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On June 30th, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECBs 25-basis-point interest rate hike in June was not a "precautionary" move to guard against future inflation risks, but rather a "prudent decision" based on the economic and inflation situation at the time. She stated that if the rate hike had not been implemented, inflation would have remained above the 2% target in 2027 and 2028, and new circumstances since the June meeting, including the decline in oil prices, have not changed the ECBs initial assessment. Lagarde emphasized that the ECB now has a more comprehensive system of data, indicators, and forecasts, and monetary policy will adhere to the principle of "data-driven, meeting-by-meeting decision-making," rather than relying on forward guidance. She also pointed out that in the current market environment, financial conditions often adjust themselves based on economic data, allowing monetary policy to take effect before formal decisions are made, giving the ECB more time to assess changes in the situation.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: We can continue to raise interest rates without worrying that monetary policy tightening itself will become a source of financial stress.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: In times of uncertainty, forward guidance loses its value.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: We face the prospect of rising overall and core inflation.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: The sustainability of the US-Iran peace agreement is far from guaranteed.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Worry About Rates

Jimmy Khan

Feb 22, 2023 16:31


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini contract started overnight trading poorly and hasn't been making a lot of sense. Yet, the contract's high level of volatility persists, and as a result, downward pressure is beginning to build. It's important to note that the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA are located immediately below. Given that they are both rather flat, there may not actually be any momentum.


As it is slightly above the psychologically and structurally significant 4000 level, this may pave the way for a support level to develop in that approximate area. You must keep in mind that earnings season is now underway because it could cause the market to fluctuate. The moving averages and the psychologically significant 4000 level, if we were to break down below them, might drive the futures market and the index itself significantly lower.


It thus creates the chance of a decline down to the 3900 level, where we had experienced some buying pressure. Following that, there comes the 3800 level, which is considerably more significant and will get a lot of attention. When it comes to whether or not the market can save itself, we would be in that general area hanging on by a thread.


The previous two candlesticks have undoubtedly looked pretty bearish, and I think that may have some momentum built up in it. If the market were to flip around and bounce, then it may try to move towards the 4200 level. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which are released on Wednesday, will undoubtedly also be relevant. This ought to provide traders a good indication of what the Federal Reserve members discussed during the meeting and whether or not there is an overall hawkish mindset or if there are any ice cracks appearing. This will have a significant impact on the market.

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