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On September 18th, arguably the biggest surprise in the Federal Reserves latest interest rate decision was the single dissenting vote. Despite unfavorable circumstances, Fed Chairman Powell managed to achieve a near-unanimous consensus at this weeks monetary policy meeting. Newly appointed Governor Milan was the only vote against the 25 basis point rate cut. Milan, a close ally of Trump, was sworn in as an interim Fed governor on Tuesday. His objection was based on support for a larger rate cut—something Trump has been demanding for months. However, Governors Waller and Bowman, who had voiced dovish dissent in July, did not do so again this time. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk said, "Its clear that Powell has successfully herded the cats together."Meghan Robson, head of U.S. credit strategy at BNP Paribas: "Todays Fed decision suggests the Fed will prioritize growth over inflation and may allow the economy to "overheat" until the inflation path becomes clearer. We believe this policy approach should currently support credit spreads."Syrian President: Security agreement with Israel is a "necessary move" and Syrias airspace and territorial integrity should be respected.Syrian president: Security talks with Israel may produce results in the "coming days."Scott Kimball, chief investment officer of the fixed income team at Loop Asset Management: "The Feds 12-month inflation forecast is 2.6%, which shows that it is more tolerant of inflation and may no longer be its primary focus. Implementing a looser policy on the basis of fiscal stimulus should support lower-quality corporate credit spreads."

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Worry About Rates

Jimmy Khan

Feb 22, 2023 16:31


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini contract started overnight trading poorly and hasn't been making a lot of sense. Yet, the contract's high level of volatility persists, and as a result, downward pressure is beginning to build. It's important to note that the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA are located immediately below. Given that they are both rather flat, there may not actually be any momentum.


As it is slightly above the psychologically and structurally significant 4000 level, this may pave the way for a support level to develop in that approximate area. You must keep in mind that earnings season is now underway because it could cause the market to fluctuate. The moving averages and the psychologically significant 4000 level, if we were to break down below them, might drive the futures market and the index itself significantly lower.


It thus creates the chance of a decline down to the 3900 level, where we had experienced some buying pressure. Following that, there comes the 3800 level, which is considerably more significant and will get a lot of attention. When it comes to whether or not the market can save itself, we would be in that general area hanging on by a thread.


The previous two candlesticks have undoubtedly looked pretty bearish, and I think that may have some momentum built up in it. If the market were to flip around and bounce, then it may try to move towards the 4200 level. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which are released on Wednesday, will undoubtedly also be relevant. This ought to provide traders a good indication of what the Federal Reserve members discussed during the meeting and whether or not there is an overall hawkish mindset or if there are any ice cracks appearing. This will have a significant impact on the market.

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