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According to Politico: The U.S. Democratic Party plans to hold a new round of voting on Tuesday night local time on a bill to limit the presidents war powers.On April 28, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated that recent tariff policy adjustments in the United States could increase the federal budget deficit by $1.1 trillion over ten years, but the exact figure is currently uncertain. CBO Director Swagel stated that the Supreme Courts ruling that Trumps use of emergency economic powers to impose tariffs was invalid will lead to a $2 trillion increase in the fiscal deficit over ten years; while other trade measures Trump has taken to date to compensate for this loss have added a total of $800 billion to $900 billion in revenue. Swagel stated, "Because the Supreme Court removed some tariffs, and the government reinstated some, the fiscal deficit over ten years will be about $1.1 trillion higher. The government has considerable power to impose new tariffs and adjust them, so its difficult to determine the exact deficit amount until the entire process is complete."On April 28th, German Chancellor Merz stated on the 27th that the United States lacks a strategic exit plan regarding the war with Iran. Speaking at an event at a high school in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, Merz said he couldnt see what kind of strategic exit plan the US would choose. He noted that Iran had been very sophisticated in negotiations, or rather, very sophisticated in refusing to negotiate, "letting the Americans go to Islamabad and leave empty-handed." Merz pointed out that once a war is started, "a way to exit must be found," and the US clearly lacks a strategy in this regard. He cited the USs actions in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as examples.On April 28, Pakistans Ministry of Information and Broadcasting issued a statement on the 27th denying Afghan media reports that Pakistan had launched airstrikes against a university and residential area in Kunar province in eastern Afghanistan. The statement called the reports "lies" intended to garner sympathy and conceal the Afghan governments support for the "Pakistani Taliban." The statement said, "Pakistans strikes were precise and based on intelligence."Oracle (ORCL.N), Borderplex, and Bloom Energy will power the Jupiter project using cleaner, more water-efficient fuel cell technology. Oracle stated that the Jupiter project will utilize up to 2.45 GW of Bloom Energys fuel cell capacity, covering all energy costs for the project. The project is expected to create 4,000 construction jobs and 1,500 permanent positions.

Stock Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Alice Wang

Jul 21, 2022 15:45

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Wednesday during trade, the S&P 500 raised its head over the 50 Day EMA, which is obviously a little success. Since there was a lot of noise between this level and the 4000 level, I believe it makes some sense that there was some hesitancy. However, I believe we have a good chance of reaching close to the 4100 level if we can break over the 4000 mark.


Looking at this chart, it would be very negative indeed if we were to reverse course and drop below the 3900 level, indicating that possibly the breakthrough was a false one. However, if we do rally, I believe we will continue to "climb the wall of anxiety" in an upward direction. Position sizing will be essential since, in any case, I believe the only thing you can probably bet on is a lot of loud behavior. It will be fascinating to see how this develops over time given that this is a violent short-covering rally.


Given the abundance of bad news now available, any collapse will likely gain a lot of momentum.


However, markets cannot continue to decline indefinitely, so this relief rally does have some logic. I believe we are in a position where we must see this through the lens of the longer-term probabilities, which continue to lead to reduced pricing over the long run. Whether or not it is a sustainable rally is an entirely separate thing. There may also be some short covering since the Federal Reserve will meet the following week.