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June 4th - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 30th were 225,000, higher than the expected 213,000 and the revised previous weeks 212,000, marking the highest level since the first week of February. The four-week moving average was 214,750, higher than last weeks 208,250. Continuing jobless claims were 1,777,000, slightly lower than the expected 1,780,000. The rise in initial jobless claims indicates a weakening employment situation, but it remains relatively low and stable. Continuing jobless claims declined slightly. It should be noted that continuing jobless claims data has a one-week lag, so next weeks data will correspond to this weeks initial jobless claims data. U.S. stocks traded mixed in pre-market trading, with Dow Jones futures up 1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures down more than 1%. U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.039%, down 4.5 basis points; the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.455%, down 3.8 basis points; and the 30-year Treasury yield at 4.960%, down 3.0 basis points.OPEC Secretary General: Investment in the oil industry should not be affected by one-off events.OPEC Secretary General: We continue to see strong growth in oil demand, and we will not change our forecasts.June 4th - The World Gold Council reports that some physical gold markets appear to be weakening, with discount trading emerging in India and South Korea, and sporadic selling signs in the Japanese market. Global gold ETF inflows were weak in May. With the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, the possibility of official gold swaps or sales cannot be ruled out. The biggest short-term risk may come from the energy market. Oil prices are dominating market focus, inflation expectations, and bond yield trends. If declining inventories drive a significant rise in energy prices, it could initially push up bond yields, boost the dollar, and prolong golds current weakness, before the market gradually reflects its longer-term impact.Saudi Energy Minister: The world needs stability in the energy sector.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Worry About Rates

Jimmy Khan

Feb 22, 2023 16:31


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini contract started overnight trading poorly and hasn't been making a lot of sense. Yet, the contract's high level of volatility persists, and as a result, downward pressure is beginning to build. It's important to note that the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA are located immediately below. Given that they are both rather flat, there may not actually be any momentum.


As it is slightly above the psychologically and structurally significant 4000 level, this may pave the way for a support level to develop in that approximate area. You must keep in mind that earnings season is now underway because it could cause the market to fluctuate. The moving averages and the psychologically significant 4000 level, if we were to break down below them, might drive the futures market and the index itself significantly lower.


It thus creates the chance of a decline down to the 3900 level, where we had experienced some buying pressure. Following that, there comes the 3800 level, which is considerably more significant and will get a lot of attention. When it comes to whether or not the market can save itself, we would be in that general area hanging on by a thread.


The previous two candlesticks have undoubtedly looked pretty bearish, and I think that may have some momentum built up in it. If the market were to flip around and bounce, then it may try to move towards the 4200 level. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which are released on Wednesday, will undoubtedly also be relevant. This ought to provide traders a good indication of what the Federal Reserve members discussed during the meeting and whether or not there is an overall hawkish mindset or if there are any ice cracks appearing. This will have a significant impact on the market.

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