikes against Yemen in 2025 will result in hundreds of civilian casualties. The report states that this marks the first time the Trump administration has officially acknowledged the scale of civilian casualties caused by its airstrikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen.Japans M3 money supply annual rate was 1.4% in July, down from 1.50% in the previous month.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Give Up Early Gains

Cory Russell

Dec 29, 2022 14:37


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Initially attempting to rise during Wednesday's trading session, the S&P 500 eventually gave up gains and lost momentum due to the thin markets' lack of current interest. The 3800 level underneath should be sustained, but if we decline below that, it would be possible to slide considerably lower, maybe as low as the 3700 level.


At this point, rallies ought to be fading, therefore the 3900 level and the 50-Day EMA can serve as a ceiling from which to resume shorting. When signs of fatigue start to surface, they will be pounced on, and I won't think twice about shorting them. Because of this, I believe that the market will continue to be negative, although it's possible that unreliable money managers may attempt to pad their books towards the end of the year. This is a frequent occurrence since they must at least demonstrate to their customers that they possess the "proper stocks."


It appears like Wall Street will sometimes need a reminder that the Federal Reserve is dead serious, which is an issue that the Federal Reserve itself caused by coddling traders for 14 years, so I believe it's just a matter of time until we continue to go lower. In light of this, I am prepared to short this market gradually during rallies and when it begins to show symptoms of tiredness. However, at this time of year, I am not expecting for large swings, so you must see this through the lens of short-term trading.

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