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Futures Market News, September 11th: SC crude oil rose 9.04%, currently trading at 837.9 yuan/barrel. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose 7.62%, currently trading at 5649 yuan/ton. Fuel oil rose 7.71%, currently trading at 4417 yuan/ton. Asphalt rose 4.86%, currently trading at 5547 yuan/ton.On September 11th, TD Securities analysts stated that Japans economic growth is exceeding its potential, necessitating faster interest rate hikes to prevent overheating. TD Securities noted that as the economy enters a turning point, the Bank of Japan cannot risk falling behind and predicts it will abandon its gradual tightening strategy. Price pressures are also accelerating, and the labor market is expected to tighten further. Against this backdrop, TD Securities anticipates approximately quarterly rate hikes, unlike the Bank of Japans usual semi-annual pace. The firm forecasts 25 basis point hikes next week and in December, followed by similar hikes at the April, July, and October meetings in 2027, raising the target rate to 2.25%. TD Securities indicated that a key consideration for the Bank of Japans path will be fiscal policy; an expansionary fiscal policy could prompt earlier rate hikes or extend the tightening cycle to 2028.Barclays: The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in December 2026.September 11th - The "Global Mining Development Report 2026" shows that Chinas new round of strategic action for mineral exploration breakthroughs has yielded significant results, with substantial increases in mineral resource reserves. China ranks first in the world in reserves of 14 minerals, achieving multi-dimensional expansion in oil and gas exploration, with deep-sea and deep-ground areas becoming new growth poles. Simultaneously, Chinas scale of mineral production and smelting processing remains the worlds largest, and its dominant position in the industrial chain continues to be consolidated. Particularly in the smelting and processing sector, China ranks first in the world in the production of over 30 metallurgical products, and accounts for approximately 50% of the global production of 17 mineral products. This signifies that China is not only a major producer of mineral resources but also a leading supplier and key player in the global smelting and processing industry.On September 11th, the national average weekly LNG ex-factory transaction price was 6116.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 212.41 yuan/ton, or 3.6%, compared to last week. On the supply side, due to a reduction in feedstock gas supply, most inland LNG plants had low LNG levels this week, resulting in tight overall inventory. While the pace of ship arrivals slowed this week, the profit margin for offshore gas shipments expanded under high gas prices, leading to relatively active shipments from receiving terminals. Overall, the market supply remained tight. On the demand side, some reserve warehouses in the central and eastern regions conducted restocking operations, boosting demand in surrounding markets. Coupled with the recent positive coal market, transportation gas demand received some support. However, after upstream companies continued to maintain prices, end-user resistance gradually increased, and market trading activity became subdued in the later part of the week. Regarding prices, the contraction in upstream gas supply and high cost support led to a strong price-holding mentality among LNG plants this week; offshore gas prices rose in tandem with domestic gas price increases. Looking ahead to next week, some end-user stockpiling measures have spurred upstream price-supporting sentiment, and LNG prices may rise slightly. It is expected that domestic LNG prices may rise slightly next week, with the regional average weekly transaction price likely to be 6130.22 yuan/ton. The daily price range is likely to be between 6120-6170 yuan/ton. Industry players are watching the bidding situation for feedstock gas directly supplied to factories by PetroChina in the second half of the month.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Worry About Rates

Jimmy Khan

Feb 22, 2023 16:31


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini contract started overnight trading poorly and hasn't been making a lot of sense. Yet, the contract's high level of volatility persists, and as a result, downward pressure is beginning to build. It's important to note that the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA are located immediately below. Given that they are both rather flat, there may not actually be any momentum.


As it is slightly above the psychologically and structurally significant 4000 level, this may pave the way for a support level to develop in that approximate area. You must keep in mind that earnings season is now underway because it could cause the market to fluctuate. The moving averages and the psychologically significant 4000 level, if we were to break down below them, might drive the futures market and the index itself significantly lower.


It thus creates the chance of a decline down to the 3900 level, where we had experienced some buying pressure. Following that, there comes the 3800 level, which is considerably more significant and will get a lot of attention. When it comes to whether or not the market can save itself, we would be in that general area hanging on by a thread.


The previous two candlesticks have undoubtedly looked pretty bearish, and I think that may have some momentum built up in it. If the market were to flip around and bounce, then it may try to move towards the 4200 level. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which are released on Wednesday, will undoubtedly also be relevant. This ought to provide traders a good indication of what the Federal Reserve members discussed during the meeting and whether or not there is an overall hawkish mindset or if there are any ice cracks appearing. This will have a significant impact on the market.

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