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August 28th - Analysts and investors believe this speech will be an early test, observing whether Warsh is willing to adapt to an environment of growing concern about his policy plans. The Federal Reserve has now failed to achieve its inflation target for 65 consecutive months, and progress over the past year and a half has been very limited. Early in his tenure, Warsh repeatedly reiterated his commitment to achieving the Feds inflation target, but consistently failed to specify how, which has already sparked calls for the Fed to adjust its policy focus. EY-Parthenons chief economist, Gregory Daco, stated that Warshs previous statements have been very vague, and "people are worried about the Feds independence," as well as whether Warsh is reluctant to discuss potential interest rate hikes to avoid angering Trump and his administration. Daco said, "He has to be more careful in his communication, not giving the impression that the Fed might be coordinating and cooperating more with the Treasury, nor giving the impression that he is influenced by the presidents demands for rate cuts… These are not good signs for any new Fed chair." Warsh must carefully navigate his statements. Saying too much could trigger irreversible expectations, or at least make people uncomfortable; saying too little could damage credibility and hand over influence to other members of the Federal Reserve who can provide more detailed arguments. In either case, market volatility is likely.The Chicago PMI for August will be released in ten minutes.August 28 - The Russian Ministry of Defense announced today (August 28) the successful test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile.According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Iran and Russia have eased travel restrictions for business travelers and truck drivers.Federal Reserves Hamack: We dont know much about the economic impact of the balance sheet.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Worry About Rates

Jimmy Khan

Feb 22, 2023 16:31


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini contract started overnight trading poorly and hasn't been making a lot of sense. Yet, the contract's high level of volatility persists, and as a result, downward pressure is beginning to build. It's important to note that the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA are located immediately below. Given that they are both rather flat, there may not actually be any momentum.


As it is slightly above the psychologically and structurally significant 4000 level, this may pave the way for a support level to develop in that approximate area. You must keep in mind that earnings season is now underway because it could cause the market to fluctuate. The moving averages and the psychologically significant 4000 level, if we were to break down below them, might drive the futures market and the index itself significantly lower.


It thus creates the chance of a decline down to the 3900 level, where we had experienced some buying pressure. Following that, there comes the 3800 level, which is considerably more significant and will get a lot of attention. When it comes to whether or not the market can save itself, we would be in that general area hanging on by a thread.


The previous two candlesticks have undoubtedly looked pretty bearish, and I think that may have some momentum built up in it. If the market were to flip around and bounce, then it may try to move towards the 4200 level. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which are released on Wednesday, will undoubtedly also be relevant. This ought to provide traders a good indication of what the Federal Reserve members discussed during the meeting and whether or not there is an overall hawkish mindset or if there are any ice cracks appearing. This will have a significant impact on the market.

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