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September 4th - Following stronger-than-expected US August jobs data, the market has increased its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16th. LSEG data shows that the market is currently pricing in a 61% probability of a Fed rate hike, while before the data release, the market expected a 50% probability each for a rate hike and maintaining the current rate. Data shows that the US added 162,000 jobs in August, three times the 53,000 predicted by economists. Julys jobs data was also revised upwards.Iranian military spokesman: We will take preemptive action wherever we feel threatened.September 4th - On Friday, after the release of U.S. August jobs data, stock index futures tracking the S&P 500 turned lower, as the data showed that the U.S. economy added more jobs in August than expected. The U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding economists expectations of 56,000. Dow Jones E-mini futures fell 152 points, or 0.28%; S&P 500 E-mini futures fell 17.25 points, or 0.22%; and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures rose 20.75 points, or 0.07%.International oil prices fluctuated at low levels, with WTI crude oil falling by more than 1% and Brent crude oil falling by more than 1%. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market conversion prices of crude oil between domestic and international markets.September 4th - US job growth in August exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged, suggesting the US labor market may be stronger than previously thought. According to data released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, exceeding all economists expectations, based on upward revisions to the previous two months employment figures. The non-farm payroll growth was primarily driven by a rebound in employment in the leisure and hospitality industry and increases in government sector employment. Meanwhile, the construction and manufacturing sectors also recorded strong job growth. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. This report shows that the US labor market is withstanding the uncertainty brought about by the Iran war and inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve officials may see this report as evidence supporting a rate hike; however, the US CPI data to be released next week will be key to the Feds interest rate decision later this month.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Worry About Rates

Jimmy Khan

Feb 22, 2023 16:31


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini contract started overnight trading poorly and hasn't been making a lot of sense. Yet, the contract's high level of volatility persists, and as a result, downward pressure is beginning to build. It's important to note that the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA are located immediately below. Given that they are both rather flat, there may not actually be any momentum.


As it is slightly above the psychologically and structurally significant 4000 level, this may pave the way for a support level to develop in that approximate area. You must keep in mind that earnings season is now underway because it could cause the market to fluctuate. The moving averages and the psychologically significant 4000 level, if we were to break down below them, might drive the futures market and the index itself significantly lower.


It thus creates the chance of a decline down to the 3900 level, where we had experienced some buying pressure. Following that, there comes the 3800 level, which is considerably more significant and will get a lot of attention. When it comes to whether or not the market can save itself, we would be in that general area hanging on by a thread.


The previous two candlesticks have undoubtedly looked pretty bearish, and I think that may have some momentum built up in it. If the market were to flip around and bounce, then it may try to move towards the 4200 level. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which are released on Wednesday, will undoubtedly also be relevant. This ought to provide traders a good indication of what the Federal Reserve members discussed during the meeting and whether or not there is an overall hawkish mindset or if there are any ice cracks appearing. This will have a significant impact on the market.

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