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Futures commentary by Everbright Futures: Precious metals are experiencing significant volatility. With two trading days remaining overseas during the New Years holiday, short-term speculation warrants caution. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that most participants believed further interest rate cuts might be appropriate if inflation gradually declines as expected; most supported a December rate cut, with those supporting it generally citing increased downside risks to employment in recent months; most believed rate cuts would help prevent a deterioration in the labor market, while some officials pointed to the risk of rising inflation. A Federal Reserve survey indicates that respondents expect net purchases of approximately $220 billion in the first 12 months after the start of the purchase program. Geopolitically, the Russia-Ukraine conflict shows signs of further deterioration, with Saudi Arabias airstrike on Mukalla port and the situation in Yemen escalating further; safe-haven demand may influence gold prices.On December 31, the National Committee of the Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) held a New Years tea party at the CPPCC Auditorium. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the Peoples Republic of China, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, delivered an important speech. In his speech, he pointed out that 2025 will be an extraordinary year. We have overcome difficulties and worked hard to successfully achieve the main goals of economic and social development. my countrys economy has forged ahead under pressure, developing in a new and superior direction, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality. The growth rate is expected to reach around 5%, continuing to rank among the worlds leading major economies, with the total economic output expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan. Significant achievements have been made in scientific and technological innovation, the construction of a modern industrial system has continued to advance, and new-quality productive forces have developed steadily. New steps have been taken in reform and opening up, peoples livelihoods have been better guaranteed, and the overall social situation has remained stable.December 31st, Futures.com analysts latest view: Brent crude oil futures prices tended to consolidate in the recent intraday trading session. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed a negative signal, and the oversold condition appeared excessive compared to price action, suggesting that bearish momentum is rapidly weakening. Meanwhile, positive support remains in place as prices continue to trade above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50). The trendline-following pattern remains unchanged, dominated by a short-term bullish corrective wave.December 31st, Futures.com analysts latest view: WTI crude oil futures fell in recent intraday trading after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed a negative signal after reaching overbought territory. This pullback aims to accumulate momentum and digest previous gains. This decline occurred against the backdrop of continued dynamic support, specifically as prices remain above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), which reinforces the stability and dominance of the short-term bullish corrective trend. In particular, the current price action continues along the support trendline, meaning the possibility of a price recovery in the near future remains.December 31st, Futures.com analysts latest view: International spot gold rose in recent intraday trading, gaining bullish momentum by stabilizing at the key support level of $4350, thus achieving the current cautious gains. However, as the price is still trading below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), the resulting negative pressure limits the possibility of a strong rebound in the short term, and the market is currently still dominated by a bearish corrective wave. Accompanying this cautious rise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown a negative signal after escaping oversold territory, indicating that the bearish trend may return. This means that any current rise may only be a temporary correction, after which gold may face selling pressure again.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Worry About Rates

Jimmy Khan

Feb 22, 2023 16:31


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini contract started overnight trading poorly and hasn't been making a lot of sense. Yet, the contract's high level of volatility persists, and as a result, downward pressure is beginning to build. It's important to note that the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA are located immediately below. Given that they are both rather flat, there may not actually be any momentum.


As it is slightly above the psychologically and structurally significant 4000 level, this may pave the way for a support level to develop in that approximate area. You must keep in mind that earnings season is now underway because it could cause the market to fluctuate. The moving averages and the psychologically significant 4000 level, if we were to break down below them, might drive the futures market and the index itself significantly lower.


It thus creates the chance of a decline down to the 3900 level, where we had experienced some buying pressure. Following that, there comes the 3800 level, which is considerably more significant and will get a lot of attention. When it comes to whether or not the market can save itself, we would be in that general area hanging on by a thread.


The previous two candlesticks have undoubtedly looked pretty bearish, and I think that may have some momentum built up in it. If the market were to flip around and bounce, then it may try to move towards the 4200 level. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which are released on Wednesday, will undoubtedly also be relevant. This ought to provide traders a good indication of what the Federal Reserve members discussed during the meeting and whether or not there is an overall hawkish mindset or if there are any ice cracks appearing. This will have a significant impact on the market.

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