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Futures News, October 30th: Crude oil prices improved, and news in the fuel oil market improved slightly. However, gasoline and diesel shipments remained sluggish, downstream demand was weak, and traders mainly purchased small orders to meet immediate needs. Refinery shipments were flat, and the market is expected to remain stable with a narrow range today.Samsung Electronics shares rose more than 3%.Samsung Electronics: The Taylor plant in the United States will begin operation in 2026.Samsung Electronics: The semiconductor market is expected to remain strong due to continued investment momentum in artificial intelligence in the fourth quarter.On October 30th, a research report from CICC stated that under the "natural scenario," their calculations indicate the Federal Reserve still has room for three more rate cuts in this round, corresponding to long-term interest rates of 3.8% to 4.0%. Currently, the difference between the US real interest rate and the natural interest rate is 0.8%. Three more rate cuts of 25 basis points each would bring financing costs and investment returns "even," corresponding to a nominal neutral interest rate of 3.5%. Assuming a term premium of 30-50 basis points, this corresponds to a 10-year US Treasury yield of 3.8% to 4.0%. The short-term rate cut path will depend more on the government shutdown and data, such as when the shutdown will be resolved to release new employment data. The subsequent path will also be influenced by inflation trends. In contrast, the new Fed chairman and the Feds independence are the biggest variables in the rate cut path next year, potentially increasing policy uncertainty after the second quarter of 2026.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Worry About Rates

Jimmy Khan

Feb 22, 2023 16:31


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini contract started overnight trading poorly and hasn't been making a lot of sense. Yet, the contract's high level of volatility persists, and as a result, downward pressure is beginning to build. It's important to note that the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA are located immediately below. Given that they are both rather flat, there may not actually be any momentum.


As it is slightly above the psychologically and structurally significant 4000 level, this may pave the way for a support level to develop in that approximate area. You must keep in mind that earnings season is now underway because it could cause the market to fluctuate. The moving averages and the psychologically significant 4000 level, if we were to break down below them, might drive the futures market and the index itself significantly lower.


It thus creates the chance of a decline down to the 3900 level, where we had experienced some buying pressure. Following that, there comes the 3800 level, which is considerably more significant and will get a lot of attention. When it comes to whether or not the market can save itself, we would be in that general area hanging on by a thread.


The previous two candlesticks have undoubtedly looked pretty bearish, and I think that may have some momentum built up in it. If the market were to flip around and bounce, then it may try to move towards the 4200 level. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which are released on Wednesday, will undoubtedly also be relevant. This ought to provide traders a good indication of what the Federal Reserve members discussed during the meeting and whether or not there is an overall hawkish mindset or if there are any ice cracks appearing. This will have a significant impact on the market.

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