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February 4th - Sergei Koletsky, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Ukraines state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz, announced on February 4th that the first shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States for 2026 has arrived in Ukraine. Koletsky stated that nearly 100 million cubic meters of gas arrived at the LNG receiving terminal in Poland at the end of January and has been injected into the Ukrainian gas transmission system. He indicated that Ukraine plans to import up to 1 billion cubic meters of LNG from the United States throughout 2026. The next shipment of US LNG has been contracted and is scheduled for delivery between February and March.February 4th - The pound rose to its strongest level in five months against the euro ahead of the Bank of Englands interest rate decision on Thursday. The market widely expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged. Lee Hardman of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group stated in a report that recent data showing a strengthening UK economy has prompted market participants to postpone their expectations for the next rate cut. "In the absence of immediate triggers for further rate cuts, the Bank of England is likely to remain cautious about further rate cuts at the beginning of this year."On February 4th, Innovent Biologics announced that in 2025, the company achieved total product revenue of approximately RMB 11.9 billion, maintaining a strong growth momentum of approximately 45% year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company achieved total product revenue of approximately RMB 3.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of over 60%.February 4th - Holger Schmieding of Berenberg Bank stated in a report that the European Central Bank (ECB) may raise key interest rates starting in mid-2027, with economic growth this year expected to be slightly above the long-term trend of 1.2%. Following projected growth of 1.3% this year, Eurozone economic growth is expected to accelerate to a cyclical peak of 1.5% in 2027, primarily driven by the gradual effects of German fiscal stimulus measures. This will boost German business and consumer confidence and, to a lesser extent, benefit some of its neighboring countries. Against this backdrop, the ECB could raise key interest rates to a neutral level of approximately 3% by early 2028, allowing economic growth to fall back to near its trend rate in 2028.The US January ADP employment figures will be released as scheduled tonight at 9:15 PM, providing the market with the latest clues about the US job market. This data is collected and released by the private US agency ADP. Due to the previous brief government shutdown, the release dates for non-farm payrolls, initial jobless claims, and job openings data were pending. The US Department of Labor, responsible for releasing these data, fully resumed normal operations on February 4th and will reschedule the release times.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Worry About Rates

Jimmy Khan

Feb 22, 2023 16:31


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini contract started overnight trading poorly and hasn't been making a lot of sense. Yet, the contract's high level of volatility persists, and as a result, downward pressure is beginning to build. It's important to note that the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA are located immediately below. Given that they are both rather flat, there may not actually be any momentum.


As it is slightly above the psychologically and structurally significant 4000 level, this may pave the way for a support level to develop in that approximate area. You must keep in mind that earnings season is now underway because it could cause the market to fluctuate. The moving averages and the psychologically significant 4000 level, if we were to break down below them, might drive the futures market and the index itself significantly lower.


It thus creates the chance of a decline down to the 3900 level, where we had experienced some buying pressure. Following that, there comes the 3800 level, which is considerably more significant and will get a lot of attention. When it comes to whether or not the market can save itself, we would be in that general area hanging on by a thread.


The previous two candlesticks have undoubtedly looked pretty bearish, and I think that may have some momentum built up in it. If the market were to flip around and bounce, then it may try to move towards the 4200 level. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which are released on Wednesday, will undoubtedly also be relevant. This ought to provide traders a good indication of what the Federal Reserve members discussed during the meeting and whether or not there is an overall hawkish mindset or if there are any ice cracks appearing. This will have a significant impact on the market.

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